The outcomes of eleven critical races will determine which party controls the United States Senate in the next Congress, and Republicans are in a prime position to win a multi-seat majority.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them currently hold a 51-49 majority, meaning Republicans need to flip 2 seats while holding on to the ones they currently have to take a clear majority. The GOP has a realistic shot at nine Democrat seats, while only two red seats, Florida and Texas, are actually in play for Democrats.
Here are the eleven races to watch and the formula for a GOP majority.
Step One: Defend Florida and Texas.
The road to a GOP majority begins with defending the seats held by Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), strong incumbents who are working to stave off Democrat challengers.
Former United States Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) is challenging Scott in Florida, where Republicans have had strong early vote returns, while Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is squaring off with Cruz in the Lone Star State. Scott’s lead over Mucarsel-Powell in the RealClearPolling (RCP) average as of Monday was 4.6 percent, while Cruz had a 4-point lead over Allred.
Republicans will ensure they retain at least 49 seats if Cruz and Scott win these races, setting themselves up to take and build a majority through contests elsewhere.
Step 2: Win Blue Seats in Red States
The next set of key races to watch on election night are in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio–red states where Democrats currently hold Senate seats.
Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is widely expected to easily win outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) seat in West Virginia, which has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 2018. Manchin is not seeking another term, and Justice is facing Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliot (D).
In Montana, Republican businessman Tim Sheehy looks to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Tester was the last Democrat to win a statewide election in the red state six years ago, underscoring the arduous task before him. Sheehy’s lead in the RealClearPolling average of Monday is 6.5 percentage points, suggesting he is comfortably ahead of Tester.
The third red state where a Democrat is up for reelection is Ohio. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is facing off with Republican businessman Bernie Moreno in what could be one of the tightest races of the evening. Moreno has a 0.4 percentage point edge on Brown in the Real Clear polling average of Monday in the toss-up race.
If Republicans defend Florida and Texas and flip these seats red, they would take at least a 52-seat majority, with the opportunity to expand it through other close races in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.
Step 3: Flip Blue Seats in Swing States
The next layer of races to watch are those unfolding in five of the seven presidential swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylavnia, and Wisconsin.
Polling has been the tightest in the three Rust Belt States. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by just 1.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolling average.
The race in Pennsylvania is also close, as Republican businessman Dave McCormick is just 2.4 percent behind Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in the RCP average.
Michigan’s Senate race shows a tight contest between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). Slotkin has a 2.9 percent edge in the RCP average.
If Republicans sweep these Rust Belt states, which is possible, especially if former President Donald Trump wins these states by solid margins, the GOP could theoretically reach 55 seats, with Arizona and Nevada still in play.
Democrats have slightly more comfortable polling average leads in Arizona and Nevada than in the Rust Belt.
RCP’s average shows that in the Grand Canyon State, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has a 3.9 percent lead over Republican Kari Lake, while Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is 4.5 percentage points ahead of Ret. U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown (R).
While the polling average margins Democrats lead by are a bit larger than those seen in the Rust Belt, the states are certainly within reach for Lake and Brown, especially if Trump has a big night in the southwest and wins by significant margins that neutralize some ticket-splitting trends that polling indicates are at play.
One final contest to watch is Virginia’s United States Senate race, where Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is facing Ret. U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao (R). Kaine holds a double-digit lead in RCP’s average, but the decision Desk Headquarters/the Hill’s forecast model gives Cao an 11 percent chance of winning as of this writing.
A clean sweep of all races would give Republicans a 58-seat majority. While that is unlikely, the GOP has a prime chance to take a majority, and a strong one at that.
