Midweek MACtion rolls forward Tuesday night with a loaded three-game slate.
In this article, I’ll give my thoughts on all three games and provide some betting picks.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo odds
(7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | +14.5 (-110) | +450 | Over 51.5 (-110) |
| Toledo | -14.5 (-110) | -600 | Under 51.5 (-110) |
I haven’t been impressed by Toledo.
The Rockets are 3-2 in MAC play, with their three wins coming by an average of six points. They rank 92nd nationally in net Success Rate despite playing the 127th-ranked strength of schedule. They also don’t profile as a solid favorite to back with the 130th-ranked rushing offense by EPA per Play.
Central Michigan bottomed out after losing its top two quarterbacks, but it found a spark with freshman Jadyn Glasser last week. He completed 5-of-7 passes for 57 yards (8.1 YPA) against an excellent Bowling Green defense.
More importantly, the Chippewas rank 20th in EPA per Rush and will operate like a service academy offense, feeding Marion Lukes carries to keep the clock moving and limit possessions.
Hopefully, Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason will give the Chippewas a short field at some point in the game. He’s due for some negative turnover regression with 14 turnover-worthy plays to just seven interceptions.
Central Michigan’s season is on the line, as the Chips must win out to reach bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, we could see Toledo come out flat off the bye week with a real uphill climb to reach the MAC title game.
I’ll back the ugly underdog in this spot. Fire up Chips!
Pick: Central Michigan +14.5 (-110, bet365)
Ball State vs. Buffalo odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | +4 (-110) | +155 | Over 54.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo | -4 (-110) | -185 | Under 54.5 (-110) |
(7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza has had an up-and-down season, and the Cardinals are much better at running the rock, ranking 45th nationally in EPA per Rush.
Unfortunately, that’s a tricky proposition against a top-40 Buffalo run defense. The Cardinals will likely find themselves in many obvious passing situations against a defense that ranks top-20 in coverage.
Meanwhile, the Ball State defense has been an eyesore all season, ranking dead last nationally in early downs EPA per Play allowed and 128th in points per drive allowed. Per Pro Football Focus, the Cardinals are the nation’s 115th-best tackling team and 125th-best coverage unit.
Buffalo doesn’t boast an elite offense, but quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has 13 big-time throws over his last three games and could provide some explosives in this game through the air.
Pete Lembo has led Buffalo to success in his second run as a MAC head coach, and he’ll look to exact revenge over his former team on Tuesday.
With extended rest off a bye week, I lean towards Buffalo emerging victorious.
Pick: Lean Buffalo -4 (-110, bet365)
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green odds
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | +8 (-110) | +265 | Over 58.5 (-110) |
| Bowling Green | -8 (-110) | -330 | Under 58.5 (-110) |
Bowling Green and Western Michigan are both 4-1 in MAC play, so Tuesday’s game has significant conference championship implications.
The Falcons took care of business last week with a 23-13 win over Central Michigan, while the Broncos dropped a home game against Northern Illinois with a final score of 42-28.
I have Western Michigan circled as a team that I want to fade down the stretch, especially with a defense that ranks 128th nationally in EPA per Play allowed and 131st in Success Rate allowed.
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Bowling Green should have its way offensively, and its team total is a sky-high 34.5 for the game.
If your sportsbook offers player props, overs for Bowling Green’s offensive skill players should be in play, especially running back Terrion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
The potential Mackey Award winner is Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded tight end and has averaged nearly 115 receiving yards per game this season.
Pick: Lean Bowling Green -8 (-110, bet365) | Player Prop Overs for Terrion Stewart and Harold Fannin Jr.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
