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ESPN NFL Nation reporters
Oct 30, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
Eight weeks of the 2024 NFL season have passed. Some teams are riding high, while others are grasping for wins.
Much of what we thought we knew when it all began in September has been validated — but lots of surprises, and injuries, have changed the course of what we thought would happen. Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams have impressed as rookie quarterbacks. The NFC West is up in the air. The descent of the Panthers and the Giants is indisputable, and Derrick Henry is still unstoppable.
With that in mind, ESPN’s 32 NFL team reporters took part in a midseason reset. Here they lay out what they’ve learned through the first eight games and frame what’s to come over the final 10 weeks and beyond. Teams are ranked below by where each stands in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and each team’s current odds to win the division are also included.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Detroit Lions (6-1)
FPI rank: 1
Chances to make the playoffs: 96.1%
Chances to win their division: 65.1%
What we know: At 6-1, the Lions are among the NFL’s elite and look like they have a shot to compete for the franchise’s first Super Bowl title. The reigning NFC North champions also secured their first victory in 50 years over a team that was 5-0 or better with a win at Minnesota in Week 7. They are showing no signs of slowing down.
What we don’t know yet: Can wide receiver Jameson Williams become the player the Lions need him to be for a full season? Williams, the 12th selection of the 2022 NFL draft, got off to a strong start in his third season. He is second on the team in both receiving yards (361) and touchdowns (3), behind All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. But can he keep up that production for a full season? He’s currently serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing-drug policy. Only time will tell.
Stat that defined the first half: QB Jared Goff has played at an MVP level, with an 83.5% completion percentage in his past four games. That output set the NFL record for the highest completion percentage over any four-game span in NFL history, per ESPN Research. He has also completed five 35-yard passing TDs this season, which is the most in the NFL, as he has a plethora of talented offensive skill players with which to work.
Biggest injury concern: Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson had surgery on a fractured left tibia and fibula suffered in Week 6, and the Lions say he could return for a potential Super Bowl appearance. The coaching staff is using a committee approach to make up for the loss but may need to consider outside options to help down the stretch. — Eric Woodyard
Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
FPI rank: 2
Chances to make the playoffs: 93.4%
Chances to win their division: 56.8%
What we know: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are one of the best — and most resilient — teams in the NFL. Baltimore became the sixth team in the past 40 years to win five straight games after starting 0-2. Four of the previous five teams that did so made the playoffs, and two of them (the 2007 New York Giants and the 1993 Dallas Cowboys) went on to win the Super Bowl.
What we don’t know yet: Whether the Ravens’ pass defense will rebound. Baltimore ranks last in the NFL against the pass, giving up 2,331 yards through the air. This is surprising because it’s essentially the same secondary that finished No. 6 in pass defense a year ago. The issue is big plays. The Ravens have allowed 21 completions of 25 or more yards, the most in the league.
Stat that defined the first half: The Ravens will go as far as Jackson, Derrick Henry and their high-scoring offense takes them. When they score more than 24 points, they are 5-0. When the Ravens are held to 24 points or less, they are 0-3. Baltimore is second for the NFL’s top scoring team, averaging 29.5 points per game.
Biggest injury concern: Keaton Mitchell. The speedy running back has begun his three-week window to be activated off the physically unable to perform list after suffering a significant knee injury toward the end of last season. If Mitchell can return to form this season, the NFL’s No. 1 offense would get even more explosive. — Jamison Hensley
Buffalo Bills (6-2)
FPI rank: 3
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.3%
Chances to win their division: 98.4%
What we know: The Bills’ defensive depth is strong, but there are concerns with the run defense and third-down defense. The unit can make the necessary plays and stops when needed, and despite overall issues limiting teams on the ground (5.1 yards per rush, 29th) and third downs (41.5%, 22nd), there have been improvements in both areas.
What we don’t know yet: What WR Amari Cooper‘s impact will be on this offense. Cooper will have a significant role down the stretch. But he finished with three receiving yards, his fewest in a game since 2019, in Week 8 vs. Seattle. It will take time to get the full picture of what trading for the five-time Pro Bowler does for this offense — his presence alone has lifted the rest of the receiving core.
Stat that defined the first half: Turnover margin: plus-11. The Bills lead the league in turnover margin, in large part thanks to quarterback Josh Allen. Allen went 203 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, the longest streak by any quarterback to start a season in Bills franchise history, throwing his first in Week 8. The Bills’ offense as a whole has done a good job protecting the football, with three fumbles this season.
Biggest injury concern: Can linebacker Matt Milano return? Milano is on injured reserve with a torn bicep suffered during training camp practice, but he could try to make his way back to the field late in the year. He could be a late boost to this defense. –– Alaina Getzenberg
Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
FPI rank: 4
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chances to win their division: 96.4%
What we know: The Chiefs are strong enough defensively to win another Super Bowl. They have come up with a number of big stops in close games, including two in the fourth quarter of a five-point win over the Falcons. They held each of their first six opponents under their season scoring average, a streak that was snapped last week against the Raiders, who scored a late TD to get above their average.
What we don’t know yet: The Chiefs are in uncharted territory with Patrick Mahomes throwing more interceptions (nine) than touchdown passes (eight). Can they win a third straight Super Bowl if that continues? That’s difficult to picture, but they are the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team, so it’s not wise to suggest it’s impossible.
Stat that defined the first half: The Chiefs are averaging 122 rushing yards, close to their best ever in 12 seasons under Andy Reid. Having a reliable running game is one of the biggest reasons the Chiefs are 7-0 and the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team. The rushing attack has helped the Chiefs win despite Mahomes not playing to his standards and the team going through a rash of injuries at wide receiver.
Biggest injury concern: Jaylen Watson was playing well and giving the Chiefs a nice tandem at starting cornerback with Trent McDuffie before Watson’s season-ending injury in Week 7 against the 49ers. The Chiefs will have difficulty replacing him with Joshua Williams or Nazeeh Johnson, their top candidates to fill in. — Adam Teicher
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
FPI rank: 5
Chances to make the playoffs: 84.7%
Chances to win their division: 51.3%
What we know: The offense has the ability to carry them. Running back Saquon Barkley has been as advertised, the offensive line has largely held up without Jason Kelce, and Jalen Hurts has one of the top receiver duos in the game in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts turned the ball over too much early in the year, but the Eagles have leaned on the ground game more of late and his efficiency has subsequently gone up, as he has had zero giveaways the past three games. They are emitting signs that they can be an elite offense over the second half.
What we don’t know yet: Whether this is a championship-caliber defense. Vic Fangio’s group has strung together three strong games in a row, limiting opponents to 10 points per game over that stretch. The secondary has kept playmakers such as Malik Nabers and Ja’Marr Chase in check, and the linebacker play has been better than expected. The pass rush has been inconsistent, though, particularly from the edge rushers, and the group has to prove that what it has shown in recent weeks is sustainable.
Stat that defined the first half: Barkley has recorded 100-plus scrimmage yards in six of the first seven games of the season. He is the third Eagle to do so, joining LeSean McCoy (2011) and Wilbert Montgomery (1979). The Eagles believed they were getting a special player when they signed him to a three-year, $37.75 million contract this offseason, but he has blown away the city’s expectations to this point.
Biggest injury concern: Left tackle Jordan Mailata has been out since Week 6 with a hamstring injury. He’s eligible to return from injured reserve Week 11 against Washington. Mailata has developed into one of the better blind-side protectors in the game and needs to be in there for the offense to operate at its highest efficiency, though Fred Johnson has been solid overall in relief. — Tim McManus
San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
FPI rank: 6
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.8%
Chances to win their division: 38.8%
What we know: These 49ers aren’t last year’s 49ers, which is to say that most weeks are going to be a battle. After good injury luck last season, this year’s team has been ravaged, leaving San Francisco without many of its top stars. That has proved more difficult to overcome after the team traded away valuable draft picks in recent years. There is plenty of talent here, but if the “A” players aren’t on the field, the 49ers will need their promising rookie class and some unproven depth to carry the load consistently against good opponents.
What we don’t know yet: When and how many of the injured 49ers are going to return. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and receiver Brandon Aiyuk will miss the rest of the season, but there could be significant reinforcements on the way. San Francisco hopes to welcome back running back Christian McCaffrey, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga, defensive lineman Yetur Gross-Matos and kicker Jake Moody sometime after the bye. Given the difficulty of the upcoming schedule, the sooner the better.
Stat that defined the first half: The 49ers have a 57.1% goal-to-go efficiency, which ranks 29th in the NFL. The consistent inability to cash in for touchdowns when inside the opponent’s 10-yard line has popped up repeatedly in both wins and losses. It has hurt most in disappointing defeats against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals, two games the 49ers believe they should have won handily.
Biggest injury concern: McCaffrey. Choosing just one is difficult, but McCaffrey is the engine that drives this offense, and coach Kyle Shanahan has expressed optimism McCaffrey will return from Achilles tendinitis against Tampa Bay on Nov. 10. If he can and is close to full strength, the offense could be good enough to carry this team to contention. — Nick Wagoner
Green Bay Packers (6-2)
FPI rank: 7
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.9%
Chances to win their division: 21.1%
What we know: It looks like coach Matt LaFleur made the right call when he hired Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator. While they still have issues stopping the run, the Packers look like a team that — if QB Jordan Love and the offense have an off day — can win because of its defense, not in spite of it.
What we don’t know yet: Whether this team can get back on top of the rugged NFC North. Green Bay has played one division game — a Week 4 loss to the Vikings. Five division games await over the final nine, beginning Sunday against the first-place Lions. In addition to the two games against the Lions, two against the Bears and the return trip to Minnesota, the Packers still have to face the 49ers, Seahawks and Saints. If they make the playoffs, it might be as a wild-card team again.
Stat that defined the first half: The Packers now have 19 takeaways through eight games — one more than they had all of last season. It’s their most takeaways in the first eight games of a season since 2011, when they also had 19.
Biggest injury concern: Just when Love seemed to be mostly recovered from his Week 1 left knee injury, he strained his groin early in Sunday’s win over the Jaguars and couldn’t finish the game. The Packers won both games that Malik Willis started in Love’s place, and he led a game-winning drive in relief in Jacksonville. All of Willis’ wins have come against AFC South teams, but if he has to play more, the schedule turns more difficult in the second half of the season. — Rob Demovsky
Washington Commanders (6-2)
FPI rank: 8
Chances to make the playoffs: 83.8%
Chances to win their division: 45.2%
What we know: Washington found its quarterback. Rookie Jayden Daniels has been everything the Commanders hoped for: a dynamic player (1,736 yards passing, 424 yards rushing in seven games) who has set multiple records for accuracy. He has impressed coaches and teammates with his work ethic and leadership.
What we don’t know yet: Will the defense produce? The Commanders struggled vs. top offenses but shut down bad offenses, which is why they’re 10th in points and 14th in yards. The good news for Washington: The Commanders play seven offenses ranked 17th or lower in points per game over the final eight games.
Stat that defined the first half: 30.1. That’s how many points Washington has averaged offensively, ranking third. The Commanders averaged less than 20 points per game in five of the past six years. The last time Washington averaged more than 30 points a game was in 1991 — the last season the franchise won a Super Bowl.
Biggest injury concern: Running back Brian Robinson Jr. He missed one game with a right knee injury and was questionable for two others. He powers their run game. An extended absence would hurt. — John Keim
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
FPI rank: 9
Chances to make the playoffs: 87.4%
Chances to win their division: 39.4%
What we know: The Steelers’ defense is legit. Not only is the unit second in points allowed, giving up 14.9 points per game, but it’s also fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (90.5). And while the Steelers have given up an average of 219.8 passing yards per game, they’re tied for second with 10 interceptions through eight weeks.
What we don’t know yet: Has Pittsburgh answered the quarterback question? To borrow a line from Mike Tomlin, the offense was good, not to be confused with great, under Justin Fields. And though it’s a small sample, Russell Wilson‘s willingness to throw the deep ball injected life into the previously stagnant pass game. Will Wilson retain the job? Will the Steelers go back to Fields because he offers more mobility?
Stat that defined the first half: Turnover differential. Thanks to a splashy defense making well-timed, significant plays, the Steelers are tied for second in the league with a +10 turnover differential. The defense has 15 takeaways — also tied for second in the league — thanks to 10 picks and five fumble recoveries, while the offense has played relatively clean football with just one interception and four fumbles. The next step is to build off games like the win against the Jets where the offense scored 14 points off those turnovers.
Biggest injury concern: Russell Wilson. He recovered from a setback in his calf injury to take the field in Week 7, but now it’s about staying healthy and preventing another aggravation to that training camp calf injury. — Brooke Pryor
Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
FPI rank: 10
Chances to make the playoffs: 69.2%
Chances to win their division: 10.8%
What we know: The Vikings far outpaced external expectations, nearly reaching their projected win total of 6.8 games (via ESPN’s Football Power Index) by early October. Led by a defense that ranks atop the league in DVOA, they have emerged as one of the genuine power teams in the NFC.
What we don’t know yet: Quarterback Sam Darnold is having the best season of his seven-year career, but can the Vikings count on that continuing? Darnold is taking advantage of the skill players and coaching around him, but he has never led a team during the pressures of a second-half playoff run.
Stat that defined the first half: 0-0. That’s the Vikings’ record when one of their first-round picks, quarterback J.J. McCarthy and linebacker Dallas Turner, starts a game. McCarthy hasn’t played due to a season-ending knee injury and Turner is buried on the depth chart, yet the Vikings have still been one of the league’s best teams.
Biggest injury concern: Running back Aaron Jones dealt with a right hamstring injury earlier this season, and the offense was notably different when he was off the field. He’s healthy now, but as he approaches his 30th birthday, Jones’ health and availability will be a significant contributor to the ultimate outcome of the Vikings’ season. — Kevin Seifert
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
FPI rank: 11
Chances to make the playoffs: 47.3%
Chances to win their division: 27.8%
What we know: Despite a 4-4 start and Baker Mayfield leading the league with 21 touchdown passes, they’re in trouble. The two players who entered Week 7 tied for the league lead in touchdowns — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — are out, Godwin likely for the season and Evans until at least Week 12.
What we don’t know yet: How the Bucs will absorb these losses, which come at one of the most daunting points of the team’s schedule with the league’s lone unbeaten, the Chiefs, up next on “Monday Night Football” in Week 9. So far, receivers Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard haven’t had to make a whole lot of contributions because of the success of their top two. They’ll be counted on to step up.
Stat that defined the first half: The Bucs’ 27 offensive touchdowns are tied for the third most with the Bills (trailing the Ravens by two and Lions by one), a credit to their offensive explosion under new coordinator Liam Coen — who seems to get the most out of Mayfield and has revitalized the run game.
Biggest injury concern: With Godwin and Evans out, and starting cornerback Jamel Dean now on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, it can’t get any worse. Or maybe it could. But it already feels like a doomsday scenario. — Jenna Laine
Houston Texans (6-2)
FPI rank: 12
Chances to make the playoffs: 95.5%
Chances to win their division: 89.5%
What we know: Houston’s offense is at its best when running back Joe Mixon is available. He missed three games after exiting Week 3 with an ankle injury, and the team averaged 16 points without him. He’s third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (100.6), and his six total touchdowns are tied for 10th.
What we don’t know yet: Can the Texans make a deep playoff run with their pass-protection woes? Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been pressured on 40.7% of his dropbacks (fifth most), and he has been sacked 22 times, tied for third most. If they can’t fix that, they will most likely fall short of the Super Bowl.
Stat that defined the first half: Houston’s record in one-score games: 5-1. The Texans have been able to execute in games that are tight, including two game-winning drives by Stroud against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.
Biggest injury concern: Wide receivers. Stroud will be forced to operate without his top WRs. Nico Collins is on injured reserve (hamstring) for at least one more game and Stefon Diggs was ruled out for the season after tearing his right ACL in Week 8. Collins will return, but hamstring injuries tend to linger. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chicago Bears (4-3)
FPI rank: 13
Chances to make the playoffs: 26.7%
Chances to win their division: 3.0%
What we know: It’s impressive how quickly Chicago mitigated many of its offensive issues after a 1-2 start. Since throwing for 93 yards in his NFL debut, Caleb Williams has shown steady improvement through his first six games with back-to-back 300-yard, two-touchdown performances against the Rams and Panthers.
What we don’t know yet: Can Chicago’s offense continue to lead the way? This offense has found its identity by leaning on RB D’Andre Swift and getting Williams’ top targets (DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze) heavily involved. Can that continue as the team faces better defenses?
Stat that defined the first half: Chicago has allowed 21 points or fewer in 12 straight games, which ties its longest streak over the past 30 seasons. The catalyst behind that surge? Defensive end Montez Sweat. Since Sweat was traded to the Bears on Oct. 31, 2023, Chicago has allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.5) in the NFL.
Biggest injury concern: The Bears have several in their secondary, but Kyler Gordon‘s hamstring injury could spell trouble if it lingers. Chicago’s nickel corner plays a big role on blitz packages and was playing some of his best football — seven tackles (five solo), TFL — at the time he injured a hamstring against Jacksonville in Week 6. — Courtney Cronin
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
FPI rank: 14
Chances to make the playoffs: 77.2%
Chances to win their division: 70.6%
What we know: The Falcons are in a two-way race in the NFC South and have a leg up, winning their first three divisional games. Other than that, the jury is out. Before a rout of the Panthers in Week 6, Atlanta had not been ahead or behind by more than eight points in any game.
What we don’t know yet: Their true identity. The passing game has stood out at times, like when Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards against the Buccaneers. The running game with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier has looked formidable at other times. The defense has kept the Falcons in games, but doesn’t force a ton of turnovers or get sacks.
Stat that defined the first half: When the Falcons beat the Panthers in Week 6, it was the first time the team had won this season without trailing in the final minute of regulation. Comebacks against the Eagles, Saints and Bucs showed mettle, but a full, four-quarter performance has been tough to come by.
Biggest injury concern: The Falcons have been relatively lucky with injuries, but Cousins’ surgically repaired right Achilles still looms large. He has been able to ease some concerns, however. — Marc Raimondi
New York Jets (2-6)
FPI rank: 15
Chances to make the playoffs: 11.6%
Chances to win their division: 1.2%
What we know: There’s a difference between a roster and a team. The Jets have assembled a roster of recognizable names, but they’re not playing like a cohesive team. Coach Robert Saleh was scapegoated for the poor start (fired after five games), but he wasn’t the problem. Older players such as Aaron Rodgers, Mike Williams and Tyron Smith haven’t lived up to expectations. Foundational players such as Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall have encountered adversity for the first time in their young careers. As a result, the team is underachieving.
What we don’t know yet: Rodgers and Davante Adams have been reunited for two games, so you have to believe their chemistry will continue to trend toward what it once was in Green Bay. The remaining schedule is favorable (seven games against teams with .500 records or worse). Problem is, the hole probably is too deep to escape.
Stat that defined the first half: Rodgers has seven interceptions. You’re talking about a quarterback who has hit double digits in three of his previous 16 seasons as a starter. At his current pace, he will finish with 15, which would be a career high. You know things are rough when Rodgers, a four-time MVP, is throwing picks at a Zach Wilson-like pace.
Biggest injury concern: MLB C.J. Mosley, who missed three games with a toe injury, is now dealing with an injured neck that required a visit to a neck and spine specialist. This casts doubt over his immediate availability. The defense misses his leadership and toughness. — Rich Cimini
Cleveland Browns (2-6)
FPI rank: 16
Chances to make the playoffs: 9.3%
Chances to win their division: 0.6%
What we know: The Browns’ investment in Deshaun Watson backfired. Cleveland was 1-5 with Watson playing the worst football of his career before he tore his Achilles in a Week 7 loss to the Bengals. In three years, Cleveland is now left with 19 starts from Watson and consecutive season-ending injuries.
What we don’t know yet: Can quarterback Jameis Winston provide another Joe Flacco-type run? Like when Flacco stepped in last year and helped lead Cleveland to the postseason, Winston transformed the Browns’ offense in his first start in Week 8. He was on the verge of a few turnovers but after an upset win over the Ravens, the Browns (2-6) have a more positive outlook.
Stat that defined the first half: Winston threw for 334 yards in his first start in Week 8 against the Ravens. Watson failed to reach 200 yards in any of his seven starts.
Biggest injury concern: RB Nick Chubb. Back from last year’s severe knee injury, Chubb could balance out a suddenly explosive passing game if he can stay healthy. — Daniel Oyefusi
Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
FPI rank: 17
Chances to make the playoffs: 19.1%
Chances to win their division: 15.8%
What we know: The Rams aren’t out of the division race. Despite their 1-4 start, the NFC West is up for grabs. The Rams (3-4) are just a half-game back of the other three teams (4-4). L.A. plays in Seattle in Week 9.
What we don’t know yet: Can the defense can be strong enough to make the playoffs? The Rams’ young defense is capable but has had growing pains early in the season. The unit has shown a lot of promise in back-to-back games, including against a talented Vikings offense.
Stat that defined the first half: Kyren Williams has scored 10 of the Rams’ 14 offensive touchdowns. The Rams’ offense was missing their two star receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and while they were out, the unit leaned on Williams and the running game. Williams has eight rushing and two receiving touchdowns this season.
Biggest injury concern: OL Steve Avila. L.A. has dealt with several injuries on the line in the first half, including Avila, who sprained his MCL in Week 1 and is on IR. — Sarah Barshop
Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
FPI rank: 18
Chances to make the playoffs: 28.1%
Chances to win their division: 3.2%
What we know: Cincinnati’s passing game can function at a really high level. Through Week 7, QB Joe Burrow was fourth in the league in Total QBR, Ja’Marr Chase led the league in receiving yards and Tee Higgins had no drops and was 13th in receiving yards per game.
What we don’t know yet: Can the Bengals put a complete game together? Cincinnati’s offense and defense have yet to fire at the same time. When one side has been playing well, the other has struggled. That played a role in Cincinnati blowing leads against Kansas City and Baltimore, two of the best teams in the AFC.
Stat that defined the first half: Through seven games, the Bengals ranked 29th in the league in sacks per dropback (4.3%). Injuries decimated the defensive line early in the season, which played a role in the unit’s struggles. The defense was disruptive enough in Weeks 6 and 7 against beleaguered quarterbacks to help the team get back-to-back wins.
Biggest injury concern: Tee Higgins. Higgins has had hamstring issues throughout his career and has battled them this season. When he’s on the field, Cincinnati has one of the league’s best offenses. — Ben Baby
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
FPI rank: 19
Chances to make the playoffs: 63.2%
Chances to win their division: 2.1%
What we know: The Chargers have a good defense. Under the previous regime, L.A.’s defense was its Achilles’ heel, but it has been this team’s strong suit through seven games. They are allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL (13.0) and have allowed 20 points or fewer in all six games this season.
What we don’t know yet: Is offensive coordinator Greg Roman the right fit for this offense? The lone consistency in this offense is the unit’s abysmal second halves. L.A. went five games without a second half score before scoring twice against the New Orleans Saints. Injuries have hurt this offense, but it doesn’t excuse their offensive ineptitude late in games this season.
Stat that defined the first half: The Chargers rank 25th in pass block win rate (55.7%) Opponents have sacked quarterback Justin Herbert multiple times for five straight games, putting him at 15 sacks this season. That number would likely be much higher if Herbert didn’t evade any of the would-be sacks, making throws with defenders draped on him. Herbert has been sacked three times in three straight games.
Biggest injury concern: The Chargers placed Asante Samuel Jr., the team’s top cornerback, on injured reserve three weeks ago with a shoulder injury. His absence leaves them vulnerable in the secondary. — Kris Rhim
Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
FPI rank: 20
Chances to make the playoffs: 37.1%
Chances to win their division: 32.2%
What we know: This team is as unpredictable as the weather in Minnesota in March. The Cardinals have been a roller coaster, consistently inconsistent. This much is known: When the offense is clicking, it’s dynamic and is capable of beating anyone, and when the defense tightens the screws, it’s difficult to score on it.
What we don’t know yet: We have no idea how this season is going to pan out. Arizona has the talent on both sides of the ball to go on a run and leave the NFC West in its dust, especially with the next stretch of winnable games on tap. But, as the Cardinals have shown, they win when least expected and lose when they’re least expected.
Stat that defined the first half: 5.2. That’s how many yards per carry the Cardinals are averaging, which is third best in the NFL. Being able to gain a first down every two carries sets the tone for an offense that has struggled to throw the ball throughout the season and allows the run game to carry the offense at times.
Biggest injury concern: Losing outside linebacker Dennis Gardeck to an ACL injury last week leaves the Cardinals in a bit of a predicament. Zaven Collins is their only healthy regular pass rusher, which means they’ll have to start trusting other edge rushers to fill Gardeck’s role. — Josh Weinfuss
New Orleans Saints (2-6)
FPI rank: 21
Chances to make the playoffs: 3.0%
Chances to win their division: 1.6%
What we know: The Saints looked unbeatable in the first two games, but they haven’t been able to get close to that level of play again. Injuries have played a part, with their wide receivers and offensive line taking significant hits, but they’ve also struggled on defense with communication, missed tackles and inability to stop the run.
What we don’t know yet: Can the Saints rebound? Saints coach Dennis Allen said he believes they are capable of playing good football and hopes to get a lot of the injured players back soon, but the Saints are on a six-game skid and haven’t been competitive in their past few games. How they play when they get healthy will determine the rest of their season.
Stat that defined the first half: The Saints are last in total defense, allowing 392.8 yards per game. They were particularly bad against the run, which used to be a strength under coach Dennis Allen. They have allowed more than 400 yards in three of the past six games (all losses).
Biggest injury concern: Quarterback Derek Carr. Carr injured his oblique against the Chiefs in Week 5. He could be back by Week 9, but the key is how effective he can be upon return from his injury. — Katherine Terrell
Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
FPI rank: 22
Chances to make the playoffs: 12.4%
Chances to win their division: 3.5%
What we know: If the Cowboys are going to make it to the playoffs for a fourth straight season, they will have to improve greatly on both sides of the ball. The defensive numbers are near the bottom of the league. The offensive numbers aren’t much better, especially the running game. Injuries have hurt, but inconsistency has hurt more.
What we don’t know yet: Can the offense find its form? QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb have to produce more than they have. The offensive line must protect Prescott better and do more in the run game. Last season, the Cowboys were No. 1 in the league in points per game. If they are going to make a run to the postseason, it has to be with the offense carrying the show.
Stat that defined the first half: Minus-8. The Cowboys have turned the ball over too many times (13) and have not taken it away enough (5). For a team that has feasted on takeaways the past three seasons, it’s been surprising. They have to find their complementary football formula in the second half of the season.
Biggest injury concern: DeMarcus Lawrence is their best run defender and had three sacks before suffering a foot sprain. Whenever he comes back, can he be the same player for a defense that will need a boost? — Todd Archer
Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
FPI rank: 23
Chances to make the playoffs: 17.4%
Chances to win their division: 13.3%
What we know: Mike Macdonald’s defense is a work in progress. It was among the best in the league over the first three weeks while facing below-average quarterbacks, but life got harder as the QBs got better. As good as they were while forcing three takeaways against Atlanta in Week 7 and holding the Falcons to 14 points, their tackling and run fitting remains an issue.
What we don’t know yet: Will the offensive line improve? Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards (2,197) despite playing behind the league’s sixth-worst line in terms of pass block win rate (52.2%). Getting the run game going should help keep defenses honest, and they’re getting healthier at right tackle after the revolving door they’ve dealt with at that spot.
Stat that defined the first half: Seattle ranks last in the NFL in designed rush rate at 30%. That’s not how the defensive-minded Macdonald wants his offense to operate, but the Seahawks have been forced into dropback mode while chasing some large deficits in games. They’ll be at their best once they can lean on Kenneth Walker III and maximize Smith’s strength as a play-action passer.
Biggest injury concern: At one point down to their fourth option at right tackle in rookie Michael Jerrell, the Seahawks are expecting Abraham Lucas to return sometime after their Week 10 bye from a knee injury that required offseason surgery. — Brady Henderson
Indianapolis Colts (4-4)
FPI rank: 24
Chances to make the playoffs: 46.1%
Chances to win their division: 9.1%
What we know: They compete. The Colts aren’t a contender, but they’ve managed to stay relevant in the AFC despite underperforming on defense and being plagued with injuries to top performers like QB Anthony Richardson, RB Jonathan Taylor and DT DeForest Buckner. They have been in every game, and their three losses have come by an average of 3.7 points.
What we don’t know yet: There’s still no clarity on the long-term prospects of Richardson, who was benched on Tuesday in favor of veteran Joe Flacco. Richardson has started just 10 games but now faces at an uncertain future after performing more unevenly this season than in his four starts in 2023. The Colts’ 2025 QB outlook is now murkier than ever.
Stat that defined the first half: The Colts rank 12th in points allowed (21.3) despite ranking 29th in opponent yards per game (29th). That has allowed the Colts to hang on even when their defense is seemingly struggling to stop opponents. The Colts have found ways to get late stops or produce timely turnovers that have loomed large.
Biggest injury concern: Taylor has made significant progress with his right ankle injury, but his difficulties with that same ankle date back to the 2022 season and have seemed to become a recurring issue. — Stephen Holder
Miami Dolphins (2-5)
FPI rank: 25
Chances to make the playoffs: 8.0%
Chances to win their division: 0.3%
What we know: The first half of the season fell short of the Dolphins’ expectations. The injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a heavy impact on the team’s offensive production, but with a 2-5 record and 3.5 games separating them from the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills, we know the Dolphins have an uphill climb to not only secure their fifth consecutive winning season, but also their third straight playoff berth.
What we don’t know yet: Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa is not the team’s “savior” but it’s natural to think this floundering offense will pick up upon his return. But Miami’s offense was still finding its footing in the game-and-a-half that Tagovailoa played this season, and there’s no guarantee it will automatically return to one of the league’s best. Also, with the 17th-most difficult remaining schedule according to ESPN’s FPI, can the Dolphins figure things out in time to make a playoff push?
Stat that defined the first half: Remember when the Dolphins scored 70 points in a single game last season? Well, they’ve scored just 70 total points in their first six games this season. They’ve scored six total touchdowns and rank dead last in the NFL in scoring. Despite a stout defense, until their offense can put up points, it will be difficult for the Dolphins to win games.
Biggest injury concern: Tua Tagovailoa. He’s been symptom-free since the day after suffering a concussion on Sept. 12 that earned him a monthlong stay on injured reserve. As we’ve just seen for the past five weeks, without him, the Dolphins are a different class of team. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
FPI rank: 26
Chances to make the playoffs: 5.7%
Chances to win their division: 0.8%
What we know: The Jaguars are struggling with pass defense. They have allowed the second-most passing yards (2,169) and the most passing TDs (17) in the NFL in part because cornerback Ronald Darby and safeties Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson have struggled. Help could be on the way if Andrew Wingard (IR) and Tashaun Gipson (suspended) are cleared to return.
What we don’t know yet: What will owner Shad Khan do if the Jaguars continue to lose games? There is a tough stretch of games ahead featuring Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit and Houston, which will make turning things around tough. Khan said before the season he expected playoffs. And if the Jaguars only have three or four wins in early December, would he decide to move on from coach Doug Pederson?
Stat that defined the first half: The Jaguars have allowed 55 explosive plays (defined as 15 or more yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats), which is the second-most in the NFL behind the Ravens (67). Fifty of those have been passes, and only Baltimore (67) and Minnesota (51) have allowed more. It’s an illustration of how bad the Jaguars have been on defense, especially when it comes to the lack of pass rush (their 28% QB pressure percentage ranks 29th).
Biggest injury concern: Rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. suffered a chest contusion Sunday. While Pederson said there’s a chance he could play this week, it’s a matter of how much pain he can tolerate. If he plays, he could aggravate the injury further, so the Jaguars have to be careful because Thomas is a budding star and they’re already down Christian Kirk (broken collarbone). Thomas is just the fifth player since 2000 to record 500 receiving yards and four receiving TDs in the first seven games of their career. He is also on pace to break franchise rookie records for catches and receiving yards (64 catches, 865 yards by Justin Blackmon in 2012). — Mike DiRocco
Denver Broncos (5-3)
FPI rank: 27
Chances to make the playoffs: 47.2%
Chances to win their division: 1.5%
What we know: The defense has done the heavy lifting. Vance Joseph’s group has kept the Broncos in every game — their three losses are by seven or fewer points and they’ve surrendered more than 20 points in just two games — and has fueled their victories. The Broncos have scored two touchdowns and two safeties on defense and are in the league’s top three in scoring defense (15.0 points allowed per game) and total defense (282.6 yards allowed per game). They have also allowed touchdowns on only 41.2% of red zone drives, good for second in the league. They’re doing this despite losing leading tackler Alex Singleton for the season with a torn ACL.
What we don’t know yet: If coach Sean Payton, the Broncos’ offensive playcaller, can find the sweet spot with what he’d like to do on offense and what the Broncos can do as rookie quarterback Bo Nix moves through a bumpy learning curve. Payton has kept Nix busy, as the rookie QB is eighth in the NFL with 261 passing attempts through eight games, but the impact of those throws hasn’t been great despite a recent uptick. Nix currently ranks 25th in completion percentage (63.2%), 29th in yards per attempt (5.9) and is tied for 16th with eight touchdown passes. He has played more efficiently when the Broncos cocoon him more in a run-heavy attack, but Payton has been reluctant to do that regularly, saying “it’s opponent based.”
Stat that defined the first half: 28. As in 28 rushing attempts in a game. Look, no one is endorsing a return to 50-50 run-pass splits or a 1970s throwback plan in which they’d run to set up the pass. But the Broncos have been dominant on defense and have largely been in close games. Nix also plays more efficiently when he is involved in the run plan and bottom line is they win when they have at least 28 carries. In their five wins they’ve have had at least 28 rushing attempts and did not reach that total in any of their three losses.
Biggest injury concern: The Broncos got brief glimpse of life without Pro Bowl cornerback Pat Surtain II, who suffered a concussion on the first defensive snap of the Week 6 loss to the Chargers and did not play in the Week 7 win over the Saints before returning in Week 8 against the Panthers. The Broncos have depth at corner in Riley Moss and Levi Wallace, along with nickel Ja’Quan McMillian, but Surtain is their best player. He gives the defense the trump card and locked down one WR1 after another early in the season. So him missing more time would be detrimental to Denver’s defense. — Jeff Legwold
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
FPI rank: 28
Chances to make the playoffs: 2.9%
Chances to win their division: 0.1%
What we know: The Raiders, despite many signs pointing to it with the trade of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams to the Jets for a conditional third-round pick, are not mailing it in. “We’re not tanking,” coach Antonio Pierce insisted after Las Vegas could muster only five field goals while committing four turnovers in a 20-15 loss at the Rams. “We’re not trying to lose games to do anything better for the future. Hell, we’re trying to be the best team we can and, right now, we’re not a good team.”
What we don’t know yet: The Raiders insist they are not tanking, but are they in full rebuild mode with Tom Brady and his 10% minority ownership stake potentially having a major say on the football operations side of things going forward? The telltale sign is simple — if the Raiders put the face of the franchise and three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby on the trade market, then, yes, the Raiders are in full rebuild mode.
Stat that defined the first half: The Raiders’ -13 turnover differential is last in the NFL. Not much else can be said for a team that has only three takeaways (three INTS) while QB Gardner Minshew is responsible for a league-leading 10 turnovers. Per ESPN Research, Las Vegas’ -13 mark is tied for the Raiders’ worst TO differential through seven games in franchise history (also had -13 at this point in 1961, their second season as a franchise).
Biggest injury concern: Aidan O’Connell‘s broken right (passing) thumb. The second-year QB’s injury, two games after he replaced a benched Minshew, set in motion the Raiders signing Desmond Ridder off the Cardinals’ practice squad. With Minshew a turnover machine and Ridder getting up to speed with the offense, O’Connell’s return timeline will dictate the Raiders’ arms race down the stretch. — Paul Gutierrez
New York Giants (2-6)
FPI rank: 29
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.4%
Chances to win their division: 0.1%
What we know: The Giants still aren’t a good team. They struggle to score points and coach and playcaller Brian Daboll is pulling out his hair (or beard in this case) trying to figure a way to create big plays. Their biggest play in losses during Weeks 6-7 was a measly 15 yards.
What we don’t know yet: What is going to happen with quarterback Daniel Jones. It seems shaky, at best, whether he makes it through the season as the starter. He has an injury guarantee for next season ($22 million) that could come into consideration and Daboll already started the process by pulling him for “a spark” several weeks back against the Eagles.
Stat that defined the first half: No need to get too cute here. The Giants are 31st in the NFL averaging 14.6 points per game. That’s less than last year. It’s less than 2021 when Joe Judge got fired, and he had Jake Fromm finish the season as his starting quarterback. It’s just hard to win games when you can’t score consistently.
Biggest injury concern: Outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux is sidelined at least through Week 8 with a broken bone in his wrist. Can he put a club on it and play? The Giants need as many good players as they can get on the field. — Jordan Raanan
Tennessee Titans (1-6)
FPI rank: 30
Chances to make the playoffs: 1.7%
Chances to win their division: 0.5%
What we know: This team is a work in progress in Brian Callahan’s first season. Offensively, the thing they do best is run the ball as shown by their 119.7 yards per game average. But there are serious issues at quarterback. The expected offensive fireworks under Callahan haven’t come yet. Tennessee is averaging only 17.1 points per game.
What we don’t know yet: The defense leads the league in yards allowed (265.4), but are they for real? In their past two games, they’ve been outscored 86-24, and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson’s unit has the fewest number of takeaways (three) in the NFL. The offense and special teams haven’t done the defense any favors, but one of the team’s strengths is beginning to weaken.
Stat that defined the first half: The Titans are tied for last in turnover differential (-13). That tells story of the season. The offense has a habit of turning the ball over at the worst times, including two that heavily contributed to one-score losses to the Bears and Jets. Only the Raiders (17) have turned the ball over more times than the Titans’ 16. Eight of the turnovers came by way of QB Will Levis, who has seven interceptions and one fumble.
Biggest injury concern: Levis has a grade 2 AC joint injury to his throwing shoulder and is week-to-week in a season in which the Titans are trying to figure out if he’s their franchise quarterback. — Turron Davenport
New England Patriots (2-6)
FPI rank: 31
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.8%
Chances to win their division: 0.1%
What we know: What was projected to be a season of growing pains under first-year coach Jerod Mayo will be just that. The Patriots altered the expectation of many with a surprising 16-10 win over the Bengals in Week 1, but it has been mostly downhill since. The Patriots knew they had a lot of personnel holes to fill — and it would take more than one year to do it — but nonetheless too many self-inflicted wounds and not playing smart football has resulted in a disappointing first half of the season. They hope Sunday’s come-from-behind 25-22 home win over the Jets might be the start of a stronger second half.
What we don’t know yet: How much can Drake Maye elevate the offense and make the Patriots more competitive? The Patriots waited until Week 6 to turn things over to the No. 3 overall draft pick and he has been arguably their best offensive player since. He became the only quarterback over the past five years to record 200-plus passing yards and two-plus passing TDs in each of his first two starts.
Stat that defined the first half: Seven starting offensive line configurations in the first seven games. Part of that was due to ineffective play, while another part of it was a result of injuries and personnel miscues (free agent signing Chukwuma Okorafor leaving the team after opening camp as the No. 1 LT) and backup center/free agent signing Nick Leverett being cut despite starting center David Andrews being lost for the season with a shoulder injury.
Biggest injury concern: Maye entered concussion protocol after being pulled from a Week 8 win over Jets by the NFL’s independent spotter in the second quarter after being hit while running with the ball. Mayo said he saw Maye at halftime and Maye was hoping to come back in the game. Veteran Jacoby Brissett steps back in to the starter’s role until Maye is ready to return. — Mike Reiss
Carolina Panthers (1-7)
FPI rank: 32
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
Chances to win their division: 0.1%
What we know: The Panthers are bad. That was predictable since they’re coming off an NFL-worst 2-15 record in 2023 and have had six straight losing seasons. Yet, they are worse than expected because injuries decimated the defense and quarterback Bryce Young was benched after going 0-2 before starting for an injured Andy Dalton in Sunday’s loss to the Broncos.
What we don’t know yet: Can Young justify the 2023 trade to draft him No. 1? His 2-17 record says no. But he has only three starts under the new staff and looked better Sunday. Coach Dave Canales needs to find out if Young can be the quarterback of the future, which he has said publicly is still possible.
Stat that defined the first half: The Panthers are on pace to give up the second-most points per game (33.8) in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). They trail only the 1966 Giants, who gave up 35.8. A big reason for that is injuries and their NFL-worst 154.6 rushing yards per game allowed.
Biggest injury concern: OLB D.J. Wonnum. He signed to rush opposite Jadeveon Clowney, but he hasn’t played due to setbacks while recovering from quadriceps surgery last season, though he is getting close. — David Newton
