Former President Donald Trump has several pathways to the White House with mere weeks left until Election Day.
Before looking at the seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — Trump will theoretically enter election night with 219 electoral votes based on the states he is already expected to win. At the same time, Harris is thought to be at 226 votes before factoring in swing states. Here are some of Trump’s available paths.
Trump’s Easiest Path: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania
Trump’s easiest path to victory includes three swing states, all on the East Coast: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. These three states would put Trump precisely at 270 votes, securing him a second term.
This appears to be Trump’s easiest path, considering it is just three states, two of which–North Carolina and Georgia–historically tilt in the GOP’s favor. North Carolina, the only swing state to go for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, has voted Republican in five of the last six presidential elections. The same applies to Georgia, which was a historically red state before it went blue for the first time this millennium in 2020.
As of Monday, Trump held a half-percentage point edge in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average in both Georgia and North Carolina. If he lands the 16 electoral votes each state offers, he would have a theoretical 251 electoral votes. From there, he would only need Pennsylvania to reach the 270 threshold.
The RCP polling average showed Trump with a razor-thin .3 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania as of Monday afternoon.
Paths Two and Three: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and either Michigan or Wisconsin
These secondary pathways come into play if Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina but loses Pennsylvania. While the Keystone state seems imperative to a Harris victory, it does not make or break Trump.
Trump can still prevail if he takes Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and either Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes or Michigan’s 15 fifteen electoral votes. With Arizona and Wisconsin, Trump would land at 272 electoral votes, and with Michigan instead of Wisconsin, he would retake the White House at 277 votes.
In the RCP average, Trump leads by one 1 percent in Arizona and 0.9 percent in Michigan, but Harris has a 0.3 percent edge in Wisconsin.
Like North Carolina and Georgia, Arizona has voted for the GOP’s candidate in five of the last six presidential elections. The lone election it voted Democrat this century was in 2020 when President Joe Biden narrowly won by 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin regularly voted for Democrats before flipping red in 2016. In 2020, they each went to Biden.
Path Four: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada
While Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, he does face a potential obstacle in Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), the state’s Republican gubernatorial nominee who is embroiled in scandals over his alleged behavior on adult websites.
Robinson trails Attorney General Josh Stein (D) by 14 points in the latest Emerson College/Nextstar Media poll and could potentially be a drag on the ticket. If North Carolina goes to Harris, Trump can still win the white house while also forfeiting both Wisconsin and Michigan.
Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada would put Trump at 271 electoral votes. He would also win with either Wisconsin or Michigan in place of either Nevada or Arizona. Trump currently has a 0.2 percent edge in Nevada, per the RCP average.
Path Five: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin
In an event where Harris wins both Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trump can still break the 270 threshold with the other Rust Belt states, Arizona, and Georgia. He would hit 271 electoral votes with these four swing states.
RCP’s Averages Translated to the Electoral Map
If RCP’s polling averages accurately reflect the state of race and are applied to an electoral map, Trump would win in a landslide with every swing state but Wisconsin. This scenario would result in 302 electoral votes for the former president.
