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ESPN
Oct 16, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
We are two games into both 2024 League Championship Series, and it’s time for our snap judgements based on what we’ve seen so far.
The NLCS is tied after dominant offensive performances carried the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets to wins at Dodger Stadium.
In the ALCS, the New York Yankees overpowered the Cleveland Guardians both nights in the Bronx to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.
What has stood out most so far? Who are the early MVPs of each series? And what’s next for the World Series hopefuls? Our MLB experts weigh in.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Who is the two-games-in MVP of this NLCS?
Alden Gonzalez: It’s pretty remarkable to consider the rarity of Jack Flaherty‘s accomplishment for the Dodgers in Game 1. With seven scoreless innings in L.A.’s 9-0 win, he became the first Dodgers starter since 2021 to complete at least six innings in the postseason, breaking a streak of 20 games. The last time someone threw seven scoreless in the playoffs? Clayton Kershaw, in the first round in 2020. The Dodgers have had a lot of starting pitching issues in October — perhaps never more so than this year, with so many key arms injured. Flaherty, who lines up to start again in Game 5, needs to keep pitching deep into games. So do Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. This team can’t win a championship without it.
Bradford Doolittle: It’s got to be a tie, because we’ve had two completely different games that now leave us dead even. So it’s Jack Flaherty for his seven goose eggs in Game 1, tied with Mark Vientos for his nine-pitch grand slam in Game 2.
David Schoenfield: One thing that’s clear — as seems to be the case every October with the Dodgers — is that Dave Roberts’ decisions will factor heavily into the results of this series. In the end, it’s the players who win and lose the games, and Roberts tends to receive too much of the blame when the Dodgers lose, but in this postseason, he has managed a masterful bullpen game to beat the San Diego Padres in what might have been peak Roberts. But in Game 2 of the ALCS, he issued the ill-advised intentional walk to Francisco Lindor, setting up Mark Vientos’ grand slam. In general, walking the bases loaded is a bad idea, since there is no margin for error with the next batter. So that decision backfired in a big way. It all means Roberts has the potential to be the MVP of the series … or the goat (lower-case version).
Which lineup has impressed you most so far?
Gonzalez: Neither? The Dodgers have combined for a .658 OPS through the first two games of this series. The Mets? .639. The Dodgers are 6-for-20 with runners in scoring position, while the Mets are 4-for-15. The Dodgers have left 29 runners on base, but the Mets aren’t far behind at 24. Simply put, it’s early in this series, hitting is harder this time of year and neither team has separated itself. I think the Dodgers’ lineup is deeper and possesses more upside, but it needs some key guys to get going — primarily Will Smith, who’s 2-for-23 in the playoffs, and Shohei Ohtani, who’s 0-for-19 with the bases empty.
Doolittle: In what is a surprise to me, I’d say the Mets. The Dodgers have some guys either struggling (Will Smith, kinda-sorta Shohei Ohtani), at less than full capacity (Freddie Freeman, Gavin Lux) or on the roster more for versatility reasons than for offensive production. The Mets have a roster of hitters who go more than nine deep and can be adapted to a number of in-game pitching changes.
Schoenfield: As long as Ohtani continues to scuffle a bit, I’ll go with the Mets. They’re a little deeper one to nine and also have some options off the bench, while the Dodgers are stuck with the likes of a defensive replacement in Kevin Kiermaier and a weak-hitting utility player in Chris Taylor. The Mets do need to get something out of Jose Iglesias, who was the big surprise in the regular season (hitting .337/.381/.448) but hasn’t done much in the playoffs (.222/.263/.222).
What has surprised you most about the Dodgers so far in this series?
Gonzalez: That their bullpen strategy backfired so drastically in Game 2. It was because Alex Vesia isn’t available in this round, Daniel Hudson was unavailable for Game 2, and (mostly) because Landon Knack allowed five runs in the second inning. When the Dodgers shut out the Padres with eight relievers in Game 4 of the division series, Knack didn’t pitch until the ninth, when the game was already out of hand. Before Monday, that was the only inning he had pitched in about two weeks. The Dodgers would prefer not to use a bulk reliever for games when one of their traditional starters doesn’t take the ball. But it appears they don’t have a choice at this point. They don’t have enough arms.
Doolittle: The way Ohtani finished the season, I fully expected one of those 1.300 OPS postseasons from him that defy the challenges of facing playoff pitching. So far, that has not been the case, and at times, he has looked a little lost against breaking pitches. Othani has still had his moments, and it was a good sign that rather than getting antsy in Game 2 he still took a couple of walks. I don’t expect his uneven production to continue much longer.
Schoenfield: How much they’re suddenly relying on Enrique Hernandez as a key contributor — and might need to continue to do so. In the final two games of the NLDS and Game 1 of the NLCS, he went 5-for-11 with four runs scored, and the Dodgers won all three games.
And what about the Mets?
Gonzalez: The Mets were at times a mess on the bases and on defense early this season, then they got rolling and seemed to tighten up. But they’ve made some pretty glaring mistakes in both departments through the first couple of games in this series. They were finally starting to rally in the fifth inning of Game 1, getting back-to-back hits, but then Jesse Winker got deked by Enrique Hernandez, who threw behind him from center field and got him caught in a rundown. In the sixth inning of Game 2, they almost blew a big lead, with Jose Iglesias botching a tailor-made double-play ball and Pete Alonso failing to corral another grounder that went for a two-run single. They need to clean it up.
Doolittle: Vientos was going well during the regular season, but he has been the most impactful hitter of the playoffs overall. That trajectory has continued with his Game 2 slam. Vientos, just to remind everyone, started the season in Syracuse, partly because of a roster crunch, but also because he had real issues to work through in terms of approach. You expect shortcomings like that to be exposed in October, but Vientos has been the one exposing pitchers instead. I’m not shocked he has been good, but I’m very surprised at just how good.
Schoenfield: Not a surprise, but did Edwin Diaz finally find his fastball in the ninth inning of Game 2? Diaz has been an adventure all postseason, struggling to throw strikes, but after the first two Dodgers reached, he threw 13 consecutive fastballs and struck out Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman (getting Freeman on a slider). That version of Diaz looked unbeatable.
What is one thing each team needs to do from here to take control of this series?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers need their starting pitchers to be effective. It’ll probably be Buehler, Yamamoto and Flaherty, in that order, pitching the next three games at Citi Field. If the series shifts back to L.A., the Dodgers will have to stage a bullpen game at some point. And their preference would be to utilize only their high-leverage arms rather than someone like Knack or Brent Honeywell to take down bulk innings. That only has a chance of happening if they get production from their starting rotation. The Mets need to continue to neutralize Ohtani and Betts at the top of the order. The two of them have combined to go 3-for-15 with five walks, which isn’t terrible but also isn’t great. Given how hobbled Freeman is behind them, taming those two will be key to the Mets’ chances.
Doolittle: Baseball isn’t really a “one thing” kind of sport, but among the options, the Dodgers need the bottom of their order to get on base. It’s not that I exactly buy into the Ohtani empty-base split, but it’s certainly true that the more he and Betts hit with runners on, the higher the scores are going to be for L.A. For the Mets, it’s a matter of taking advantage of the lower tier of the L.A. playoff pitching staff. They did that in Game 2, and based on what we’ve seen this season, they have an immediate opportunity with Buehler. But the Dodgers have a lot of pitchers who are dealing, so the Mets have to make hay while they can.
Schoenfield: I’m sticking with Ohtani has to hit for the Dodgers, since it’s still likely their questionable starting pitching/bullpen games will surrender some runs. For the Mets, the starters have to pitch deep into games, given even the top Mets relievers don’t inspire a lot of confidence.
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Who is the two-games-in MVP of this ALCS?
Jorge Castillo: The Yankees have struggled hitting with runners in scoring position (2-for-17), but they’ve generated plenty of traffic on the basepaths, and Gleyber Torres has been a big factor there. The second baseman has reached base in five of his nine plate appearances from the leadoff spot. He has scored three of the Yankees’ 11 runs. He has been instrumental in applying early pressure, delivering a single in the first inning in Game 1 and a double in the first inning in Game 2. He was on base for Aaron Judge‘s home run in Game 2 and has done his job setting the table for Juan Soto and Judge exceptionally well. It has fueled the Yankees’ offense.
Jeff Passan: Carlos Rodón‘s dominant Game 1 outing helped the Yankees secure a lead in the series and allowed manager Aaron Boone to avoid overtaxing his best relievers ahead of Game 2. If the Yankees can win one of the next two games, Rodón will be in line to finish the series in Game 5 — and if he can manage another similar start, he’ll almost certainly get the actual award. Honorable mention goes to Juan Soto, who has the highest on-base percentage (.625) and slugging percentage (1.000) of any hitter in either LCS.
David Schoenfield: Let’s give a shout-out to the Yankees’ bullpen, which has been stellar throughout the postseason so far with three runs allowed (just two earned) in 23⅓ innings and tossed a strong 4⅔ innings to hold the lead in Game 2. Clay Holmes has found his early-season groove, Tim Hill has gotten some key lefties out, Tommy Kahnle got four outs on Tuesday and Luke Weaver has locked it down in the ninth (although he did serve up a home run to Jose Ramirez in Game 2). We always talk about a bullpen getting hot at the right time, and New York’s is hot right now.
Has Aaron Judge finally broken out?
Castillo: Who knows? Maybe the home run in Game 2 is the start of one of his trademark barrages. Maybe it’ll ease the pressure some. But it’s Aaron Judge. It was always just a matter of time before he figured things out and started clobbering baseballs again. The question was whether the Yankees could afford to wait until he did. The way this series is going, it looks like they can.
Passan: Yes. When Judge hits home runs, they tend to come in bunches, and this wasn’t some short-porch cheapie. Hunter Gaddis‘ fastball works exceptionally at the top of the zone — he had allowed only one home run off the 230 such pitches he threw in the upper-third or higher this season — and Judge turned it around in a hurry. The ball left his bat at 111.3 mph, landed 414 feet away in center field and portends the sort of run that has a chance to flip the narrative on the Yankees’ captain in the postseason.
Schoenfield: Well, it was certainly the most overanalyzed 17 at-bats in recent memory before Judge finally homered in his 18th. It does feel like his plate appearances have been improving, including a sac fly in Game 1 and another one in Game 2 prior to the home run. Now toss in the home run, and let’s just say the Guardians better be very wary of the big guy moving forward.
What do the Guardians most need to do to get back into this series?
Castillo: They need to score more runs. Five runs in two games isn’t going to cut it against a team as talented as the Yankees. And it starts with Jose Ramirez. The star third baseman was 0-for-7 with a walk before swatting a home run in the ninth inning of Game 2. He and the rest of the offense will need to do more of that. The bullpen, as good as it is, needs more support.
Passan: To start playing like themselves again. The Guardians won 92 games and the American League Central because they play a good brand of baseball. They had the second-most defensive runs saved this season — and you don’t do that by dropping popups and bobbling balls in the outfield. They had the best bullpen ERA by more than half a run — and you don’t do that by issuing five wild pitches in a playoff game. The Cleveland team of the first two games is not the Cleveland team of the 162 during the regular season or the five in the division series. The Yankees are good enough already. The Guardians’ gift-giving season needs to end now.
Schoenfield: Not make mistakes. They don’t have the firepower to overcome their shoddy play in the first two games. In Game 1, it was seven walks and five wild pitches (four of them by Joey Cantillo). In Game 2, there were a few defensive miscues, including two errors that led to two unearned runs. It’s no fun having a weapon like Emmanuel Clase in the bullpen and not being able to get the ball to him with a lead. But that has to start with cleaner baseball (oh, and getting some hits with runners in scoring position, after going 1-for-11 the first two games).
