We made it to December. The fantasy football playoffs are a week away in most leagues. Let’s take a good look at the upcoming playoff schedules. We’ll attack the passing schedules here; earlier in the week, we hit schedules for running backs.
I run this piece every year and it always requires disclaimers. What I have below is the ranking of passing playoff schedules (Weeks 15, 16 and 17) from easiest to hardest. The ranks are cumulative in nature and are a mixture of data (weighted to recent results), observation and special sauce. The rankings do not take into account home and road sites, potential weather or unusual team motivations (say, a team resting starters if it doesn’t need a game). The rankings also require your own adjustment if you don’t need Week 15 — if you ultimately secure a bye, that first slate becomes meaningless.
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And, of course, the juiciest Week 17 matchup isn’t worth a thing if you can’t get to the finals.
Also, remember that I’m only ranking schedules here, not players. I’m certainly not telling you to play Geno Smith over Drake Maye because of the schedule strength. This exercise is a good way to break ties, and something to consider as you do your own self-scouting on the eve of the money weeks.
I will break up the passing schedule strength into two buckets — one for both quarterbacks and wide receivers, and one exclusively for tight ends.
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Quarterback/Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule
The Favorable Slates
Vikings: @Cowboys, @Giants, Lions
Commanders: @Giants, Eagles, Cowboys
Dolphins: @Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers
49ers: Titans, @Colts, Bears
Raiders: @Eagles, @Texans, Giants
Chargers: @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans
Falcons: @Buccaneers, @Cardinals, Rams
Giants: Commanders, Vikings, @Raiders
It’s frustrating to see so many year-end schedules tied to mediocre quarterbacks. J.J. McCarthy would need at least one breakout game before I’d reopen his file, Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are on their last legs and even Justin Herbert is dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing hand and an injury-wrecked offensive line. … I don’t expect a good schedule to save Tua Tagovailoa, either. Keep in mind Miami plays at the slowest pace in the league, and the Dolphins have a negative pass rate over expected. … Marcus Mariota has been sharp for three weeks (QB13, QB9, QB3) and Jayden Daniels could be returning soon. Add in Terry McLaurin and there’s finally optimism in Washington.
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The Medium Slates
Rams: Lions, @Seahawks, @Falcons
Cardinals: @Texans, Falcons, @Bengals
Colts: @Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars
Browns: @Bears, Bills, Steelers
Steelers: Dolphins, @Lions, @Browns
Buccaneers: Falcons, @Panthers, @Dolphins
Eagles: Raiders, @Commanders, @Bills
Saints: Panthers, Jets, @Titans
Packers: @Broncos, @Bears, Ravens
Lions: @Rams, Steelers, @Vikings
Ravens: @Bengals, Patriots, @Packers
Cowboys: Vikings, Chargers, @Commanders
Titans: @49ers, Chiefs, Saints
Broncos: Packers, Jaguars, @Chiefs
Panthers: @Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks
Seahawks: Colts, Rams, @Panthers
Bengals: Ravens, @Dolphins, Cardinals
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The Cardinals fell out of the top group because of the daunting Houston matchup, though the pass volume of this offense gives it a chance against anyone. … Baker Mayfield was an early MVP contender before a midseason slump, largely tied to injuries on his offense. Tampa Bay’s skill talent is healing at the right time. … The Saints pass rate over expected is close to neutral, but Kellen Moore has New Orleans playing at the quickest pace in the league. This is not a punching-bag team, and the target distribution has been narrow all season. Keep an open mind here.
Running The Gauntlet
Bears: Browns, Packers, @49ers
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Jaguars: Jets, @Broncos, @Colts
Bills: @Patriots, @Browns, Eagles
Jets: @Jaguars, @Saints, Patriots
Chiefs: Chargers, @Titans, Broncos
Texans: Cardinals, Raiders, @Chargers
Patriots: Bills, @Ravens, @Jets
If Drake Maye locks down that MVP, he will have earned it. Weather could also be a factor in all three of the Patriots’ matchups during the fantasy playoffs. … You should probably ignore the Kansas City ranking and keep rolling with Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice, as the Chiefs rank third in pass rate over expectation. If the Chiefs can bail out this season, it will come on the arm of Mahomes. … Josh Allen’s career splits show a rushing bump in December, and given the receivers he’s tied to, that trend will likely continue. They don’t call him “The Winter Soldier” for nothing.
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Tight End Strength of Schedule
The Favorable Slates
Dolphins: @Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers
Ravens: @Bengals, Patriots, @Packers
Cardinals: @Texans, Falcons, @Bengals
Colts: @Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars
49ers: Titans, @Colts, Bears
Jaguars: Jets, @Broncos, @Colts
The Bengals have been helpless against tight ends all year, and the Jaguars and Colts have struggled in this area of late, so those three teams are driving the results here. Go see if Darren Waller is available on your waiver wire, and don’t be afraid of Brenton Strange down the stretch (also take note that it’s easier to beat the Broncos down the seam than it is on the outside).
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The Medium Slates
Cowboys: Vikings, Chargers, @Commanders
Seahawks: Colts, Rams, @Panthers
Steelers: Dolphins, @Lions, @Browns
Broncos: Packers, Jaguars, @Chiefs
Chiefs: Chargers, @Titans, Broncos
Packers: @Broncos, @Bears, Ravens
Jets: @Jaguars, @Saints, Patriots
Lions: @Rams, Steelers, @Vikings
Bengals: Ravens, @Dolphins, Cardinals
Titans: @49ers, Chiefs, Saints
Giants: Commanders, Vikings, @Raiders
Bears: Browns, Packers, @49ers
Buccaneers: Falcons, @Panthers, @Dolphins
Chargers: @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans
Falcons: @Buccaneers, @Cardinals, Rams
Vikings: @Cowboys, @Giants, Lions
Texans: Cardinals, Raiders, @Chargers
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It’s a large middle group, and to be honest with most of the players here, just trust your offensive notes and scouting. The goal with defensive matchups is to identify and react to outliers, not to get hyper-focused on the layering in the middle.
Running The Gauntlet
Panthers: @Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks
Commanders: @Giants, Eagles, Cowboys
Rams: Lions, @Seahawks, @Falcons
Bills: @Patriots, @Browns, Eagles
Saints: Panthers, Jets, @Titans
Browns: @Bears, Bills, Steelers
Raiders: @Eagles, @Texans, Giants
Eagles: Raiders, @Commanders, @Bills
Patriots: Bills, @Ravens, @Jets
The Bills and Eagles have been TE-erasing defenses, so we’ll try to avoid them when we can. … Dallas Goedert has been TE19 or worse in the four games since Philadelphia’s bye week. It’s a far cry from the player he was in the first half of the year.
