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Andre Snellings, ESPNNov 6, 2024, 12:38 PM ET
James Harden was the NBA MVP back in the 2017-18 season. In basketball terms, that was a lifetime ago. Harden has not made an All-NBA team since 2019-20 season and has not been an All-Star since the 2021-22 season.
But you look up, a week into November, and the 35-year-old Harden is credibly flirting with averaging a triple-double, to the tune of averaging 21.1 points, 9.9 assists and 8.7 rebounds, with 2.6 3s, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks thrown in to boot. The rebounding and blocked shots would represent significant career-best marks for the Beard.
Can he sustain it?
And that question isn’t just for Harden, but for the Clippers team as a whole. With Kawhi Leonard sidelined indefinitely due to knee issues, the Clippers have built their starting lineup around veteran role players who are all, simultaneously, producing at career-best levels. Norman Powell, in his 10th NBA season, is at 24.9 points per game despite having never averaging even 20 PPG for a full season. Ivica Zubac, in his ninth season, is at 17.4 PPG and 13.0 RPG, both representing 150% of his previous career bests.
Can they sustain it?
And what happens when Leonard is ready to return?
Let’s explore.
Can Harden, Powell and Zubac maintain their hot starts?
My first impression of these Clippers is that, yes, they could sustain their current roles as long as they are asked to do so. Because they are a team of veterans, and all are playing roles they’ve done well in their careers, just to a larger scale. The Clippers are starting Zubac as the only true big man, with 6-foot-5, 210-pound Derrick Jones Jr. as an undersized 3-and-D power forward, 6-foot-5, 215-pound Terance Mann as an undersized 3-and-D wing, 6-foot-3 Powell as the primary shooter-scorer of the unit and the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Harden as both the point guard and also the burliest member of the lineup outside of Zubac.
Zubac is asked to score at high efficiency near the rim on shots largely created by Harden and to vacuum the glass. These are things he has always done, and in fact he’s done them at a similar, if not higher rate, for stretches in his career. For example, for the two seasons between 2018-19 and 2019-20, Zubac averaged 17.1 points and 13.8 rebounds per 36 minutes over 131 games. This season, he is at 18.1 points and 13.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.
The difference this season is that he’s maintaining that per-minute rate for 34.7 minutes per game instead of the 18.1 MPG he averaged in that previous two-season stretch. But Zubac is 27 years old, in the peak of his NBA prime, and he averaged 27.5 MPG in his past two seasons. This is a step up in responsibility and minutes played, but it is a reasonable step for him to take given where he is in his career.
Similar story with Powell, who averaged 20.9 PP36 on 14.9 FGA36 while playing 28.8 MPG over 302 games in the five seasons before this one. Powell is getting more shot opportunities per minute (19.2 FGA36) and playing more minutes (33.1 MPG), but these step-ups are reasonable given his experience level and career-placement within his prime years.
Harden’s offensive volume is actually right in line with where he’s been for the last few seasons. From 2021-22 to 2023-24, Harden averaged 19.7 PPG, 9.7 APG and 2.5 3PG. Almost carbon copies to his per-game averages this season. The biggest leaps for Harden have been in rebounds and blocked shots, but keep in mind he’s the second-biggest player on the court in the Clippers’ starting lineup. While he’s playing point guard on offense, Harden is effectively the power forward on defense. While his rebound and blocked shot numbers could regress slightly over time, it wouldn’t be surprising for those numbers to stay elevated for as long as he maintains this role.
What happens when Kawhi returns?
When will Leonard come back and disrupt the apple cart? And how do the established roles change once Leonard is back?
The most recent reports on Leonard say that he is out indefinitely and will miss “multiple weeks” but is expected to play “this season”. That is an incredibly broad window, and Leonard’s injury and availability history makes it hard to narrow down the prognosis much more than that. Leonard played 68 games last season, his most since the 2016-17 campaign.
He sat out the 2021-22 season in its entirety with a torn ACL, and missed 73 games In 2017-18 with a different knee injury. All told, Leonard averaged 42.6 games played per season from 2017-18 through last season. Suppose we use that as a rough benchmark for this season’s expectations for Leonard, that he play in about 43 games.
When Leonard plays, one of the current starters would have to come off the bench. Based on team roles, the player that could do so most seamlessly would be Powell. Leonard would step into his role as the primary scorer and top offensive option, and Powell would then move back to the instant offense off the bench/half-finisher role that he has often played in his career.
If that is the change, then both Harden’s and Zubac’s production should stay relatively similar. Leonard’s return could eat slightly into Zubac’s scoring opportunities, and with Leonard bringing more size to the four it could eat into Harden’s rebounding by a tick. But Leonard has averaged 17.8 FGA in 33.6 MPG in his four seasons with the Clippers, and Powell is currently at 17.7 FGA in 33.1 MPG. That swap would be relatively seamless.
A futures betting angle to consider
For Powell, this would move him back to the sixth man role he has specialized in. In his last two seasons with the Clippers, he averaged 15.3 PPG in 26.2 MPG off the bench and has finished fourth in the Sixth Man of the Year vote in each of those two seasons. The requirement to win the award is to come off the bench for more games than you start.
In the scenario where Leonard plays about 43 games, Powell would meet the requirements but would also have close to half-a-season averaging near 25 PPG. This could bump his season average up near 20 PPG even if he comes off the bench, which could look very good for voters.
Per ESPN BET, Powell is a long shot at +8000 for Sixth Man of the Year. If the scenario plays out in this way, though, I would argue Powell would be one of the favorites, making him a sneaky value futures pick with very high achievable upside.
