Let’s forget conference logos and preseason narratives in this year’s Gator Bowl.
No. 19 Virginia (10-3) built its season on disciplined, low-variance football and has lived in tight margins. It posted four straight one-score games early in the year — three in overtime — and even in its worst moment, the ACC Championship loss to Duke, still forced a neutral-field title game into extra time.
Missouri (8-4) took a nosedive after a 5-0 start.
The Tigers are excessively dependent on a physical, run-heavy game centered around Ahmad Hardy in the backfield. This offense will be grievously handicapped, however, heading into Saturday, losing quarterback Beau Pribula, wideouts Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning to the transfer portal. That’s in addition to tight end Brett Norfleet being sidelined and coordinator Kirby Moore skipping town for a gig at Washington State.
Hardy is elite, having posted 1,560 yards, which ranks second nationally. But with no other skill players to rely on, the Tigers have been stripped down to a one-trick pony and Virginia’s strengths can exploit Missouri’s current vulnerabilities.
The Cavaliers were a top-20 team in yards allowed per carry and rarely allowed explosive runs. With Missouri’s passing game also limited, Virginia is likely to load the box and force backup quarterback Matt Zollers to beat them with table scraps downfield.
Their offense is functional when it matters. Chandler Morris adds some mobility under center and delivered some of the most efficient plays Virginia has had in years.
J’Mari Taylor isn’t just a 1,000-yard rusher; his 43 receptions give Virginia a pressure-release valve against a Missouri defense that has been consistently strong, limiting explosive plays.
Missouri beat only one bowl-bound team all season. Virginia exceeded every reasonable expectation, tied a program record with 10 wins, and is playing for its first 11-win season in 136 years of existence.
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This could have plenty of fourth-quarter tension and taking more than four points with a team that has thrived in close games all season plays as the sharp side according to reports.
Virginia is by no means a disengaged underdog drifting into bowl season — it’s a team that has already shown it can win ugly and win late.
THE PLAY: UVA +4.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
