Caleb Williams’ regression sealed fate of ousted OC Shane Waldron; what’s next for Bears?

It was a snapshot of a relationship that was open to interpretation. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldon seemed to flash a smile as he sat on the bench Sunday next to quarterback Caleb Williams, whose look of frustration reflected the Chicago Bears’ offensive woes in the 19-3 loss to the New England Patriots.

Whether the glimpse of conflicting emotions meant the two weren’t on the same page became a moot point Tuesday when the Bears fired Waldron, who was in his first year on the job.

Waldron replaced Luke Getsy — who coincidentally was fired from the same position with the Las Vegas Raiders last week — and his primary role was to maximize Williams’ talent the way he did with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, who was named Comeback Player of the Year in 2022.

But Waldron could only get sporadic moments of excellence from Williams, the No. 1 pick in April, who seemed to be regressing in recent weeks. That responsibility is now passed on to Thomas Brown, who was promoted from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator.

Like Waldron, Brown was one of nine candidates the Bears interviewed for their offensive coordinator opening in January. Brown’s experience in the same role for the Carolina Panthers in 2023, during the rookie season of 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young, was intriguing, according to coach Matt Eberflus.

The Bears chose Waldron over Kliff Kingsbury, whose job at USC as a senior offensive analyst was to get Williams ready for the NFL, and Zac Robinson, who has built the Atlanta Falcons’ offense into a top-five passing unit and the league’s 12th-ranked rushing attack.

Kingsbury became the Washington Commanders’ offensive coordinator and is helping guide rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, drafted one spot after Williams and the current favorite to become Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The Bears also passed over three other candidates who went on to snag offensive coordinator jobs this past cycle: Liam Coen with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose offense is ranked eighth, Klint Kubiak with the New Orleans Saints, who have the 16th-ranked offense, and Greg Roman, offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers (22nd).

Waldron was Eberflus’ top choice “because of his ability to communicate and his ability to make things clear and concise.” On Monday, Eberflus promised to make changes to spark one of the NFL’s least efficient offenses, highlighting the biggest problem area as “in-game communication.”

Following a 1-2 start, Chicago’s offensive leadership, which includes Williams, tight end Cole Kmet, wide receiver DJ Moore and tight end Marcedes Lewis — all of whom are captains — went to Waldron and asked to be coached harder.

“Don’t feel like you can’t coach us,” veteran tight end Lewis said in September. “I want to be coached. I want to be great.”

Eberflus is now on his third offensive coordinator since he was hired by Chicago in 2022. Amid a three-game losing streak and back-to-back O-coordinator hires that have backfired — Getsy and Waldron — Eberflus finds himself on the hot seat as the Bears enter the toughest stretch of their season with the most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.

Chicago begins a stretch of six division games in eight weeks when the Green Bay Packers (6-3, 1-1) come to Soldier Field in Week 11. The Bears have lost 10 straight to their NFC North rivals.

In taking over playcalling duties, Brown inherits an offense in disarray. Over their three-game losing streak with losses to Washington, Arizona and New England, the Bears are the only team in the NFL that does not have a passing touchdown. In that same stretch, Chicago ranks last in points per game (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (2).

During that losing streak, Williams ranks near the bottom in nearly all major passing stats for QBs that have made at least two starts. He’s 32nd in completion percentage (50.5), yards per attempt (4.9) and sacks (18), and he’s tied for 31st in passing touchdowns (0) and 30th in Total QBR (21.2).

Williams has plenty to fix, including throwing with timing and anticipation. Williams has been off target on 13% of his throws, which ranks 33rd among qualified quarterbacks.

Holding on to the ball too long also remains a problem. Through nine games, Williams has 36 dropbacks where he held on to the ball for five or more seconds, which is the most in the NFL. He has been under pressure on an NFL-high 33 of those dropbacks (92%) and 15 of them have resulted in sacks.

That’s a trend that has continued from Williams’ days at USC, where he had 44 such dropbacks (second-most in FBS) in 2023, one season after winning the Heisman Trophy.

On Monday afternoon, Eberflus met with Williams to gauge how the rookie was handling the latest loss, in which he was sacked a career-high nine times.

“I just want to take the temperature of him, where he’s at, where his confidence level is, which is high,” Eberflus said Monday. “… We’re 4-5 and we’ve lost three in a row, and again, it’s about getting us on the right track.”

That includes finding ways to take advantage of Chicago’s offensive talent. Kmet has an 85.3% catch percentage and has three catches for 27 yards since the Bears’ last win, when he caught two touchdowns in a 35-16 rout of Jacksonville. Brown must find ways to spark underutilized talent like receivers Moore and Keenan Allen along with running back D’Andre Swift, who is two games removed from a four-week stretch when he scored a touchdown each game.

“Thomas is a bright offensive mind who has experience calling plays with a collaborative mindset,” Eberflus said in a statement. “I look forward to his leadership over our offensive coaching staff and his plan for our players.”