This is the time of year when the College Football Playoff race heats up, while middling teams attempt to salvage their seasons by achieving bowl eligibility.
I have my eye on two underdogs as they continue their “drive for six”— the number of regular-season wins needed for consideration.
Florida (first half +8.5) over Georgia
Florida’s blowout loss to in-state rival Miami in its opener set message boards ablaze across the Sunshine State two months ago.
Billy Napier’s seat was scorching hot, and college football pundits were already discussing his ouster as a certainty.
But “Sun Belt Billy” isn’t going out quietly.
The Gators have rallied, winning three of their past four. Their lone loss in the past six weeks came on the road against No. 7 Tennessee in overtime.
This resurgence has coincided with DJ Lagway’s ascension into the starting quarterback role.
The highly touted freshman has flashed this year, sharing reps with incumbent starter Graham Mertz.
Last week against Kentucky, he put it all together for the first time against an FBS defense.
After Lagway repeatedly burned the Wildcats with his legs, Kentucky brought extra defenders into the box and dared the freshman passer to beat them through the air when facing Cover-1 and Cover-0.
Lagway completed seven passes for 259 yards, breaking the game wide open.
What may surprise readers is that Georgia’s defensive profile is similar to Kentucky’s in a few key areas.
Per Pro Football Focus, both the Bulldogs and Wildcats rank in the mid-40s nationally in Coverage, while Kentucky is actually the better pass-rushing and Havoc squad.
This lack of disruption has allowed teams to take chances downfield with the football.
Mississippi State’s Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for more than 300 yards and three scores, and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe did even more damage with 374 yards through the air.
Given Lagway’s downfield success and Georgia’s willingness to leave their corners on islands (25% Cover 0/1 on third-and-10+), the blueprint is there for the Gators to find success through the air.
The other side of this first-half play is Mike Bobo.
The much-maligned offensive coordinator has struggled to script plays early in games.
The Bulldogs rank 89th in first-quarter scoring average, the second-lowest output among nationally ranked teams.
Performances against FCS Tennessee Tech and Mississippi State have inflated that scoring average.
I’m banking on Lagway hitting a few deep shots early, Florida generating 10 first-half points, and Georgia looking sluggish on their opening drives.
That game script should be enough to cover the first-half spread.
Tulsa (moneyline +125) over UAB
It’s white-flag time for Trent Dilfer and the Blazers.
UAB has lost six straight, all by double digits.
Their starting quarterback, Jacob Zeno, has been ruled out for this game.
And their defense has been downright awful in 2024.
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Pick a metric: UAB is in the bottom 15% of college football. The Blazers can’t tackle (109th), stay with receivers in coverage (104th), or generate negative plays (131st in Havoc).
That’s bad news when catching a Golden Hurricane team that is surging.
Tulsa just completed the largest comeback in college football this season, erasing a 42-17 deficit against UTSA in a thrilling one-point win last week.
Cooper Legas was masterful off the bench, finishing with 333 yards through the air and five scores.
Tulsa needs this win to have a shot at bowl eligibility, so I see it offering maximum effort against a flailing UAB team.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
