Ohio State-Oregon: Will the Buckeyes slow down Oregon’s offense?

In a week highlighted by marquee ranked matchups, No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) face No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0) in a Big Ten showdown for the first time. Both teams have stayed undefeated through five weeks with a 2-0 record in conference.

Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has taken the nation by storm, quickly becoming a top option in an offense led by QB Will Howard. Smith’s spectacular performances should be on full display against a Ducks team that, despite a slow start to the year, has picked up recently with three straight wins by double digits. QB Dillon Gabriel, who entered the season as the Heisman betting favorite now finds himself in a pivotal matchup not only for his own Heisman case but in the Big Ten and College Football playoff race. Ohio State opened as a 3-point favorite earlier in the week and the line has since stayed the same with the total set at 53.5.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Ohio State (-3)
Money line: Ohio State (-165), Oregon (+140)
Over/under: 53.5 (-110/-110)

First-half spread: Ohio State (-110), Oregon (-110)
First-half money line: Ohio State (-150), Oregon (+120)
First-half total points: O/U 22.5 points (-185, +140)

Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Ohio State-Oregon under 53.5 points

Oregon’s offensive line issues could be a significant factor in this matchup. The team has struggled to establish a consistent starting unit, resulting in some “patchwork” solutions. While Oregon has averaged 5 yards per carry, this statistic is inflated by a 7.5 YPC performance against Oregon State. The Ducks have averaged 4.3 yards or fewer per rush in three of their five games played.

The offense has shown inconsistency, barely scraping by with a 24-14 win over Idaho and narrowly securing a 37-34 victory against Boise State. QB Dillon Gabriel, sacked seven times in his first two games, has since enjoyed better protection with zero sacks. This inconsistency makes it difficult to confidently back Oregon as an underdog.

What’s certain is that this will be the best defense and pass rush Gabriel has faced by a wide margin. Ohio State has the second-ranked pass rush in the nation according to PFF, converting one-third of their total pressures into sacks. The Buckeyes are well-positioned to exploit Oregon’s offensive inconsistencies.

The Ducks’ passing game primarily consists of short routes and TE targets, often overlooking open receivers downfield. Gabriel ranks outside the top 20 in deep passing (23rd) among qualifying quarterbacks, with only a 47% completion rate on such attempts and three passing touchdowns. Gabriel might still be adjusting to a new offensive system and teammates. Facing the Buckeyes’ defense while adapting is far from ideal so I anticipate Oregon’s offense will be limited in this matchup.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Oregon: would be a home underdog for first time since 2018 (+3.5 vs No. 7 Washington); would snap 34-game streak of being favored at home

• Oregon: 0-3 ATS at home this season; the last time the Ducks failed to cover first four home games of a season was 2021

• Oregon: 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog

• Ohio State: 8-2 ATS in last 10 conference games

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