Midseason is upon us and we’ve finally gotten past the NFL trade deadline. Let’s not waste any time and get into it for a different QB Room this week.
Rather than the typical format, we’ll get into some midseason awards and predictions for the second half of QB seasons (for fun) — but first, let’s contextualize what happened at the deadline, through the quarterbacks that ultimately are involved as an ancillary asset (and sometimes direct asset) considered in each move.
Starting with, three QB winners at the deadline:
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Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: The defense had played just well enough in recent weeks to suggest that the Lions could try to skate and get by with what they had left in the wake of the Aidan Hutchinson injury loss. But rather than sit pat — which would have been a mistake — the Lions locked in a trade that had been weeks of calls in the making, adding edge rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns. For the Lions, it’s a rental through mid-February (hopefully). But this is what good franchisees do: They take advantage of the Super Bowl window when it presents itself. Aside from the addition of another wideout to backstop the continued off-field frustrations tied to wideout Jameson Williams, this is the best addition the front office could have made for Goff. It’s not going to resolve every defensive issue up front, but it will certainly help. That’s a win.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are officially “all-in” on this being a Super Bowl-winning season. That’s what the additions of Carolina Panthers wideout Diontae Johnson and Los Angeles Rams cornerback Tre’Davious White mean. Not only are you giving Jackson another piece when the passing game has been solid, you’re preparing the secondary for the Patrick Mahomes/Kansas City Chiefs battle that seems inevitable at this stage. Both are quality pieces added to each side of the ball. I’m not sure Jackson could have asked for more than this at a deadline.
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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Since we’re talking about Jackson and the Ravens adding to both sides of the ball, we can’t get away from the Chiefs’ addition of New England Patriots edge rusher Josh Uche and Tennessee Titans wideout DeAndre Hopkins. This is the definition of buying low on both players. Mahomes will get some juice out of Hopkins down the stretch and most certainly in the postseason (which is really why he was acquired), and the defense and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will make it work with Uche in situational opportunities. This is what the deadline should be about — taking the shots that are available to you and treating a Super Bowl window like it’s something with a one-year shelf life …. even if you have Mahomes under center.
Now, three losers at the deadline:
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Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: Dealing away wideout Amari Cooper and edge Za’Darius Smith is a soft confirmation of what I believe to be true. And that is this: The Browns’ move away from Watson is starting right now. The departure of Cooper is a cap consideration with a player who wasn’t playing well with Watson, but the flipping of Smith to Detroit is laying the groundwork for what is coming. Right now, the Browns are collecting as many draft picks as possible to line the team with talent that can exist and contribute after Watson is gone. Most likely after the 2025 season … but maybe (!) before it. I fully expect that the Browns have some kind of play in mind next offseason that is going to make the future of Watson obvious. Every Browns fan would do well to pay very close attention to how the Browns move after mid-February. It’s going to telegraph where this franchise is heading.
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Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: I would be hard-pressed to find an NFL franchise that tried to add a player to its depth chart without more difficulty than the Steelers this season. San Francisco 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk nuked a deal that was in place in the offseason. After that, Davante Adams became a closed door with the Las Vegas Raiders. Eventually, it was clear the Los Angeles Rams were second-round-pick-or-bust on Cooper Kupp. And just when it seemed a Christian Kirk deal was on the rails with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kirk broke a collarbone and that was that. The result was settling on New York Jets wideout Mike Williams, who is 30 years old and hasn’t had a truly productive season since 2022. I’m not sure what else the Steelers could have done at this stage, but it’s definitely tough to get *that* far down the list of options and feel like you have to make a deal happen.
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Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: OK, so there is the severe hamstring injury, which is a really big deal. Maybe even a season-ending deal (yes, that is what I have heard, although it depends on the next four games). If Dallas is there, what next? The addition of Jonathan Mingo, a 2023 second-round pick, from the Carolina Panthers, doesn’t do much for the wide receiver room Prescott will come back to.
Now on to the the midseason awards …
QB MVP: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
When he cut his weight down below 215 pounds last offseason, I wondered whether he was overcorrecting in the face of past injuries or feeling a little less dynamic as a playmaker. Especially when he was coming off the second MVP season of his career in 2023. But Jackson knew exactly what he was doing: taking a vast expanse of veteran experience and intelligence, and marrying it with the lightning quick and slippery physique from his first few seasons in the NFL.
That, along with the important addition of Derrick Henry, has unlocked what appears to be an even higher plateau of football for Jackson. His passing EPA is the best in the NFL and his statistics are projecting toward being one of the most special quarterback seasons in the history of the league. He’s also head and shoulders above any other MVP candidates at this moment in time. The last mountaintop he has to conquer is carrying this level of success and precision into the playoffs and breaking through to a Super Bowl win.
Best rookie QB: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
This has been a very, very good rookie class of quarterbacks. But through nine weeks, Daniels has positioned himself to be one of the most transformative rookie quarterbacks since, well, C.J. Stroud flipped a switch for the Houston Texans last season. Daniels is doing it differently than Stroud did a season ago, utilizing his ability to run and create and energize an entire offense. But that’s not the only difference.
Daniels is working with a vastly less talented group of offensive players than Stroud was in 2023. Despite that, his efficiency is through the roof working with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Only Lamar Jackson ranks higher in passing EPA this season, and Daniels is continuing to produce with what seems to be some cracked ribs suffered in Week 7. Right now, he’s worthy of being in the top five of league MVP candidates, if not top two or three. I should have known what was coming back in training camp, when the New York Jets faced Daniels in joint practices in August, and a Jets executive was asked about how his team was coming along, but answered by first raving about how good Daniels looked for the Commanders. That doesn’t happen often.
Best single-game passing performance: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
This is an award that you can slice up a lot of different ways. For example, the 18-for-18 game that Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff put up in a win over the Seattle Seahawks was absolutely superb. You can also throw in the five-touchdown pass games of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow (who has two this season), as well as a few other scattered performances.
But it was Kirk Cousins’ entry into the “500 Club” that was about as stunning as anything we’ve seen in a while — partly because it was Cousins who pulled it off, and partly because we’ve only seen 22 quarterbacks accomplish the feat in the entire history of the NFL. The game we’re talking about, of course, was Cousins’ 509-yard, four-touchdown pass win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in October. It was the first 500-yard passing game we’d seen in nearly three years, and it included a thrilling game-tying field goal drive by Cousins and the Falcons offense in the final 74 seconds of regulation, then a game-winning 45-yard catch and run touchdown in overtime by wideout KhaDarel Hodge, who had stepped into the play as an injury replacement.
Biggest QB surprise: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
If Baker Mayfield hadn’t rejuvenated his career last season, he might be the guy here. But it’s hard to look at Darnold finally starring in his seventh season in the league — and on his fourth different team — and not see him as far and away the biggest quarterback surprise this season. Surely, the NFL’s best wideout, Justin Jefferson, and offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell have played a large part in Darnold’s blossoming. Not to mention his time with Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. But it would be wrong to not credit Darnold for shedding some of the bad habits that dogged him for so many years in previous stops.
His mechanics and focus in the pocket have vastly improved, not to mention his resiliency in the face of mistakes. One executive who crossed paths with Donald on a previous team remarked that it usually only took a bad couple of quarters or even handful of bad plays to cause an unraveling. That’s not the Darnold playing for the Vikings. And it’s going to afford him an opportunity to start somewhere in the league in 2025 on a solid starting contract … much like similar growth led Baker Mayfield to his opportunity in Tampa Bay.
Biggest QB disappointment: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
There were some people who thought Richardson was a solid dark-horse candidate for league MVP this season. Let that sink in for a moment. The guy couldn’t even prove that he could finish an NFL game as a rookie and people were gassing him up beyond belief coming into 2024. It just goes to show you how desperately people want to reach for the next Josh Allen. Admittedly, I fell into that trap, too, after Richardson began the season with a handful of highlight-reel passes in a season-opening loss to the Houston Texans. But very little about his game was good after that game, as a total inability to consistently make simple plays quickly took root. And that was before he incomprehensibly tapped himself out of a play in his last start before getting benched indefinitely for Joe Flacco.
The simple reality is that Richardson never should have started a single game or seen the field as a rookie in 2023. The Colts should have began their work by building him from the ground up, from mechanics to playbook to leadership expectations. Unfortunately, they drafted him with the fourth overall pick, effectively making it impossible to sit him for a season and reprogram him. Time will tell if he’s ruined. Perhaps he can come back from the benching like Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young and find some traction. But I think it’s more likely he’s traded this offseason while he can still draw some trade assets and the Colts go back to the quarterback drawing board.
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Caleb Williams has a roller-coaster finish to the season and struggles against a tough second-half schedule. The inconsistency will be met with the firing of the entire Chicago Bears coaching staff, and a search for an offensive-minded head coach will begin.
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Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will fight their way into a wild-card playoff seed and Burrow will lead the NFL in touchdown passes and finish the season in a runoff with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for league MVP.
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Despite playing arguably the easiest schedule in the league down the stretch, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield will lead the NFL in interceptions … but also throw 40 touchdown passes for the first time in his career.
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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will return to his perch amongst the league’s best young quarterbacks … and also hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season, on the road in Arrowhead on Dec. 8.
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The Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South and have their playoff seeding locked up by the last game of the season, allowing rookie Michael Penix to get his one and only start of the season under his belt in the Week 18 finale against the Carolina Panthers.
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Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis will return to the starting lineup and struggle with inconsistency the remainder of the season, leading Tennessee to pursue another starter in the offseason.
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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will crank up the offense in the second half of the season, but ultimately lose to Lamar Jackson in the AFC title game, ending the Chiefs’ pursuit of a third straight Lombardi Trophy.
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Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will find an offensive groove down the stretch, propelling them to the NFC title game … where they will lose to the Detroit Lions.
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Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will defeat the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff in Super Bowl LIX, with Jackson winning the game’s MVP award.
