The GOP Senate PAC worries about these states — but sees stars in others

Republicans reveling in Donald Trump’s gains against Kamala Harris in recent polling may need to curb their enthusiasm, as new internal surveys from a GOP political-action committee say the Senate is a heavier lift.

That’s what the Senate Leadership Fund contends in an internal “polling and media update” released last week, as the group preps for the stretch run.

The two biggest pressure points: Nebraska and Texas, where incumbents Deb Fischer and Ted Cruz lag behind the Trump-Vance ticket, forcing the SLF to look at 11th-hour Hail Marys to “guard the flanks.”

The former is a “serious trouble-spot as polls show Sen. Deb Fischer in a tight race with Dan Osborn, an Independent in the mold of Bernie Sanders.”

SLF is “polling to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat.”

And in the Lone Star State, Ted Cruz clings to a 1-point lead against better-financed, bigger-spending Colin Allred, even as Trump leads Harris by 5.

GOP “outside groups” are spending, and the SLF is mulling getting involved to save the incumbent and a seat Republicans must hold to take control of the Senate next year.

Michigan may be a lost cause, with Mike Rogers 8 points behind Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the contest for the seat of outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

“The climb in Mike Rogers’ unfavorable numbers and his drop on the ballot are a textbook case of what happens when a candidate isn’t on the air to shape his image and deflect attacks,” SLF comments. 

Trump is down 3 in the state in the internal polling, suggesting GOP insiders may be souring on their prospects in the blue-wall state for another election cycle. But SLF is committing $22.8 million all the same this month. 

The question, though: Is it too late to make up that gap? 

Certainly, there is some good news, including from Big Sky Country, where the SLF and allies “pushed Jon Tester’s image and ballot position upside-down, giving Tim Sheehy a small but durable lead,” which could help Republicans push out the Democratic incumbent.

And Pennsylvania shows Dave McCormick with a fighting chance against Bob Casey, cutting the incumbent’s lead from 5 points to 2.

“No GOP Senate candidate this year lives up to Winston Churchill’s famous injunction ‘Deserve Victory’ more than Dave McCormick,” the SLF declares. “McCormick’s campaign has painstakingly built a right-side-up image while SLF and others have degraded Casey’s job approval by a net -15 points.” The $53.1M in budget has helped with that.

Wisconsin is also worth watching, as Republicans have “turned Tammy Baldwin’s image upside-down and tightened the ballot, as Donald Trump and Eric Hovde are moving up.”

Trump is up 1 point against Harris, while Hovde is down 1 against the Democratic perennial, and optimism abounds for the Badger State, where SLF has committed $17.5 million in October buys.

“As we enter the final month, Tammy Baldwin’s negatives are higher than Hovde’s and the ballot has closed to a statistical dead-heat. With Trump edging ahead and a generic Senate ballot that shows room for further growth, this race has become a top priority for SLF.”

Ohio offers another pickup opportunity, against entrenched Democrat Sherrod Brown, albeit with a caveat that GOP nominee Bernie Moreno has to “close the sale.” While Trump is up 4 in the internal polling, Moreno is down 6 to Brown, suggesting a sizable chunk of split-ticket Buckeyes still exist.

The SLF chalks that up to Brown having “massively outspent Moreno on TV, inflicting serious damage on Moreno’s image that is preventing him from closing the ballot gap.” 

Moreno has gotten ample support, it should be noted, with $80.2 million in SLF money for September and October, as well as $35.5 million from American Crossroads. 

Meanwhile, former Gov. Larry Hogan’s longshot bid in Maryland remains so, as he’s down 7 points to Angela Alsobrooks.

While in a sense that’s an achievement given Trump is in a 29-point hole in the state, there is a potential window.

“The race isn’t over yet: Alsobrooks is being sharply criticized in local news for cheating on her taxes, and those revelations are being amplified in ads by Maryland’s Future PAC,” SLF says. 

To date, that PAC has committed $25 million to messaging. But whether that will be enough to make the race “a choice between a negatively defined Alsobrooks vs. Hogan instead of Red vs. Blue” is an open question three weeks out.