Early voting data is looking “a little scary” for Vice President Kamala Harris, former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina admitted Sunday.
Messina said the data — which shows a jump in GOP early-voter turnout — has prompted several of “my friends to call me panicking.
“The early vote numbers are a little scary,” the 2012 Obama aide conceded on MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki.” “Republicans didn’t do what they did last time.
“Last time, [Donald] Trump said, ‘Don’t early-vote,’ so they didn’t. Republicans do have an advantage in early-vote numbers [this time]. When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary,” he said.
Republican early-vote turnout has jumped in four battleground states that reveal party breakdown, as illustrated in a batch of data a source close to the Trump campaign previously shared with The Post.
That data includes a jump of 9 points in Arizona, 9 points in North Carolina, 4 points in Nevada and 22 points in Pennsylvania relative to 2020 in terms of returned mail and early votes from registered Republicans.
But Messina insisted that he also does see some bright spots for Harris — mainly, the large turnout of female voters.
“Women voters make up 55% of the early voters, and in the past 10 days, young voters in these battleground states are coming out in what looks to be, for early votes, historic numbers,” he said.
This could be good news for Harris because virtually all polls say that Democrats are performing much more strongly with female voters than Republicans. Harris’ campaign has also been keen on winning over women, in part, by highlighting abortion rights.
But the Trump campaign has privately leaned on data from Democratic expert Tom Bonier’s website indicating that female voter turnout is down by about 170,011 in Arizona, 46,732 in Georgia, 204,856 in Michigan, 154,459 in North Carolina, 126,112 in Nevada, 450,802 in Pennsylvania and 238,452 in Wisconsin, relative to this point in the 2020 cycle.
Moreover, urban voter turnout has slipped 385,285 in Arizona, 153,846 in Georgia, 321,523 in Michigan, 175,470 in North Carolina, 191,199 in Nevada, 381,519 in Pennsylvania and 100,733 in Wisconsin compared to this point in the 2020 cycle. Dems traditionally carry urban areas.
In the 2024 cycle, the Trump-Vance campaign and Republicans generally have made something of a concerted effort to urge their voters to show up early in a bid to snuff out the early-vote gap that vexed them four years ago.
Ultimately, most polls peg the presidential battle between Trump and Harris as a deadlock, and both sides believe that the race is going to be very close.
“When you have polls this close, you’re not really sure of anything,” former Obama adviser David Axelrod told CNN over the weekend. “And it really matters who shows up because these polls are not precise.
“This race is filled with uncertainty today.”
Axelrod also contended that Trump is “not closing well” and alluded to recent controversies that have popped up in the final days of the 2024 cycle, such as the GOP candidate’s joke Sunday that he wouldn’t “mind” if a sniper had to shoot through “through the fake news” to get to him and controversy over the Puerto Rico remark made at his Madison Square Garden rally.
“He is actually abetting her message in the final week, that’s going to make Republicans uncomfortable,” Axelrod said. “I’m sure [Republicans] would love him to stay tethered to that prompter a bit more and deliver the message that they think will help him win this election.
“But he’s not closing well. She’s closing in a much more disciplined way.”
“Republicans didn’t do what they did last time,” Messina continued. “Last time, Trump said don’t early vote so they didn’t. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020 and that’s scary.”
Still, Messina stressed that a silver lining for Democrats is the large turnout of female voters and other key groups.
