Panic is beginning to set in at Kamala Harris headquarters — and there is a reason for that.
Brand-new polling was released by Quinnipiac on Wednesday showing that Harris is dropping like a stone in some of the swing states.
On September 18, when Quinnipiac conducted their last poll, Harris was up by five points over former President Trump. Today, Trump is up three points in that same poll, an eight-point swing in his favor.
In that same September poll, Harris was up one point in Wisconsin, but the new poll shows Trump up two points. In Pennsylvania, where she’s spending tons of money, she was up by six; now, she leads by three.
This was predictable because the reality is that Harris has always been a balloon. Once you puncture the balloon, the air is going to start pouring out.
It is quite possible that Trump’s vote is being underplayed because it is extremely difficult to get low and mid-propensity voters to answer poll questions.
If you’re a person who’s definitely going to vote, you want to talk to the pollster; you want to show your support for the candidate.
But let’s say there’s someone who sometimes votes and sometimes doesn’t. If a pollster calls them, that person is going to say, “Dude, I’m busy. I don’t even care that much.”
That’s the point: Trump is leading among low-propensity voters and mid-propensity voters 52 to 45. Harris is leading among high-propensity voters, 51 to 47.
The issue in the polling data is that it’s difficult to tell who is voting for Trump and who is not because they’re not responding to phone calls.
CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez confessed, “I had one source describe it to me this way: ‘People are nervous. They know the polls are tight and a lot of us are having these flashbacks to 2016 too. We know when they can go the wrong way and it can still feel fresh.’”
2016 is the key here. Comparing what’s happening now to 2016, Donald Trump is in a better poll position than he has been at any point in any race he has ever run.
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In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump leads Harris by three in Michigan. At this point in time in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 7.3 percentage point lead on him there. In 2020, Joe Biden had a 6.7% lead on Trump in Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Harris is leading by about half a point. But in October of 2020, Joe Biden was leading by five and a half points. Biden won the state by .63 percentage points. So that is a gap of 5% from what people thought was going to happen by polling data.
The same thing is happening in Pennsylvania. According to the latest Pennsylvania polling for Real Clear Politics, Trump is up by 0.3 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading by nine; at this point in October of 2020, Joe Biden was leading by seven.
Looking at these polling stats, it appears that Trump is in a pretty solid position if he is getting under-polled at all.
Harris is lagging behind minority voters. She’s lagging among black voters. She’s lagging among Hispanic voters. She’s really underperforming, and she’s going to underperform with men generally.
Kamala Harris has a very short shelf life. Politically, she’s like a bottle of milk on expiration date. There are five minutes before that stuff starts to smell sour.
Right now, she is going sour with the American people. The American people are sick of the “brat.” They’re sick of the “vibes.” They don’t believe in the “joy.” They don’t believe any of that.
She’s an empty suit. The lady is an entire men’s warehouse of empty suits.
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