Fantasy football championship week. Week 17. The final Tale of the Take for 2025. It’s been a wild ride of tall tales that hit big and a few that face-planted, but you stayed locked in from kickoff until now and I appreciate you for it.
If these calls helped you advance or kept you entertained on Thursdays throughout the season, that’s a win in my book.
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We ain’t playing around here this week. We’re going for week-flipping outcomes. I’ll lay out the tale, then give you the take you can use when it’s time to set the lineup that decides the trophy.
Trevor Lawrence, Week 17’s QB1 overall
The Tale: Trevor Lawrence is straight up balling right now. There’s no other way to put it. Since Week 12, he’s been the QB1 by 5.0 points per game, averaging 26.7 and stacking production like a closer. Boom, boom, boom.
From Weeks 12 through 16, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns, and the surge matches what we’re seeing on the field. It started a little rocky, but the chemistry between Lawrence and Liam Coen is fully in sync. They’re ripping off commanding wins, and Lawrence is answering every week with big-time throws and clean decision-making. He’s finding answers in the red zone with his legs or his arm. He’s protecting the ball and playing with the type of confidence that tilts a fantasy matchup by halftime.
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Now the Jags roll into Week 17 with a chance to finish the job against Indianapolis. The Colts have watched their season slide from division favorite to just hanging on, and this defense has been a target for fantasy lineups. Jacksonville still has something to grab here, and Lawrence is playing like a quarterback who refuses to give the week back. You can feel when the switch flips. The processing is crisp, the placement is money and the urgency shows up, snap after snap. You want volume, you want touchdowns, you want a quarterback who has been carrying lineups since Thanksgiving. That’s T-Law in this spot.
We’re not playing around. As Denzel Washington said, “I’m leaving here with something.” Week 17, we’re leaving here with a fantasy championship, thanks to Lawrence.
The Take: Trevor Lawrence finishes against the Indianapolis Colts as the fantasy QB1 on the week.
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The December King returns; Derrick Henry is back
The Tale: December belongs to Derrick Henry. Baltimore dropped one at home to New England, yet the only reason it stayed tight was No. 22 taking over. He scored two touchdowns, averaged 7.0 a carry then barely saw the ball in the fourth. Head Coach John Harbaugh said it was inexcusable to go away from Henry late. Lamar Jackson left before halftime with a back issue. Lesson learned.
This week, the plan is simple: hand it to Henry and let him set the tone.
Now, it’s Green Bay. The Packers are banged up and just gashed by the run versus the Chicago Bears last week. D’Andre Swift went 13 for 58, Kyle Monangai went 9 for 50 and the Bears rolled to 150 rushing yards on 5.8 a pop. On the season, Green Bay is allowing about 103 rushing yards per game, which sits 22nd.
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This isn’t the spot to get cute. Baltimore needs to get in, control the clock and get out on a short week with Lamar less than 100% (if he even plays). Henry is the Ravens’ hammer in December. Feed him early, finish drives with him then close the door when defenders want no part of tackling No. 22 late. Last week’s mistake won’t repeat. Volume meets December form and the outcome feels inevitable.
The Take: Derrick Henry finishes as a top-five running back on the week.
Bengals vs. Cardinals = fantasy fireworks
The Tale: You should be grinning from ear to ear if you roster pieces from this game. Two teams at the bottom are about to give us a top-shelf fantasy script with a 52.5 total and Cincinnati favored by 7.5. This is the start-everyone game. The Bengals are allowing 402 yards per game, most in the league. Arizona isn’t far behind at 350, seventh worst. That’s the recipe you hunt in championship week. Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase is live from the opening drive. Chase Brown gets a runway against a front that leaks chunk gains. Even Mike Gesicki can get home if you’re digging for a tight end.
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On the other side, I know Jacoby Brissett let you down last week and Trey McBride didn’t bail you out, but the matchup swings back in their favor. Cincinnati has been a target for tight ends; it allows the fourth-most passing yards per game to the position. Arizona allows the 10th-most rushing yards and the 11th-most passing yards, which is a problem when the opposing quarterback is Joe Burrow. This isn’t the spot to get cute or overthink last week’s dud. Brissett distributes, McBride reclaims the volume, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson both carry spike potential, and Michael Carter slides in as a strong flex against the league’s softest run group.
It’s a true fantasy dream that checks every box — high total, bad defenses, concentrated usage and a quarterback on one side who can force the pace for all of us.
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The Take: Start everybody in Bengals-Cardinals for Week 17.
Ashton Jeanty’s volume rolls
The Tale: These teams are heading in the same direction for the wrong reasons, but this tale is about how bad the Giants’ defense has been. They are giving up 150 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the league and a league high 5.5 per rush. They have allowed the fourth-most total yards per game and it shows in every phase. Missed fits, sloppy angles, late tackles. Yes, Brian Burns and Abdul Carter can flash with pressure yet this unit still struggles to finish drives or flip field position. That is the type of team you can attack with a strong running game.
Especially with a rookie back who is built to handle contact and keeps gaining yards with every touch.
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Last week, we finally saw Ashton Jeanty look like the top running back drafted. The Raiders committed to him early to manage the game and he answered with 24 carries for 128 yards at 5.3 a tote, plus one explosive catch that reminded everyone he is dangerous when the ball finds space. It was his first 100-yard day since Week 5 and his first multi-touchdown game since that same Week 5 performance. The volume is bankable, the role is secure and the motivation is real with a path to 1,000 on the season.
New York has not stopped anyone on the ground all year. This is where you lean on a workhorse, play from ahead then salt the fourth with body blows that add up by the whistle.
Jeanty can play. The matchup is outstanding. The clock will be your friend once Jeanty starts stacking first downs.
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The Take: Ashton Jeanty finishes as a top-three running back on the week.
Justin Jefferson, for old times’ sake
The Tale: It hasn’t been the season anyone signed up for with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings have shuffled quarterbacks all year with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer taking snaps, and now McCarthy is out again for championship week. Still, you saw the door crack open last week. I told you the Giants matchup made Jefferson viable, and while it wasn’t one of those vintage monster spikes, it was a step forward for a star who spent about a month stuck around two catches a game. Jefferson answered with six for 85 and looked like the steadying force this offense needed when everything else felt shaky.
This is a spot in which Jefferson should be able to do damage. Detroit is in a defensive free fall. Since Week 12, no team is allowing more than 400 total yards a game except the Lions, and they aren’t just over 400 — they’re bleeding 458. They’re giving up a league-high 313 passing yards per game and close to 150 on the ground. Pressure hasn’t arrived, even with Aidan Hutchinson.
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On the other side, the Vikings defense has made life hard for quarterbacks, allowing the fewest passing yards since Week 12, which can tilt the game toward controlled targets for the best player on the field. That’s Jefferson. New quarterback or not, the job is simple in Week 17 — throw Jefferson the ball, then keep throwing it to him.
The Take: Justin Jefferson finishes as a top-15 wide receiver on the week.
