We’re in the middle of October, which means it’s time to get the Shuffle Up series going. What’s happened to this point is merely an audition. The ranks and tiers you find below are what I’d use if I were entering a fresh fantasy football draft starting now (and yes, there’s still time to draft another Yahoo Fantasy football league).
The prices are unscientific and meant to be a tool to show where the talent clusters. Players at the same price are considered even. Remember the golden rule: no player gains (or loses) extra value simply because you roster him
Players who are currently hurt get their own provisional rank at the bottom. They are not for debate. Everyone has their own ideas about injuries and comebacks.
The wideout shuffle was already on the budget to begin with, but it becomes more timely with the Davante Adams and Amari Cooper trades this week. Fantasy managers have to be excited about these deals, as Adams and Cooper were mired in can’t-win offenses a week ago. The Raiders don’t have a legitimate quarterback, obviously. The Browns are pot stuck with the awful Deshaun Watson contract.
Adams shouldn’t have a tricky onboarding in New York, given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. I figure Garrett Wilson is a high-end WR2 forward, and Adams is more of a middle-ground WR2, but startable every healthy week. Cooper will have to get up to speed with the Buffalo offense, but considering how mediocre the wideout play has been there, the Bills have every incentive to fast-track their newest player. We also need to recognize Cooper was traded in the middle of the 2018 season and quickly spiked his production in Dallas. The shuffle-up considers Cooper on the WR2/WR3 line for now.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
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$44 Ja’Marr Chase
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$43 Justin Jefferson
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$41 CeeDee Lamb
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$40 Amon-Ra St. Brown
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$38 Malik Nabers
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$37 A.J. Brown
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$36 Tyreek Hill
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$34 Deebo Samuel Sr.
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$34 Chris Godwin
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$33 Mike Evans
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$32 Jayden Reed
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$31 Drake London
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$31 DK Metcalf
Life is good for Chase managers, but you still feel like some meat is left on the bone. Chase, after all, is the WR1 in all scoring formats, but he’s merely tied for 20th in wideout targets (and the Bengals haven’t had their bye yet). Joe Burrow has a 138.5 rating when targeting Chase, for crying out loud. Press your easy button, Cincinnati.
It was around this time last year (right after the bye) when the Cowboys threw their game plan in the trash and basically started throwing to Lamb at an absurd pace. He had nine or more targets in each of his last 11 starts, totaling a silly 88-1186-9 line over that span. Well, we’re back here again — a Dallas bye week coming off yet another embarrassing home loss. Lamb had a slow push after the holdout summer, but I expect him to feast the rest of the way.
Do the Packers have too many good players? Jayden Reed has made it to 10 targets just once, and he’s managed a modest 34 looks through six starts this year. Thats said, the Matt LaFleur scheme always uses Reed plenty in scoring areas, and he’s also getting one or two rushes a game. He’s basically the Green Bay version of Deebo Samuel. Feature or bug? I’d like to think of that as a feature.
Godwin deserves the slight preference over Evans, as a move back to the slot has boosted his production. So often those routes are easier to win on, and the throws are quicker and more defined. Godwin has always offered upside, but he’s also building a sturdy floor, with five catches or more in every game. The schedule is going to get tougher, but Baker Mayfield has played well and the Tampa Bay passing game has a narrow concentration.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
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$29 Brandon Aiyuk
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$29 DeVonta Smith
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$28 Garrett Wilson
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$27 Terry McLaurin
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$26 Marvin Harrison Jr.
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$26 Stefon Diggs
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$25 Diontae Johnson
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$25 Zay Flowers
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$24 DJ Moore
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$23 Tee Higgins
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$22 Davante Adams
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$22 Brian Thomas Jr.
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$22 George Pickens
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$20 Jameson Williams
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$20 Jaylen Waddle
Smith is always going to play Robin to Brown’s Batman, but Jalen Hurts isn’t getting as much goal-line work this year, and the Philadelphia passing game only has these two primary options; TE Dallas Goedert isn’t consistent, and the rest of the wide-receiver room is shockingly thin. Smith might never be a true WR1, but he’s as easy a weekly WR2 punch as you’ll find.
The Steelers have found a way to win four games with Justin Fields, though he’s only throwing for 184 yards per game and he’s making some bad mistakes every week; a horrible Week 6 pick was overturned by a questionable personal-foul call. Pickens is a mercurial type, and Arthur Smith’s game-calling is destined to drive us crazy, but Pickens wins so consistently on deep routes, and he’s one of those players who can make your week with just one splash play, regardless of who is at QB. I can’t let go of his theoretical upside.
The Johnson rank is admittedly a hedge; he could be in the above tier if Andy Dalton were locked in to start the full season, but things could quickly collapse if (and when) Bryce Young returns; at some point the non-contending Panthers probably have to try Young again. Johnson was outside the top 70 — just absurd — for the two Young starts this year, using half-point PPR scoring. Since then, he’s graded pretty well: WR6, WR9, WR60, WR12.
Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
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$19 Amari Cooper
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$17 Tank Dell
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$17 Darnell Mooney
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$14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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$12 Xavier Worthy
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$12 Josh Downs
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$11 Christian Watson
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$11 Christian Kirk
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$11 Jordan Addison
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$11 Calvin Ridley
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$11 Michael Pittman Jr.
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$11 Courtland Sutton
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$11 JuJu Smith-Schuster
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$10 Wan’Dale Robinson
Robinson is making just 4.8 yards per target despite a solid 63.8% catch rate, which tells you how horizontal the New York passing game is. The key to Robinson rostership is having a league with a PPR or half-PPR component; he has five catches or more in five starts, but he’s going to be around 40-60 yards most weeks — a useful depth piece, albeit a player with a capped upside.
Ridley posted a historic bagel last week, catchless on eight opportunities. It’s a shared failure, as he had a problem with drops, but Will Levis passes are so often off target. The best thing I can say about Ridley at the moment — I’d rather roster him than DeAndre Hopkins.
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s roster tag didn’t spike a week ago because the Chiefs were on bye, perhaps a mistake by the fantasy public. He’s capable of being Rashee Rice-light, and the Kansas City game plan worked overtime in Week 5, finding easy routes for JuJu to win with. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the team’s most-targeted player until further notice.
Mooney has a high target and snap share on an offense that’s awfully concentrated, and Kirk Cousins has fully shaken off the rust. Mooney’s stuck with a capped upside given his teammates, but his floor is higher than the market might recognize.
Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside
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$9 Ladd McConkey
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$9 Jakobi Meyers
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$8 Khalil Shakir
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$8 Rome Odunze
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$8 DeAndre Hopkins
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$8 Romeo Doubs
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$8 Jerry Jeudy
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$8 Tyler Lockett
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$7 Keenan Allen
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$7 Xavier Legette
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$7 Jalen Tolbert
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$7 DeMario Douglas
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$7 Alec Pierce
Pierce leads all receivers in yards per target, but Michael Pittman Jr. is back and so is Anthony Richardson. The Colts are doing the right thing with Richardson — you have to develop the future of your franchise — but everyone in this receiver room is much easier to start with Joe Flacco under center, who very quietly has double-digit touchdown passes in his last eight games (20 over that stretch).
Jeudy is now the presumed No. 1 wideout in Cleveland, but so long as it’s the Deshaun Watson show, do we really care? Ping me if and when they ever try a new quarterback. It might take an injury or some public blowout before the Browns are fully motivated to make a switch.
Shakir was always a solid-floor, low-upside kind of player, and now Cooper is in town to be the featured target. He was a WR3 at peak, but it’s closer to WR5 value now.
Douglas has become a quiet volume source in New England and Drake Maye’s debut had more good moments than bad. Perhaps he can be a poor man’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson in New England.
Tier 5: Bargain Bin
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$6 Michael Wilson
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$6 Allen Lazard
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$5 Keon Coleman
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$5 Quentin Johnston
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$4 Bub Means
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$4 Jauan Jennings
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$4 Tre Tucker
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$4 Rashod Bateman
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$4 Ja’Lynn Polk
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$3 Gabe Davis
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$3 Jordan Whittington
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$3 Demarcus Robinson
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$3 Darius Slayton
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$3 Tutu Atwell
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$2 Joshua Palmer
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$2 Greg Dortch
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$2 Adonai Mitchell
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$2 Ray-Ray McCloud III
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$2 Noah Brown
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$2 Jalen Nailor
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$1 Mike Williams
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$1 Andrei Iosivas
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$1 Luke McCaffrey
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$1 Jalen McMillan
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$1 Curtis Samuel
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$1 Ricky Pearsall
I still expect Lazard to maintain some fantasy value even with the new crowding in that Jets receiving room. He’s scored in four different weeks, and he has about as much Rodgers time as Adams does. Mike Williams looks like the odd man out.
Means was useful in the first Spencer Rattler start, and now the two primary New Orleans receivers are hurt. Means won’t sneak up on any defense again, but he’s set to lead this team in target share for a week or two. As always, we want to chase likely volume.
Usually contingent-value picks are centered around running backs, but Jennings takes on that theme, too, a player I’d confidently start if anything happened to Samuel or Aiyuk.
If Whittington had enough target to qualify, he would be at the top of the success-rate list among wide receivers, per Pro Football Reference. He’s a preferred streamer until the Rams get their primary options back.
Provisional Injury Rankings — Not for debate
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$26 Cooper Kupp
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$25 Nico Collins
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$24 Puka Nacua
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$19 Chris Olave
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$14 Rashid Shaheed
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$5 Dontayvion Wicks
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$3 Brandin Cooks
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$2 Elijah Moore
