No team in college football had a stranger season than the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke entered the campaign as a dark horse to win the ACC, but that seemed like a lofty projection after it got crushed by Illinois and lost to Tulane right out of the gates. Things only got weirder from there as the Blue Devils went 6-2 in conference play and got to the championship game on a litany of tiebreakers despite boasting an overall record of 7-5.
Duke upset Virginia to lift the trophy, but was not left out of the College Football Playoff on account of its mediocre performance during the regular season.
All of this led to Duke accepting an invitation to the Sun Bowl, where the Blue Devils will meet the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Duke vs. Arizona State odds, prediction
Adding to the funkiness of Duke’s season was the fact that it was a one-trick pony. The Blue Devils have a game-breaker at quarterback in Darian Mensah, and they leaned on the former Tulane player in a big way.
If Mensah had a big performance, the Blue Devils would have a chance to win. If he was even slightly off, the defense couldn’t hold the fort.
Speaking of that defense, hardly any Power 4 team had more issues without the ball than the Blue Devils, who allowed 6.1 yards per play (115th in FBS), 29.7 points per game (91st), and 282 passing yards per game (121st).
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Arizona State’s offensive numbers were ho-hum, and the Sun Devils will be without quarterback Sam Leavitt, but I still expect them to make a dent against one of the leakiest defenses in the sport.
The Sun Devils defense was their calling card in 2025, but they will need to make do without three of their best players, most notably cornerback Keith Abney II, the team’s best defender against the pass.
That should allow Mensah to do his thing, which could be enough on its own to get us past this total.
The Play: Over 49.5 (-110, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
