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Gabriele Marcotti, Senior Writer, ESPN FCNov 8, 2024, 11:22 AM ET
It’s time for a logical and decisive step to rebalance — and, to some degree, future-proof — Real Madrid. What does that mean? With news that they’re already considering big moves in the winter transfer window, it’s time to go big in the pursuit of Joshua Kimmich in January.
Kimmich, who turns 30 in February, is in the final year of his contract with Bayern Munich. A month ago, all the reporting suggested he was having “positive talks” over an extension to his contract that runs through June 2025. Maybe he is, but until he signs, the reality of the situation is that he is heading to free agency. The fact he has yet to put pen to paper on a deal that, you’d assume, would be comparable to his current one — he’s already among the club’s highest-paid players, with wages in excess of $20 million a season — suggests he’s open to hearing other offers, even if only to gain leverage in a negotiation.
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That’s the reality Bayern and Kimmich face. The clocks tick, the screws turn, and Real Madrid would be foolish not to try to exploit this. For it to work, it would have to come down to numbers. Two of them: the contract Real Madrid offers Kimmich, in both duration and salary, and the fee they would need to agree with Bayern.
Both obviously are subject to negotiation, but neither seems beyond reach. Let’s break it down.
Why it makes sense for Kimmich to join Real Madrid
This is Kimmich’s 10th season with Bayern, and he has won eight league titles, four German Cups and the Champions League. If he ever wants a new experience while still at the peak of his powers, the time is now. Real Madrid would give him another massive stage; he’d experience a different environment with different teammates, which is likely to help him grow further. And if he wants to win another Champions League? Well, the odds at Madrid are pretty good.
Why it makes sense for Bayern to let him leave
The obvious point is if you think you’re at serious risk of losing Kimmich as a free agent, at least you can get something for him now. It won’t be his full market value because he’ll be six months from leaving for free, but it will be something, and you’ll be getting his wages off the books for six months. Between the savings on wages for half a season and the fee you’d be getting, that could be anywhere between €30-50m — maybe more — which is a lot more than, well, zero.
Yes, you want to be competitive this season and you’ll need to replace him. Do you trust Aleksandar Pavlovic, who is expected back from injury in December, to take over Kimmich’s role alongside one of João Palhinha and/or Konrad Laimer? Would you need to go back and search for a Kimmich alternative straight away, and how much it would cost?
Big questions, I know.
Obviously it would mean Bayern are worse off this season, but would it preclude a Bundesliga title and a run in Europe? I don’t think so. And how much is that worth to you, and to the medium-term well-being of the side? My hunch is, especially with a new manager (Vincent Kompany) in charge this season and Jamal Musiala growing in stature, moving on wouldn’t be the end of the world. Or, at least, it’s a contingency for which the club have planned, whether now or in the summer.
It’s not just Kimmich whose deal is up at the end of the season. Goalkeepers Manuel Neuer and Sven Ulreich, forwards Thomas Muller and Leroy Sané, and defenders Eric Dier and Alphonso Davies are out of contract in June too. Some might stay on “team-friendly” deals, and it’s true that only Neuer and Davies are starters, but that’s a lot of churn in the squad. The extra financial resources will come in handy when it comes time to reload.
Why Kimmich makes sense for Real Madrid
This won’t solve all their problems, let’s be clear. There will still be wobbles at the back. Up front, Vinícius Jr. and Kylian Mbappé will still need to figure out how to play together, while the absence of pressing and off-the-ball work from those two will still place an extra onus on the rest of the side.
But you will be adding somebody who is a legitimate, tried-and-tested, creative passer in midfield. Maybe not like Toni Kroos was last season, but potentially not that far off. And there’s simply nobody like that right now in the team, at least among the cohort of players aged 38 and under. (Yeah, Luka Modric is still great at 39, but he obviously can’t play regular minutes.)
Thomas Tuchel might not have been a fan, but Kimmich brings order in possession. That matters because when opponents sit deep, Vini and Mbappé don’t have space in which to work, and their movement and patterns of play aren’t quite there yet. Because they rarely press and generate turnovers in the final third, you won’t be creating chances that way either. And so you rely on set pieces or moments of individual skill, which is hardly a game plan. With Kimmich, you’d have somebody who can unlock opposing defences and who generally plays on the front foot.
Beyond that, Kimmich’s versatility would also open up a whole range of options. In certain situations, you could try dropping Aurélien Tchouaméni (when he’s back from injury) into the back three if that’s what you want to do. Or Kimmich himself: he’s done it in the past. And, of course, he can play right-back too, and with Dani Carvajal out for the season, you need an alternative to Lucas Vázquez in that role. (The nice bonus here is that signing Kimmich wouldn’t preclude you chasing another free-agent-to-be at right back, such as Trent Alexander-Arnold, since Kimmich prefers playing in midfield.)
Sure, he won’t come cheap, but Real Madrid became the first club to pass the billion Euro revenue mark last year, while staying profitable, and they expect to do so again this year. They’ll want to invest in a defender this summer, but beyond that, if you get Kimmich, the squad is settled and there won’t be any glaring priorities transfer-wise. (Put differently, if you don’t get Kimmich now, you’d still need to find a creative Kroos/Modric type in the summer, and if you have to acquire him for a fee, it will cost you a darn sight more than whatever you’ll pay now for Kimmich.)
There’s more. You’d be getting a guy who already worked with your current manager (Carlo Ancelotti) and played alongside your potential future manager (Xabi Alonso). And you’d be getting a natural leader, captain of Germany, a guy who is already battle-tested on a high-pressure big stage such as Bayern, which makes him more adaptable to the Bernabeu than most.
We’ve heard rumblings of this scenario for a while, but previously it felt like contract negotiation histrionics from the Kimmich camp. Defeats in the Clásico and the Champions League, however, have brought this issue into focus for Real Madrid. And in just over 50 days, should he so choose, Kimmich can sign for any club in the world as a free agent before next season.
Bayern and Real Madrid are clubs who, for all their success, have minded the bottom line, recording a profit for most of the past few decades. This would be a business decision as much as a sporting one, but if they can reach the right number — and if Kimmich is on board — it could help everyone involved.
