MIAMI – Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify and is expected to be near major hurricane strength when the late-season tropical system makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.
Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are now keeping their eyes on the hurricane as it slams Cuba with damaging, hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves along the coast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is forecast, Rafael is expected to briefly weaken while spinning across western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or higher) as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.
The late-season hurricane has been lashing portions of the western Caribbean on its journey toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Cayman Islands through Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys into Wednesday night.
Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, especially across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and into western Cuba.
The NHC said rainfall totals of 4-7 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 10 inches in the higher terrain. That is leading to concerns of flash flooding and mudslides.
In the lower and middle Florida Keys, rainfall totals of 1-3 inches is expected.
Forecasters are also concerned about the potential for a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands, and 8-12 feet in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
A storm surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for Dry Tortugas and 1-2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is more than 100 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 mph.
Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The official forecast calls for Rafael to intensify with winds of 110 mph, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as for Dry Tortugas. The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are also included in the Tropical Storm Warning.
What’s the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?
According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwest for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, the NHC said Rafael is expected to move over western Cuba later Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.
From there, computer forecast models are in disagreement as to where exactly Rafael is headed next.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”
