The most important college football games of the season are still to come, but there is a fair case to be made that Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl, which pits San Diego State against North Texas, is the most interesting contest of the entire campaign.
There may be no bigger stylistic contrast in college football than between the Mean Green and the Aztecs. It’s a classic battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.
What’s more is that both of these teams were among the most impressive in the Group of 5 this season, and narrowly missed out on being in the mix for the playoff bids that eventually went to Tulane and James Madison.
North Texas saw its dream come crashing down in the AAC Championship against the Green Wave, while San Diego State had its season derailed by an overtime loss to New Mexico in the final week of the campaign.
The odds make this game even more compelling, as the bookies are having a tough time separating these two teams. North Texas (11-2) is a 3.5-point favorite over San Diego State (9-3).
The tale of the tape for the New Mexico Bowl is an absolute beauty.
San Diego State vs. North Texas odds, prediction
Only four teams in college football allowed fewer points per game than San Diego State, which also ranked fifth overall in yards per play and first in FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Aztecs held seven different opponents (including Boise State and California) to single digits in 2025.
San Diego State’s offensive numbers are vanilla at best, but the Aztecs rarely needed to light up the scoreboard to get results. When your defense is allowing 12.6 points per game, you can afford to plod your way down the field.
And now for something completely different.
No team scored more points than North Texas this season. In fact, only one team (Texas Tech) came within 30 points of the Mean Green by season’s end.
North Texas averaged six touchdowns per game, scored 45-plus points in nine of its 13 contests and hit the 30-point mark in every game except for the AAC Championship against Tulane.
On paper, this sets up for a classic. Styles make fights, as they say.
But this is 2025, so there will be some homework to do before this tilt.
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Earlier this month, it was announced that North Texas head coach Eric Morris was hired to replace Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. The rest of the Mean Green’s staff would be in place for the bowl game, so you’d think Morris’ departure wouldn’t be a huge deal, save for one thing: There’s a lot of noise that his quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, would be hitting the portal after the bowl game.
Mestemaker, a freshman who walked onto the team in 2024, led the nation with 4,129 passing yards and finished third with 31 touchdown passes. The AAC Offensive Player of the Year has been adamant that he won’t decide on transferring until after the bowl game.
We’ll take Mestemaker at his word, but it did seem peculiar that he and his teammates put forth their worst effort in their most recent game, which was when rumors about the quarterback’s intentions really started to percolate. It was already announced that his head coach was headed to Oklahoma State, and many pundits were beginning to connect the dots.
Against other defenses, North Texas could win despite a distracted performance from Mestemaker and the rest of the offense, but the Mean Green will not be able to get away with it against San Diego State.
I expect this game to be played on the Aztecs’ terms, and that should spell doom for North Texas and any punter looking to back the Mean Green on Saturday.
The Play: San Diego State moneyline (+145, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
