ATLANTA — When projecting how the College Football Playoff selection committee will rule on its most controversial decisions, the discourse too often includes the phrase, “Well, the committee can’t do that.”
Oh, but it can. It has. And it could.
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The question as it relates to Alabama is whether it should.
Because here at the SEC championship game, where Georgia completely throttled Alabama in a 28-7 tour de force on Saturday, the No. 9-ranked Crimson Tide handed the selection committee a path to free itself from the stickiest controversy of the CFP era.
For several weeks, the hottest topic around the playoff has largely centered on Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Miami despite identical 10-2 records, a similar strength of schedule and the latter’s head-to-head victory in Week 1 of the season.
But why not include both?
Heading into championship weekend, it seemed impossible. There wasn’t enough room in the 12-team field for both No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 12 Miami. There is, however, one way it could work: Dropping Alabama out of the field entirely.
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It’s a lever the committee almost certainly doesn’t want to pull. But after watching the Crimson Tide get obliterated by Georgia, it is the only way the committee can avoid a self-inflicted controversy that would haunt the CFP for decades.
Would leaving out Alabama — for the second year in a row — be controversial? Undoubtedly, and for myriad reasons.
Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes may have gone up in smoke in the SEC title game. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
(Kevin C. Cox via Getty Images)
You’re not supposed to penalize a team for losing its conference championship game. You’re not supposed to knock a team out of the playoff with wins over two top-15 teams, including a 24-21 win over Georgia back on Sept. 27 in Athens. You’re not supposed to do that to the S-E-doggone-C.
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“If this game applies to and takes away from our résumé, I don’t think that’s right. I really don’t,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. “The precedent has been set, and I don’t know how you can go into a conference [championship] game when you’re the No. 1 seed and did all these things through the year and play in this game against one of the top teams in the country, how that can hurt you and keep you out of the playoff?”
But the case for it is straightforward and compelling.
Let’s start here: Alabama would be the first three-loss team to make the CFP. That isn’t necessarily disqualifying on its own. But one of those three losses, 31-17 at Florida State in Week 1, is undeniably putrid. Florida State’s only other wins this season came against East Texas A&M, Kent State, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
Also, Alabama’s finish to the season has been uninspiring to say the least. In its final four games, it lost at home to Oklahoma, 23-21, got a freebie against Eastern Illinois, barely eked out a 27-20 win over Auburn and then no-showed against Georgia.
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And finally, the committee will have to ask itself a question as it sorts out who gets the final spots. When choosing between teams without an overwhelming résumé, which one is best positioned to compete deep into the playoffs?
It’s not Alabama.
Yes, the Tide had some injuries Saturday, including running back Jam Miller, who wasn’t able to play due to a leg injury. But the nature of this Georgia beatdown was so overwhelming, it’s hard to say it would have mattered. Alabama gained just 209 yards of offense (with -3 rushing yards) and only scored once on a penalty-aided drive.
For a team that was already on thinner ice than many understood — ranked No. 9 by the committee, Alabama was just one spot above the cut line to get in as an at-large team — it’s hard to say that nothing from a championship game should matter in evaluating the Tide.
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That’s where perception doesn’t always meet reality with the CFP.
Last year, SMU lost the ACC championship game but got in anyway despite an uninspiring overall résumé at 11-2. But was that circumstance or precedent? Remember, SMU was down 31-14 going into the fourth quarter of that game but rallied to tie things up late before Clemson won on a walk-off 56-yard field goal.
That comeback gave the committee enough cover to avoid taking a stand against SMU. But it would be foolish to interpret that as a hardline rule that conference title game losers can’t fall out of the playoff field if they were in it the week before.
Every year is different. Every committee is different. And every circumstance that surrounds these decisions is different.
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Last year, taking SMU out would have meant putting in a 9-3 team — which just so happened to be Alabama. And the wailing from the SEC office was heard all spring and summer long.
This year, taking Alabama out would make room for a pair of 10-2 teams. And if that happens, the complaints from SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne will be legendary.
The SEC might even be ready to burn it all down. The last SEC championship game could be Saturday night.
And the committee should do it anyway.
Because what would be the greater injustice? Leaving out an Alabama team with a horrible loss that finished the season poorly and had its best win of the season neutralized with a decisive loss to the same team, or leaving out one of Miami and Notre Dame?
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No matter what, someone is going to feel like they got screwed over.
“I’m not nervous at all. It’s not up to me,” Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said. “I think that our résumé speaks for itself. We went through a gauntlet of a schedule. The SEC is the best conference in the country, and that’s a really good team. It’s pretty much as simple as that.”
For all the flack the committee takes, this stuff isn’t easy — especially at the end. In a 12-team playoff where five conference champions get automatic bids, the margins are small between all these teams. Everybody’s got flaws.
Notre Dame, a team many experts believe is good enough to win the whole thing, started 0-2 before winning 10 straight but had a lot of bad teams on its schedule this year. Its only significant win, over Southern Cal, leaves the Irish without a lot of résumé heft.
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Miami beat Notre Dame to open the season and was cruising toward the playoff before a midseason lull that resulted in close losses to Louisville and SMU. Those weren’t good losses, to be sure, but they weren’t calamitous like the Alabama loss to Florida State.
The problem is, the committee’s first set of rankings on Nov. 4 had Miami at No. 18, eight spots behind Notre Dame. As Miami played better football toward the end of the season and other teams lost, they’ve moved closer to each other — close enough that the head-to-head may well come into play now with Notre Dame at No. 10, just two spots ahead of Miami.
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The team in between them? That was BYU, which got blown out of the Big 12 championship game.
So this is a real pickle for the committee.
– Ignore one of the key head-to-head results of the season?
– Snub a Notre Dame team that passes the eye test with flying colors?
– Or risk enraging the SEC to the point of possibly seceding from the Union?
Those are three less-than-ideal options, but after Alabama’s embarrassing performance Saturday, the correct one is right in front of the committee’s face.
And they need to take it.
