Putting up five runs on Tarik Skubal is impressive, and the Guardians should be feeling better about their hitting entering their ALCS matchup with the Yankees.
Still, their larger body of work suggests the two opposing lineups aren’t very close.
In the second half of the regular season, Cleveland hitters had a wRC+ of 93, the lowest mark of any team in the playoffs.
They ranked 30th in hard-hit rate in that span and held a 12th-ranked BB/K ratio.
In the second half of the season, the Yankees had a wRC+ of 119, while ranking first in BB/K ratio and third in hard-hit rate.
One of the prevailing arguments entering the playoffs as to why the Yankees might fizzle out again was that if Aaron Judge and Juan Soto went cold, the rest of the offense would follow.
Judge and Soto weren’t at their best in the ALDS, but the Yankees were still able to get past a strong pitching staff.
Giancarlo Stanton looks to have found his stroke again, and depth pieces Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres had a lot of quality at-bats in the series.
Cleveland’s most notable edge over the Yankees is its bullpen, which ranked first this season with a 2.57 ERA.
However, Cleveland’s relief staff was forced to throw 26 ²/₃ innings against Detroit and will likely be heavily worked in this series, too.
Yankees relievers threw 15 ²/₃ scoreless innings against Kansas City, and key arms Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle look to be trending into top form.
The Yankees starting rotation had a 3.85 ERA (No. 11) in 2024, compared to a Guardians staff that posted a 24th-ranked 4.40 ERA. The Yankees’ advantage here would be even more pronounced if Nestor Cortes returns.
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Guardians starters could be chased early in the series, and if Cleveland’s overworked bullpen isn’t dominant, this one might not be very close.
THE PLAY: Yankees ALCS spread -1.5 games (+102, FanDuel).
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Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
