Can Ryan Blaney go back-to-back in back-to-back seasons?
A year ago, Blaney won the penultimate race of the season at Martinsville to qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series title race. There, he finished ahead of the other three drivers he was racing for the championship to score his first career Cup Series championship.
Last Sunday, perhaps lost amidst all the controversy behind him, Blaney won again at Martinsville. And much like last season, he needed to get that victory to make the title race. Without it, he’d be racing for little more than pride and a race win on Sunday.
Blaney’s recent achievement helps make him the favorite heading into Sunday’s final Cup Series race of the season. Not only is he the favorite to win the Cup Series title, he’s also the favorite to win the race, something he didn’t do a season ago.
Here’s a look at how the four title finalists have fared at Phoenix ahead of the race along with a brief look below at the contenders in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series.
Ryan Blaney (+175 to win Cup Series title)
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8 top fives, 12 top 10s in 17 starts
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Average finish: 10.9
Blaney became the first driver to win the Cup Series title without winning the title race since the format was implemented in 2014 when Ross Chastain won the race and Blaney finished second.
Only Denny Hamlin has a better average finish at Phoenix than Blaney does among active drivers and his run of finishes in the fall race at Phoenix since he was 34th is the envy of the Cup Series. In the five races since, Blaney has finished third, sixth, fourth, second and second in November at Phoenix.
William Byron (+275)
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1 win, 2 top fives, 7 top 10s in 13 starts
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Average finish: 11.8
Byron has also been very good at Phoenix, but not nearly as good as Blaney has been. He led 95 laps and was fourth a season ago after starting on the pole and winning the spring race. It’s Byron’s second straight appearance in the championship four; he was third behind Blaney and Kyle Larson last season.
Joey Logano (+325)
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3 wins, 8 top fives, 16 top 10s in 31 starts
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Average finish: 13.5
You can look at Logano’s even-year streak in one of two ways. Maybe he should have lower odds since he’s now in the title race for the sixth time in 11 seasons and has never raced for the title in an odd-numbered year. Or maybe his odds should be higher because he hasn’t won the title in a presidential election year. Logano’s Cup Series titles came in 2018 and 2022, putting him right on track for a win during the midterm election year of 2026.
Two years ago, Logano started from the pole and led 187 laps on the way to the win. In 2020, he started second and finished third.
Tyler Reddick (+325)
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2 top fives, 3 top 10s in nine starts
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Average finish: 17.9
Reddick needs to put in the performance of his career at Phoenix to win the title. Reddick’s best finishes are a pair of thirds in 2022 and 2023, but both of those came in the spring race. He was 22nd in the season finale in 2023 and was 23rd in the season finale in 2022. Reddick has been the third-best qualifier in the Cup Series this season; he’ll need a great starting spot.
Xfinity Series
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Austin Hill
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AJ Allmendinger
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Cole Custer
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Justin Allgaier
It’s hard to argue that this isn’t the best possible group of drivers to race for the Xfinity Series title (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CW). They combined for nine wins over 32 races and hovered up top 10s. Only Chandler Smith has a legitimate case to feel he’s been wrongfully denied a title shot.
If we’re picking a favorite, we’ll go with Custer, who is the defending Xfinity Series champion and has the best average finish (7.6) of any active driver at Phoenix.
Truck Series
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Grant Enfinger
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Christian Eckes
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Ty Majeski
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Corey Heim
Let’s avoid the nonsense that plagued last season’s Truck Series title race, shall we? The 2023 title race was a disaster after Heim intentionally crashed Carson Hocevar in retaliation in the final scheduled laps of the race. The race then went nearly 30 laps longer than scheduled because of even more crashes.
Heim was leading among title contenders when he was taken out by Hocevar last season. We think he’s the favorite Friday night (8 p.m. ET, FS1), though Enfinger is the sentimental choice. He looked well on his way to his first Truck Series title before Heim crashed Hocevar.
