The SEC belonged to Georgia again. Then it was taken by Alabama. Soon, Texas stepped in, seizing the top ranking in the nation, before the Bulldogs reasserted their dominance with a smackdown of the Longhorns.
Now, only two teams remain undefeated in SEC play — both considered afterthoughts after Week 1.
LSU opened the season with a surprising loss to USC, a result that’s become increasingly perplexing in the wake of the Trojans’ 1-4 Big Ten record. Texas A&M opened the season with one touchdown in a loss to Notre Dame, a result that looked even worse after the Irish lost at home to Northern Illinois.
Neither team has lost since then, giving both a realistic path to claim a spot in the SEC Championship Game. After this week, the Aggies have only one more game against a ranked team, hosting Texas in the regular season finale. The Tigers may not be a notable underdog until December, with visiting Alabama the final remaining threat.
Texas A&M, under first-year coach Mike Elko, is the greater surprise, emerging from the ashes of the money it set ablaze for Jimbo Fisher. Brian Kelly has built another top 10 team and offense despite losing Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. to the first round of the NFL draft.
The Aggies — who have lost six of their past seven games against ranked teams — are the favorite on Saturday despite a passing game ranked outside the top 100 and a quarterback (Conner Weigman) with more interceptions than touchdowns, despite going against a top 25 run defense, despite building their defensive reputation against opponents without a top 40 offense.
The Aggies are the favorite because of Kyle Field, where 107,000-plus didn’t make a difference against Notre Dame.
Texas A&M can have the “12th Man.” LSU (+2.5) has the edge among the 22 on the field.
Syracuse (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Orange have excelled on the road, picking up wins at UNLV and N.C. State. Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, who ranks second in the nation with 360 passing yards per game, should light up the Panthers’ 95th-ranked pass defense. Pitt’s four wins against Power Four teams have come by an average of just over four points per game.
Boise State (-3.5) over UNLV
It never feels good to get in bed with such a public pick, but the Broncos deserve the love against a team it beat on the road, 44-20, for last season’s Mountain West title. Boise State’s weak secondary can’t be exploited by UNLV’s 114th-ranked passing attack. And though the Runnin’ Rebels rank third in the nation in turnover margin, the Broncos are among the top 10 at protecting the ball.
USC (-14) over Rutgers
We have a new contender for the stupidest Big Ten matchup imaginable. The Trojans are averaging over 38 points per game at home — more than two touchdowns per game better than outside the Coliseum — and the shorthanded Scarlet Knights are in no shape to stop the bleeding of their three-game losing streak.
Nebraska (+25.5) over OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes will begin preparing for next week’s trip to Happy Valley by halftime. Don’t trust Will Howard — the owner of only two games with 300 yards passing in parts of five seasons — to run up the score, leading the Buckeyes to 35 points per game in Big Ten play.
Notre Dame (-12.5) over Navy
Marcus Freeman’s top-20 run defense has slowed Navy’s ground game in two of the past three years, limiting the Midshipmen to single-digit points in those meetings.
Washington (+6.5) over INDIANA
The line has barely moved despite the undefeated Hoosiers losing quarterback Kurtis Rourke to a thumb injury. I am conditioned to believe that losing the team’s most important player is important, especially when said team is among the best passing offenses in the country and the nation’s top-ranked pass defense is coming to town.
Oklahoma (+20.5) over OLE MISS
The Sooners are a mess, firing first-year offensive coordinator Seth Littrell after seven games. Still, you’re better off buying the dip against the Rebels, who have lost two of their past three games and have averaged 24.3 points in SEC play.
Missouri (+14) over ALABAMA
Crimson Tide didn’t win a national championship in the first nine years after Bear Bryant retired. They went 14 years without a title before Nick Saban was hired. Are the glory days about to take another long hiatus?
Byu (+1.5) over UCF
There is no home-field advantage for the Knights, who have lost their first two Big 12 home games during a four-game overall losing streak. “Their record does not speak to how good of a football team they are,” BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff said. “They are probably the best 3-4 football team in the country.” Well, that changes everything.
Illinois (+21.5) over OREGON
The last time the Ducks held the No. 1 ranking in the country (2012) they lost it after just one week. Nothing is safe for the fourth top-ranked team of the season, which has covered just two of six games as a favorite this season. Bret Bielema is at his best in this role, covering 19 of his past 24 games as a road dog.
VANDERBILT (+18.5) over Texas
The Commodores are 4-0 at home this season and have won three games outright as double-digit underdogs, including an all-timer over then-No. 1 Alabama. They are ranked for the first time in 11 years, leading the SEC in time of possession, fewest turnovers and third-down conversion rate.
MIAMI (-21) over Florida State
The once-storied rivalry could host its most embarrassing chapter. The Seminoles — and their 127th-ranked offense — will find rock bottom against Cam Ward and the nation’s highest-scoring attack.
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WISCONSIN (+6.5) over Penn State
It is hard to accomplish as little as the Nittany Lions — and be nearly two decades removed from being a true national championship contender — and rise to No. 3 in the rankings. James Franklin’s near-annual fall face-plant nearly came at USC. Another landmine lurks under the lights in Wisconsin, which has won three straight games and hasn’t allowed double-digit points in a month.
Kansas (+10) over KANSAS STATE
The Jayhawks may not break their 15-year losing streak in the rivalry, but they will not go down quietly. Their five losses — four came despite fourth-quarter leads — have come by an average of 5.6 points. Quarterback Jalon Daniels appears back on track, producing seven total touchdowns and no interceptions in the past two weeks.
Best bets: Illinois, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
This season: 61-58-1 (7-16-1)
2013-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30
