Nearly every meaningful scale ranges from the lowest level of magnitude to the greatest. All the famed ones work this way.
From the Richter Scale to Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer, we strive to make sense of a chaotic world by assigning numbers and rankings.
Bear with me as I attempt to put the 2024 college football season into proper context.
In a chalky year like 2005, we saw USC and Texas open the season ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in the polls.
They would stay that way throughout the regular season before meeting in the Rose Bowl for the national title. In terms of pure chaos, 2005’s stability at the top made for a season that felt preordained.
Then there was 2007, the “Year of the Upset,” and the polar opposite of 2005.
Top-10 teams were constantly on upset alert, losing a staggering 29 times collectively. The second-ranked team in the nation lost seven times.
If 2005 barely registered on this chaos scale, the gridiron Geiger counter would have exploded in 2007.
So, where are we this season, on a 1-10 scale — one being closer to 2005 and 10 being closer to 2007? At this point, we’re approaching a nine.
Consider the chaos we’ve witnessed in eight short weeks: Army, Navy and Vanderbilt are all ranked together in the polls for the first time since 1919.
Indiana and Iowa State, both undefeated, control their destinies in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively.
Preseason top-10 Florida State is cruising toward a 10-loss season.
The playoff hopes for Alabama and Ole Miss are on life support before we’ve even hit November.
A Group of Five player, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, is currently the co-favorite to win the Heisman.
In staying with the chaos of the season, we’re leaning into the madness this week by reaching for a future that would have been unthinkable just a month ago.
Army QB Bryson Daily to win the Heisman Trophy (80/1, DraftKings)
Before the season, I made a case that the expansion of the College Football Playoff would open the door to a handful of candidates who would have otherwise been shut out from contention.
Heisman voters have displayed a “playoff bias,” with seven of the past 10 winners having appeared in the four-team CFP. But now that the field has tripled, a player like Daily has a chance.
Army will need to make the CFP for Daily to win it.
The Black Knights are 7-0 for the first time in 28 years and have a pair of marquee matchups ahead.
Their season will come down to a neutral-site meeting with Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium and the AAC Championship. Win them both and they’re into the playoff.
Statistically, Daily is on the right pace from a production perspective, with 26 touchdowns in seven games. He’s first in Pro Football Focus’ offensive grade among quarterbacks and fourth in QBR.
Pete Dawkins, Army’s last Heisman winner (1958), used an undefeated season to stiff-arm competition from Iowa, LSU, and Ohio State at the ballot box. The same formula is at play here.
The media attention surrounding a Serviceman winning the award will flip into hyperdrive if Daily upsets Notre Dame with a multi-touchdown performance.
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If he beats the Irish and punches Army’s CFP ticket in the AAC title game (against Navy, perhaps), he has the recipe to win this thing in what has already proven to be a very strange year.
Of the 10 Heisman favorites to begin the season, only Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (+200, FanDuel) and Miami’s Cam Ward (+250, Bet365) remain in the hunt.
Lean into the chaos and add a ticket on Daily.
BET: Army QB Bryson Daily to win the Heisman Trophy (80/1, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
