With tough races and retirements breaking strongly in their favor, Republicans are almost certain to take control of the US Senate from Democrats next week, regardless of who wins the 2024 presidential race.
Democrats, led by New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, control a narrow 51-49 majority, which includes a broad coalition of conservative Dems like West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and progressives like Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders.
But Manchin, long a dinosaur in his deep red state, is calling it quits this year, leaving an open race almost certain to be filled by the state’s popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice.
In Big Sky country, Montana Democrat John Tester is facing brutal headwinds from Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Tester, the last Dem standing in his state, has consistently trailed Sheehy in the polls.
“Republicans are confident we are going to retake the Senate majority. Right now we are competitive in battlegrounds across the country and will run through the tape as we try to win as many races as possible,” Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told The Post.
Flipping West Virginia and Montana alone would deliver a 51-49 majority for Republicans.
The GOP is fighting hard in four other races currently held by Democrats and rated as “toss up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political report — and they could gain a 55-45 majority if they win those contests.
Such a scenario would give the GOP a margin of power it has not seen in the Senate since its heyday under George W. Bush a generation ago.
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, also the last major Democrat standing in his state, is fighting for his political life against Republican Bernie Moreno. While Trump is expected to easily take the state, Brown is popular, and Buckeye split-ticket voters have conspired to make the Senate contest a dead heat.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is fending off a challenge from GOP financier David McCormick. Casey consistently has a small lead over McCormick heading into the race’s final days, but Republicans are hoping a Trump win in the state could carry him over the finish line.
In the swing state of Wisconsin, Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is facing a fierce challenge from entrepreneur Eric Hovde. Polls show her with a slight edge, and Republicans hope to ride Trump’s coattails.
In Michigan the retirement of four-term senator Debbie Stabenow has led to an open seat contest between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Polls have consistently given Slotkin a narrow, but meaningful edge in the race.
In terms of pickup, Democrat’s best hope is a Hail Mary effort against Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by Rep. Colin Allred; while Dan Osborn, an independent candidate, has showed momentum against Nebraska GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
