The Week 17 NFL schedule features a smorgasbord of holiday delights.
For starters, there are a trio of matchups between double-digit-win teams (five of whom have already punched their postseason tickets, and all of whom are battling for playoff seeding).
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There’s also a clash of division rivals headed in opposite directions (with one firmly in the playoffs and the other on the verge of being eliminated).
And there’s an interconference prime-time battle in which both squads are in must-win mode — and both may not have their starting quarterbacks.
Which brings us to our holiday gift to you: a deep dive into current and historical NFL betting trends related to all five of these matchups (four of which feature point spreads of 3 points or less).
(All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 39.5)
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
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Money line: Texans +110/Chargers -130
• Houston barely extended its winning streak to seven in Week 16, escaping with a 23-21 victory over the Raiders.
The Texans never came close to covering as 14-point home favorites, snapping the team’s 5-0 ATS run.
• The Chargers have won and covered four in a row — the most recent triumph a 34-17 rout of Dallas as 1.5-point road underdogs on Sunday.
It was Los Angeles’ third straight outright victory as an underdog, following upsets of Philadelphia (22-19 in Week 14) and Kansas City (16-13 in Week 15).
• Since starting the season with three straight losses and non-covers, Houston is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. During this stretch, the Texans are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road, and 4-1 SU and ATS as underdogs.
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Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on positive runs of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS overall, 4-0 SU and ATS at home and 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite.
One lengthy NFL betting trend working against the Bolts: They haven’t covered the spread in five consecutive games since a 5-0 ATS run to start the 2014 season.
• Houston’s top-ranked defense has surrendered 20-plus points in consecutive games for the first time in 2025. However, only two opponents have scored more than three TDs against the Texans: Seattle (27-19 win in Week 7) and Jacksonville (36-29 loss in Week 10).
The Chargers’ defense has been similarly dominant, holding four straight opponents to less than 20 points. Furthermore, that defense has surrendered more than 20 points just once in the last eight games.
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• Chargers QB Justin Herbert had a league-low three interceptions in the 2024 regular season, then threw four in last year’s wild-card playoff loss at Houston.
Herbert has thrown 12 picks this season, including at least one in 10 of the last 13 games. This week, he faces a Texans defense that has recorded 17 interceptions (tied with the Chargers for third-most in the league).
Herbert’s odds to throw an interception Saturday: -140.
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-4, 40.5)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Ravens +180/Packers -220
• Baltimore and Green Bay experienced similar negative outcomes in Week 16. Both teams blew late fourth-quarter leads, lost their star quarterbacks to injury and are now fighting for their playoff lives — although thanks to Detroit’s 23-10 Christmas Day loss to Minnesota, the Packers are now in the postseason.
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Facing New England at home, the Ravens squandered an 11-point advantage with nine minutes to go and fell 28-24 as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football.
Twenty-four hours earlier, the Packers frittered away a 10-point lead with two minutes to play at Chicago, losing 22-16 in overtime as 1-point underdogs.
Adding injury to insult, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (back) and Green Bay’s Jordan Love (concussion) didn’t finish their respective games last week. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday night’s showdown at Lambeau Field.
• The Ravens have followed a five-game SU winning streak by losing three of their last four. They’re also mired in a 1-5 ATS slump (all as the favorite).
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On the bright side, Baltimore is riding a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS), with the defense surrendering a total of 41 points (10.3 per contest).
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• The Packers, who preceded their loss at Chicago with a 34-26 defeat at Denver, have lost consecutive games for the second time in 2025.
Since starting the season with blowout home wins over Detroit (27-13) and Washington (27-18), Green Bay is mired in ATS slumps of 4-9 overall, 3-8 as a favorite and 2-3 at home.
The good news for the Packers: They haven’t endured a three-game losing skid since a four-game slide from Weeks 4-8 in 2023 (bye week included).
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• While Love’s status for Saturday’s game is in doubt, there are two NFL betting trends worth noting in case he does suit up:
The Packers’ quarterback has thrown for less than 235 yards in six of his last seven starts (and nine of 15 overall) and completed fewer than 20 passes in five of his last six outings (and 10 of 15 overall).
Then again, the Ravens’ secondary yields 242.7 passing yards per game (fifth-most in the NFL). Last week, second-year Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw for a career-best 380 yards at Baltimore.
• Ravens RB Derrick Henry had 128 rushing yards on just 18 carries against New England, his best outing since torching Buffalo for 169 yards in Week 1.
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Henry has posted back-to-back 100-yard outings, and he’s eclipsed 90 rushing yards in three straight games and six of his last 10.
On Saturday, the two-time NFL rushing champ is projected for 81.5 rushing yards — against a Packers defense that hasn’t allowed a single player to reach 70 rushing yards in the last seven weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6, 48.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Jaguars -275/Colts +225
• Jacksonville went on the road in Week 16 and pummeled the Broncos 34-20 as a 3.5-point underdog.
In the process, the Jaguars snapped Denver’s 11-game winning streak and extended their own winning streak to six in a row.
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Jacksonville covered the spread in all six games during its current heater — the team’s first 6-0 ATS run since 2010. The last time the Jags covered in seven consecutive contests: Weeks 10-16 in 2007.
• The Colts’ cold spell reached five in a row with Monday night’s 48-27 home loss to San Francisco.
Since starting the season 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, Indianapolis has gone 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
The blowout loss to the 49ers aside, the Colts are still 6-2 SU at home and 4-2 ATS as underdogs.
• The Jaguars clobbered Indianapolis 36-19 as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 14. In the process, Jacksonville knocked out the Colts’ top two quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (season-ending Achilles injury) and rookie Riley Leonard (knee sprain). That led Indy to drag 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement and insert him into the starting lineup.
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Despite the scoreboard results, Rivers has vastly exceeded expectations in his first two starts since 2020, completing 66% of his passes for 397 yards and three touchdowns.
• With their Week 14 victory at home, the Jags have now won six of the last eight meetings against Indy.
Jacksonville also is 17-3-1 ATS against the Colts since the start of the 2015 season (7-2-1 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium).
Another rivalry-related NFL betting trend worth mentioning: Each of the last six Jaguars-Colts clashes have surpassed the closing total. All six featured at least 49 combined points.
• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has 15 touchdown passes in his last five games, tossing multiple scores in each contest. It’s the longest such streak in Lawrence’s five-year career.
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Lawrence threw for two scores in Week 14 against a Colts secondary that just allowed the 49ers’ Brock Purdy to throw five TDs.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 44)
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Eagles +105/Bills -125
• Buffalo traveled to Cleveland last week and barely held off the Browns 23-20, failing to cash as a 10.5-point road favorite.
On the field, the Bills have won four in a row and seven of nine. However, they’re just 5-4 ATS during this stretch.
In fact, Buffalo has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last eight contests. Also, the team’s 7-1 SU record at home is offset by a 3-4 ATS mark (1-4 ATS as a favorite).
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• Philadelphia rallied from a 10-7 halftime deficit at Washington in Week 16 and cruised to a 29-18 victory as a 7-point road favorite.
It was the Eagles’ second consecutive victory and spread-cover, following an 0-3 SU and ATS nosedive.
One interesting NFL betting trend pertaining to this contest: The straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of Philadelphia’s last 14 games.
• Going back to the start of the 2024 season, Philadelphia is 5-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.
The Eagles were underdogs of 3 points or fewer in each game, four of which were on the road. The other: a 40-22 rout of the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.
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• Philadelphia’s game at Washington last week barely eclipsed the 43.5-point total, ending the Eagles’ 6-0 under streak.
It was the fifth time in Philly’s last seven road games that the total cleared 44 points.
Meanwhile, the Bills have hurdled the total in three straight weeks, and the over is 5-2 in Buffalo this season. Six of those games in Orchard Park, New York, topped 44 points. The only exception: the Bills’ 23-20 Week 5 loss to New England.
• Eagles running back Saquon Barkley shredded the Commanders for 132 rushing yards last week, his second-highest total of the season.
That effort aside, Barkley has only topped 60 rushing yards six times this season. This week, the NFL’s reigning rushing champ takes on the league’s 30th-ranked run defense, as Buffalo yields 144.3 ground yards per game.
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• Jalen Hurts has failed to get into the end zone in four straight games, matching his longest touchdown drought since taking over Philadelphia’s offense in 2021.
Hurts will face a Bills defense that has allowed an NFL-high 24 rushing scores. However, only three quarterbacks have scored against Buffalo: Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye (twice).
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 52.5)
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Bears +140/49ers -165
• The Bears pulled off arguably the most stunning comeback of the NFL season in Week 16, scoring 10 points in the final two minutes to force overtime against Green Bay.
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On the first possession of the extra session, Chicago recovered a Packers fumble and immediately cashed in the turnover with a 46-yard touchdown pass to steal a 22-16 victory as a 1-point home favorite.
Since beginning the season with back-to-back losses, the playoff-bound Bears are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. They’re also 5-2 SU and ATS both on the road and as an underdog.
• Brock Purdy threw a career-high five touchdown passes to lead the 49ers to a 48-27 beatdown of the Colts in the Week 16 Monday Night Football contest.
San Francisco easily cashed as a 4.5-point road underdog and is now on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll.
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Since the calendar flipped to November, the Niners are 6-1 SU and ATS, with the offense averaging 33.1 points per contest.
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• Chicago’s NFL betting trends on Sunday Night Football aren’t pretty: Since 2019, the Bears have lost eight consecutive Sunday games under the lights, going 1-7 ATS.
Then again, San Francisco has split its 10 SNF games this decade, going 4-6 ATS. However, the Niners have won four straight Sunday night home games (3-1 ATS).
• The over is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven. Conversely, five of Chicago’s last seven have fallen short of the total.
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Overall, the 49ers have cleared 52 points five times this season (all in the last seven games), while the Bears have done so three times.
• San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, who had two receiving touchdowns in Monday’s win at Indianapolis, has scored in five straight games and 10 of his last 12.
During this 12-game span, the dual-threat running back has a TD in five of six home contests.
• Bears running back D’Andre Swift is averaging 80.6 rushing yards in his last 10 games — and that includes a 15-yard dud against Pittsburgh in Week 12.
Swift hurdled 60 rushing yards in seven of those games, including five contests with at least 90 yards.
