Lane Kiffin has finally recruited a defense to Ole Miss.
Texas A&M transfer DT Walter Nolen has been devastating against the run.
Florida transfer DE Princely Umanmielen has 20 pressures and four sacks through five games off the edge.
Arkansas transfer LB Chris Paul Jr. has legitimately been a top-10 FBS linebacker.
Many of their season-long metrics are inflated following blowouts of FCS and G5 programs.
Still, the Rebels defense passed the eye test last week against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to three points on 4.2 yards per play and -0.28 EPA per Play (8th percentile).
They sacked LaNorris Sellers six times, with Nolen recording three.
This is the most significant comparison we have for this matchup, as the same South Carolina offense that was useless against Ole Miss dropped 33 points and 430 yards at over 7 yards per play on LSU’s lifeless defense in a near upset.
I have some concerns regarding the Ole Miss offense, which has underwhelmed over the past few weeks.
But Jaxson Dart managed over 10 yards per attempt against South Carolina’s top-10 secondary last week, so I’m banking on him shredding LSU’s secondary that ranks sub-100 nationally in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed.
Garrett Nussmeier leads a potent LSU aerial attack, but the Rebels are a more well-rounded, two-way football team.
They should earn a few tough stops while rolling over Brian Kelly’s defense for 60 minutes in a convincing road victory.
The pick: Ole Miss (-3.5).
California (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The overvalued 5-0 Panthers are due for a loss.
They should’ve lost to Cincinnati in Week 2, and they should’ve lost to West Virginia in Week 3.
A late-game comeback will soon fall short.
Conversely, the undervalued 3-2 Bears are due for a big win.
They lost to Florida State in Week 4 despite out-gaining the Seminoles by nearly 130 yards.
They lost to Miami last week despite holding a 35-10 second-half lead.
Cal’s defense leaves much to be desired, but the Bears boast a top-50 secondary by Success Rate allowed and PFF’s Coverage grades.
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Pitt runs a pass-heavy offense behind Eli Holstein, which should play to Cal’s strength.
While Cal has an All-ACC caliber running back in Jaydn Ott, quarterback Fernando Mendoza is starting to find his stride.
After compiling nearly 600 yards across the past two weeks against two rock-solid secondaries, Cal’s offense has snuck into the top 30 nationally in Pass Success Rate.
That should be the key against a Pitt defense that ranks among the bottom 15 teams in EPA per Dropback allowed.
I project the Panthers as closer to 1.5-point favorites on Saturday, giving us around two points of edge against the market.
Last week: 3-0. Texas A&M (W), Vanderbilt (W), Minnesota (W)
2024 Season: 9-9.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
