BUFFALO — If you are in the optimism-pedaling business, then the Islanders’ advanced stats are a good place to ply your trade.
Amid scoring woes that have equated to four shutouts in 10 games and a 3-5-2 record entering Friday night’s match against the Sabres, the Islanders have offered the sort of clichés that every team going through a scoring drought tends to toss out: They are getting their chances, they are suffering bad luck and good opposing goaltending, they just need one to go in and the dam could break.
That ignores a number of key factors. But advanced numbers — at least at five-on-five — are largely in alignment with that view.
The Islanders are top five in the league in expected goals percentage, with a 54.37 percent share, per Natural Stat Trick.
They are outshooting their opposition, with a 52.92 percent shot share and getting a 53.74 percent shot attempt share — good possession numbers.
They are getting 52.05 percent of high-danger chances, as well.
That is not just about good defense, either — the Islanders are seventh in expected goals for and middle-of-the-pack in high-danger chances for.
Those are generally not the numbers of a struggling team.
“I thought we deserved better than that,” Patrick Roy said after Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Columbus. “At the end of the day, we just did not find the back of the net, but I love how hard our guys are working. We’re going to the net, bringing pucks to the net, bounces just not going our way. How many times did [Blue Jackets goalie Elvis Merzlikins] look behind him tonight? They were great chances and we couldn’t finish.”
On the ice from Long Island
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The Aaron Boone-like optimism after losses has become a common refrain for Roy, and it was not a completely unfair way to view Wednesday’s game.
“Obviously we gotta score to win hockey games,” Kyle Palmieri told The Post on Wednesday night. “So it’s on us to figure out a way to do that. I think habit-wise, the way we’re playing, we’re doing the right things and like anything, you keep doing the right things and you’ll get rewarded.”
But while the advanced stats offer an important perspective — and the Islanders have been a legitimately good defensive team at even strength — that leaves out some important puzzle pieces.
Namely, they are just showing what’s happening at five-on-five — which omits the Islanders’ abysmal 12.9 percent rate on the power play and 62.5 percent success rate on the penalty kill.
They are 29th on the power play and 31st on the PK so far this season, and both units were problematic last year, as well, which makes it tougher to hand wave as merely being a matter of small sample size.
At five-on-five, there are also elements that advanced numbers just can’t capture.
For example, Roy has repeatedly changed the forward lines — a sign that the head coach feels the team needs a spark — and even though they have gotten decent chances, the Islanders have played with a noticeable lack of urgency at points.
There is also the Islanders’ confidence, which even the optimistic Roy said is at the heart of the problem.
Even when they are leading in games, it feels like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop because they blew so many leads last season and have already let games slip away or get to overtime when leading this season.
That is unquantifiable, but it is still a big problem.
As much as the Islanders have continued to say the right things in front of cameras, it is obvious that they are going through it right now, and that the negative emotion is perhaps seeping into their play.
Their record might be a little harsh compared to the eye test. But certainly the Islanders don’t look like the fifth-best team in the league when you watch them — which, by expected goals at five-on-five, they are.
So take some optimism from the numbers if you want. But take it with a grain of salt.
