Hello Yahoo! It’s been a pleasure writing each week about the players projected to play above or below their usual level, and it’s been so cool having my projection system, THE BLITZ, available to Yahoo+ users as part of Yahoo’s suite of tools. This will be the final edition of this column for the 2025 season, so if you’re still alive in your league, best of luck to you this week!
Josh Downs, Colts
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 7.3 targets, 5.1 receptions, 55 yards, 0.34 TD
Advertisement
Week 17 vs. YTD: WR26 vs. WR46
The fantasy and betting communities have been down on the Indy passing attack ever since Philip Rivers took over … but THE BLITZ hasn’t been. Others are starting to come around after a strong performance from Rivers on Monday, and THE BLITZ is expecting another one this week.
While this could apply to any of their pass-catchers, Downs is the most interesting relative to his year-to-date performance, given that his route share has risen from 62% prior to Week 15 to 88% in two weeks with Rivers. Downs has generated a 22% target share in this span, and the matchup this week is a good one at home, in a dome, with a passing game script. You could do much worse than Downs in a pinch this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.5 carries, 2.8 receptions, 96 yards, 0.95 TD
Advertisement
Week 17 vs. YTD: RB7 vs. RB39
With TreVeyon Henderson in concussion protocol and unlikely to play in Week 17, Stevenson should have the backfield almost entirely to himself. D’Ernest Johnson will mix in a bit, but this could be a very heavy workload for Stevenson, who only slid into the backup role because he got injured, and Henderson’s performance was too great to ignore.
But make no mistake, the Patriots coaching staff loves Stevenson, and he figures to see a ton of work both on the ground and through the air. And going up against a bad Jets team, the game script couldn’t get much better for him to see a heavy workload.
Advertisement
Michael Mayer, Raiders
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 7.1 targets, 5.2 receptions, 53 yards, 0.28 TD
Week 17 vs. YTD: TE6 vs. TE50
Brock Bowers unexpectedly went on IR this week, leaving Michael Mayer as the TE1 for Las Vegas. While the offense as a whole has left a lot to be desired (and now will be without its top pass-catcher), they’ve also experienced a good deal of bad variance on top of their poor play. With just the modest bit of regression we saw from them last week, Mayer becomes one of the most interesting tight ends on the whole slate.
In two games he played without Bowers earlier this year, his route share spiked from 36% to 85%, and his target share followed suit from 9% to 21%. This is a guy who comes with a strong pedigree (early second-round pick just two years ago) and whom the Vegas coaching staff has spoken highly of, going as far as calling him a No. 1 tight end in the league earlier this year. I am very in on him this week and next.
Advertisement
Christian Watson (and other Packers pass-catchers)
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 5.2 targets, 2.9 receptions, 42 yards, 0.33 TD
Week 17 vs. YTD: WR49 vs. WR27 (per game)
Watson has been highly impressive of late and has picked up a ton of hype throughout the fantasy community, but this week sets up as a potential letdown spot. For one thing, QB Jordan Love is in concussion protocol and, as of this writing, isn’t looking likely to play. Backup Malik Willis would be enough of a downgrade, but he is also injured and has a chance to sit out as well. In two starts without Love last year, the Packers went extremely run-heavy, running the ball 38% more than the average team (context-adjusted) compared to just 5% more with Love. This game also projects as the slowest-paced of the week by far, reducing total play volume. And with a fully healthy wide receiver room, there is some risk of losing snaps for Watson and his teammates as the team juggles playing time.
Advertisement
James Cook III, Bills
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.1 carries, 1.8 receptions, 102 yards, 0.58 TD
Week 17 vs. YTD: RB11 vs. RB6
Cook has been one of the best values in fantasy this season, but much of that value has come from positive game scripts with Buffalo playing from ahead. In Week 17, the Bills face off against the Eagles with just a 1.5-point spread. In a close game, Cook is less likely to see the kind of workload on the ground he’s used to (especially if the Bills aren’t leading late), and his pass-game usage has never really been impressive.
Throw in the fact that both teams play at a slow pace, and that their 21.5 implied team total would be fewer points scored than all but four of their games this year, and we have the makings of a good-but-not-great outing here for Cook.
Advertisement
Saquon Barkley, Eagles
THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.5 carries, 2.4 receptions, 97 yards, 0.58 TD
Saquon is in a very similar boat to Cook, except for the fact that he has been a disappointment for those who drafted him, rather than a value. But on the opposite side of this close, slow-paced game, Barkley is also unlikely to be able to post a big score with Philly being forced to pass more often than usual. This is especially detrimental to Barkley because he’s gotten just two receptions over the past four weeks, with Will Shipley taking on more third-down work and Barkley’s target share being cut in half from 14% down to 7%. THE BLITZ doesn’t even call Barkley an RB1 in most fantasy leagues this week.
