Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 10 Fantasy Football

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 10 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

We’ll get a matchup between two of the most surprising-record teams in the league in this game. They’re also a pair of offenses that I didn’t expect to be some of the more enjoyable watches through nine weeks of the season and yet, that’s exactly what Washington and Pittsburgh have brought on tape.

The Commanders, in particular, have taken me by surprise. I was mixed on the Kliff Kingsbury hire at the start and was downright dissatisfied with what we saw in the first couple of games because it looked like what we saw from his listless Arizona offenses.

Needless to say, I owe Kingsbury an apology.

It was around Week 3 that Kingsbury started to adjust the attack and lean into the best parts of Jayden Daniels’ and Terry McLaurin’s respective games. The horizontal raid is done; this is an offense that’s based on attacking downfield and playing with tempo.

Jayden Daniels leads the NFL in dropbacks with no-huddle by a large margin with 180. He has excellent efficiency marks with a 7.44 adj. net yards per attempt and the fourth-best passer rating among quarterbacks on these plays. Overall, he isn’t in the top half of starting quarterbacks in deep throw rate but has the fourth-best passer rating when he throws 20-plus yards down the field, per PFF. They aren’t just chucking it to chuck it; Washington attacks down the field purposefully, when they get the right looks.

Pittsburgh has a great defense overall but expect to see some of those looks in Week 10. The Steelers play single-high on 68% of their snaps, per Fantasy Points Data, and that’s when Washington likes to rip it deep. Terry McLaurin has the sixth-most yards against single high with a beefy 17.8 average depth of target.

On Pittsburgh’s side of things, the acquisition of Mike Williams has further cemented the identity of the offense with Russell Wilson under center. This is going to be a run-heavy offense that takes shots off play-action on sideline routes. That’s the specialty of George Pickens and Williams has been playing that style of ball for years.

That does make the offense volatile overall but it’s an exciting approach to watch. Wilson is not a complete quarterback but can still push the ball vertically and force teams to respect all three levels. Taking those shots off play action creates space for the running game. Expect to see that run game as the focus of the attack in Week 10.

Najee Harris was producing like an elite running back before going on bye last week. From Weeks 6 to 8, Harris ranked third in the NFL with 322 rushing yards at 5.96 yards a pop. He trailed only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in rushing yards. Harris can keep that momentum going against a Washington defense that is improving against the pass but is still a bottom-six rushing success rate defense over the last month.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers get an ultra-generous Bucs defense off their bye. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in dropback EPA allowed since Week 5, and we know this is one of the worst pass defenses in the game. However, the run defense is ceding tons of production too over the last three games. That’s both due to the personnel and Tampa Bay so often in trailing scripts with opponents throwing all over it early in games.

Derrick Henry (16-169), Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allgeier (25-96) and Kareem Hunt (27-106) have put up big production against Tampa Bay in the last three weeks.

The 49ers are set to get Christian McCaffrey back for this game. That’s obviously a significant boost to the entire ecosystem but it’s worth wondering how much McCaffrey will carry the load in the run game in his first game back.

The 49ers got great play from Jordan Mason to start the season and his powerful style is the exact type of complement that would work well alongside McCaffrey to take some grinder carries off his plate. However, Mason was dealing with injuries prior to the bye, so Isaac Guerendo could get the nod as the RB2. The rookie is more of an explosive slasher and not the rugged runner Mason is at his best.

The best outcome for the 49ers would be for Mason and McCaffrey to work in tandem as a timeshare to get the best rushers in the mix and keep the veteran superstar fresh. If those two guys are active, they’re both fantasy starters against this defense.

In the passing game, we’re also looking at a questionable split in the work. The wide receiver room could have all three of Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall ready to roll. Samuel is one of the premier zone-beaters in the game and will be in a position to shred the most zone-heavy defense. Whoever runs more routes between Jennings and Pearsall will also be in an eruption spot. Based on previous usage, Pearsall and Jennings both offer slot versatility.

On the other side, the Buccaneers season is starting to spiral at 4-5 after a strong start, but it’s tough to blame the offense. It’s particularly difficult to assign much fault to offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who is among the most impressive play-callers and designers this year.

The Bucs offense was built around Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and used motion and varied alignments to get those two superstar wide receivers into favorable spots. The unit we’ve seen the last two weeks without them has looked quite different but has still been effective.

Wide receivers have fallen well out of the offense’s focal point, with Sterling Shepard leading that group with 68 yards the last two weeks. Instead, Coen has used tight end Cade Otton to replace Godwin as the power slot. Otton has 17 catches in this span, which leads the team and is third overall league-wide. This shift has turned Otton into a clear top-five tight end in fantasy until we see any change in his usage.

If he keeps this up, Coen will be among the hottest head coaching candidates this offseason. His current team may have to wonder if they can allow him to walk out the door this offseason, given how well Coen and Baker Mayfield have operated in tandem.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

The Lions have not been challenged of late and the offense has been comfortable just leaning on opponents with the run game all the way to wins. Everyone on this offense is playing well, but the fantasy numbers haven’t been at a level that allows the passing game players to beat ADPs. That’s best expressed in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s yardage totals, even if he’s been the best pick of the bunch thanks to touchdowns.

When the Lions have to open it up, this ecosystem is still a pristine passing environment. We know they can have explosive outings.

St. Brown, particularly, is in a good spot this week. The Texans play such tight perimeter coverage and bring heat off the edge with their pass rush. Jared Goff will need to get the ball out quickly and pick on the interior of the defense. Sounds like St. Brown’s calling card. He could find even more space with field-stretcher Jameson Williams back off two-game suspensions. Williams’ role will be interesting to track but he’s a boom/bust projection on a weekly basis, and especially in this matchup.

The question is whether Houston’s offense can provide enough pushback to get Detroit to open it up.

At this point, it doesn’t sound like Nico Collins will be activated for this game. That’s a huge deal. When Collins was active, he led the Texans in targets when C.J. Stroud was under pressure and averaged over 16 air yards per target. Collins was the answer against the rush and Stroud found him for vertical shots. The connection between those two players was far and away the best part of the aerial attack.

We saw on Thursday night last week that losing Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury was the final blow to the passing game. Tank Dell is starting to look a bit better on film as we get deeper into the season but the rest of the receivers just do not separate. That is a deadly combination with an offensive line that’s wholly lost against blitzes and stunts. Pressure will continue to be a theme in this offense and so far, Bobby Slowik hasn’t found answers.

Joe Mixon has been a consistent factor in the run game for Houston when he’s healthy. He draws a matchup this week with a Lions unit that ranks No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed since Week 5. The Texans will need a better passing game product than what we saw last week but given the state of their protection and the play of the non-Dell pass catchers, that’s tough to envision.

STREAM

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams

Most important Dolphins storyline: We can keep this simple for the Dolphins: are we ever going to see a big game from the wide receivers? Jaylen Waddle’s struggles have been noticed but Tyreek Hill hasn’t had many massive moments this year. He’s hovered just around 80 yards in the two games since Tua Tagovailoa has returned from injury. The Rams’ secondary is a beatable unit. Inconsistent players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Nijgba have busted statistical slumps and posted season-best numbers against this group. 49ers’ reserve option Jauan Jennings still has one of the best wide receiver games of the season against L.A. The Dolphins will need to survive a pass rush that’s heating up of late, with rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske leading the charge. But if they can get the time, Hill has to be activated downfield, at a bare minimum.

Most important Rams storyline: The return of both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (who didn’t play the second half last week) hasn’t just brought those two back to the radar. Veteran Demarcus Robinson has gone off in each of the last two weeks. Robinson leads the team with a 28.4% air yards share and has scored four touchdowns on 12 targets. He leads the wideouts with a 0.63 EPA per target. His looks have been extremely valuable. Robinson is the X-receiver for L.A. and when you have credible threats as the motion players, he gets more efficient coverage looks. All these guys back in the mix make the whole unit more dangerous.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Most important Bills storyline: If the Bills don’t have Keon Coleman (who’s already been ruled out) or Amari Cooper for Week 10, expect Khalil Shakir to see his role expanded. Shakir is an excellent receiver who has thrived in his role this season. However, he averages just 2.73 air yards per target. That is far and away the shortest among relevant players at the position. I’m of the opinion that he can do much more than that; Shakir has the route-running chops to win against man coverage and can separate in the intermediate area. However, either the Bills coaching staff disagrees with me or thinks he’s too valuable as a layup YAC option to send too far downfield. If one or both of those top outside receivers don’t play this week and we still see a limited role for Shakir, then we might have an answer.

Most important Colts storyline: What do we do with Josh Downs after an offensive shift in Week 9? Next Gen Stats notes that the Colts used 12 personnel on 46.9% of their offensive snaps in Week 9 against the Vikings and had the quarterback under center for 34.7%. This was not just a change from this year; it was their highest rate in a game with Shane Steichen as the head coach. Josh Downs played just 2 of 23 possible snaps (8.7%) in 12 personnel in Week 9. I don’t know why the offense took a sharp left turn but nothing can make sense of a team taking their best pass-catcher off the field this often, especially when considering his performance relative to teammates. To prove that point, despite the limited routes, Downs accounted for 41.2% of Indy’s first-read targets, his highest rate of the season.

Downs has to be maximized in this game. The Bills play zone coverage and two-high at top-five rates. Downs leads the team with 0.4 targets per route run vs. two-high and 2.26 yards per route run, and 0.36 targets per route run vs zone, 2.36 yards per route run vs zone.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Most important Broncos storyline: Bo Nix is now tied for the league lead with 41 deep throws this season. It has not always been effective football but he’s taking his shots. The receiver room continues to be a rotation but Courtland Sutton has a dominant hold on the top spot. He’s run a route on 84.3% of the dropbacks in the last two weeks. No one else sits higher than 49.4%. Sutton has a massive 29.6% target share, while no one else is higher than 15.5%. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is No. 2 on the team in both categories, a shift from the previous two weeks. Nix will need Sutton to deliver in a tough matchup against a tough Chiefs perimeter defensive back group. He’s clearly the top threat on the team.

Most important Chiefs storyline: Week 9 brought us the varied role we wanted from DeAndre Hopkins in Kansas City.

Hopkins played a mix of X-receiver and slot, moving around to different alignments. He didn’t run many deep routes and was instead a consistent target over the middle of the field against zone coverage. It was a perfect matchup for a player with this type of usage against a zone-heavy Bucs defense prone to coverage mistakes. The Denver defense is a different beast. They’re on the other end of the man coverage spectrum with multiple strong cornerback options. Week 9 was an obvious layup line for Hopkins in this role. Week 10’s result will actually be more instructive of the player he will be in this offense for the rest of the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Most important Vikings storyline: T.J. Hockenson, at long last, returned to the NFL in Week 9. The star tight end is coming back from a torn ACL that he suffered late last year, which is why it took so long for him to get back in action. He was not fully unleashed but we got some good usage data. He participated in 63% of the Vikings’ routes and earned 12% of the targets. TE2 Josh Oliver played a good bit as well but Hockenson immediately ran 25 routes and operated as the third receiving option ahead of WR3 Jalen Nailor. Hockenson ended his day with three catches for 27 yards and some strong usage data. This matchup against a generous defense could be his official breakout in his return to football.

Most important Jaguars storyline: Ian Rapport of the NFL Network reported Thursday morning that Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play with a shoulder injury this week. Based on the wording of the report, this could be a longer absence for the Jaguars starting quarterback. Needless to say, regardless of your overall Lawrence take, this is a big issue for Jacksonville, which already wasn’t perfectly healthy on offense. Mac Jones has at least started a large number of games in the NFL and offered some above-average moments. Things eventually fell apart for him in New England and I don’t have much faith in this ecosystem to prop him up to his 2021 form. Jones’ play under center makes an already more volatile receiver than he’s credited for in Brian Thomas Jr. an even shakier proposition.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Most important Eagles storyline: The Eagles are becoming a tricky team to discuss on a weekly basis because they aren’t that complicated. They have better players than you, and they relentlessly get the ball to those players. In a matchup with an utterly beatable Cowboys defense, those stars should shine. I can’t imagine this bottom-five Cowboys run defense slowing down Saquon Barkley. Even if DeVonta Smith, who missed practice this week with a hamstring injury, is out or limited, how is this mistake-riddled secondary going to hang with A.J. Brown? On the other side, young players are stepping up at every level of the Eagles defense and will draw a matchup with a broken and hobbled Dallas offense.

Most important Cowboys storyline: Dallas will start Cooper Rush in this game and likely much longer with Dak Prescott a candidate for IR. Rush has played well as the Cowboys starter before but this ecosystem is in much worse condition than many of the past. That should lead us to some skepticism of Rush keeping the ship afloat. There are also some within the organization who may want a look at Trey Lance with his rookie contract set to expire at the end of the season.

We saw Rico Dowdle get good usage last week, if that matters. Dowdle saw a season-high 73% of the snaps in Week 9 and handled 77% of the team’s carries. He was also used often in the two-minute offense instead of Hunter Luepke, which has not always been the case this year. Dowdle will need to own all of the backfield work if he’s to survive as a fantasy back in a Dak-less Cowboys offense.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Most important Jets storyline: The second half of last week’s Jets’ win was a substantial departure from how the rest of the season has gone for their offense. Not that they did much differently on offense, although their motion rate is up overall under Todd Downing; the offense was just … better. We can attribute that almost solely to the wide receiver play in Week 9.

The Jets’ performance against Houston was a reminder of what a “line up and play” type of offense can look like when the top two wideouts are cooking. Garrett Wilson was dominating his one-on-one looks, while Davante Adams was cooking off the line of scrimmage with his release package. When these two guys are operating in tandem and Aaron Rodgers is protected, this offense can roll. The Cardinals present a different schematic look because they lead the NFL in Cover 6 and play a ton of funky three-safety looks but generally bring much less pressure than Houston. A duplicate performance will require the type of timing and precision Rodgers demands from the pass attack.

Most important Cardinals storyline: Rookie running back Trey Benson played 28% of the snaps in the Cardinals’ resounding victory over the Bears last week. It was the most he’s played since Week 2. The 21-year-old rookie has been on a slow developmental curve this season and hasn’t challenged for actual touches often. This could have been a breakthrough moment for him, especially since James Conner was dealing with an injury. Emari Demercado plays a role in this backfield, too, if Conner is to miss any time. He’s been a trusted asset on passing downs. Benson was explosive with his touches in Week 9 when working to the perimeter on runs. If he has to get any more time in Week 10, those skills will be critical with a matchup against the Jets on the docket. New York has taken its lumps defending runs to the outside this season.

SKIP

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

One reason to maybe watch: Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks practiced for the first time all season this week and the team just handed out an extension to incumbent starter Chuba Hubbard. Dave Canales has insisted that his team would be built on a solid rushing attack and everything he’s done has backed up the words with actions.

Hubbard beyond deserves this extension, given how he’s played this year. He’s been the only consistently effective part of the Panthers offense and perhaps the entire team. Brooks is clearly going to be eased in slowly if he even plays at all. Hubbard has 133 carries on the year and no one else has more than 36. There’s a lot of room in this rotation for a second body but that’s the position the rookie will hold behind Hubbard for the foreseeable future.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

One reason to maybe watch: The Bears have come out completely flat following their Week 7 bye. They’ve scored 24 points total against the Commanders and Cardinals the last two weeks. Both Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus are once again under intense criticism, eyebrows are being raised at D.J. Moore’s recent on-field play and the offensive line allowed 16 different Cardinals players to get pressure last week, per Next Gen Stats. What looked like a promising season just three weeks ago turned nightmarish quickly. This matchup against New England, even if they’ve shown more life under Drake Maye, should be an ideal rebound spot. If it’s not, things will get painfully uncomfortable in Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

One reason to maybe watch: Darnell Mooney may have to take on a more significant role in this game if Drake London sits or is hobbled. These two guys work off each other so well from a route concepts standpoint, and Mooney has already been a considerable producer this season. The Falcons wideout is the WR12 on the year in fantasy. Back in Chicago, Mooney’s most productive season came in Matt Nagy’s offense running a heavy diet of short routes underneath to stretch the field horizontally with his speed.

In Atlanta, he’s been used as a vertical receiver to create space for guys like London and be the shot-play target for Kirk Cousins on nine, out and corner routes. This role suits his skills much better and has been a big boost for the ceiling of this attack.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

One reason to maybe watch: Since returning from their Week 5 bye, the Chargers rank second in neutral pass rate, trailing only the notoriously pass-first Bengals. This could not be more different than the offensive approach most assumed the Greg Roman/Jim Harbaugh brain trust would take with the Chargers. I, for one, am shocked that two professional coaches would not run their offense with Justin Herbert at quarterback as they did with Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith. As long as this type of play-calling keeps up, Ladd McConkey remains a viable weekly receiver and guys like Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston have a chance to hit ceilings, even if they are volatile players.