The college basketball non-conference season is in full swing, and Friday’s slate is stacked with high-profile matchups.
Here are two of my favorite plays for Friday’s slate:
Alabama at Purdue
With Zach Edey in the NBA, Purdue will lean into a more Braden Smith ball-screen-centric offense.
I expect the Boilermakers to score plenty in the pick-and-roll, given Mark Sears headlines an underwhelming ’Bama ball-screen coverage unit.
In three games against UNC Asheville, Arkansas State and McNeese State, the Tide have allowed .82 pick-and-roll points per possession (34th percentile) — Purdue will be a considerable step up in competition.
On the other end of the court, Purdue’s rim defense likely regresses without Edey.
After allowing 28 paint points per game last season (77th percentile), the Boilermakers have allowed 38 ppg to Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Northern Kentucky and Yale. Alabama will be a considerable step up in competition.
Alabama is a rim-and-3-oriented offense, and the Tide should obliterate the rim behind the jumbo-sized versatile front court of 6-foot-11 Grant Nelson and 6-11 Clifford Omoruyi.
That should drag Purdue’s defense toward the paint, where Sears can go thermonuclear from deep (he’s shooting 43% from 3 since the start of last season).
I’m also concerned about Purdue’s transition defense, which has allowed 1.05 PPP (38th percentile) to three mid-major opponents.
Alabama is among the more up-tempo, transition-reliant offenses in college hoops and will exploit any vulnerability.
I’m banking on a high-scoring barn burner.
Recommendation: Over 164 (-110, ESPN BET).
Ohio State at Texas A&M
Returning production always plays a large role in the early season.
In November and December, teams with more roster continuity, chemistry and cohesion will outperform teams with less.
Texas A&M has more returning production than any power conference squad, bringing back 72% of last year’s minutes, including four starters and superstar point guard Wade Taylor IV.
Nobody has transferred out of Buzz Williams program in two straight offseasons.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is starting four transfers around returning bully-ball point guard Bruce Thornton. I think it’ll take some time for Jake Diebler to assemble the pieces.
In their respective season openers, Ohio State beat Texas, and Texas A&M lost to UCF, but those were two fluky results.
The Buckeyes needed a 14-for-28 (50%) 3-point shooting night to pull off their upset win, while the Aggies blew a double-digit lead with six minutes left.
Thus, I think Texas A&M is a tad undervalued, and Ohio State is a bit overvalued.
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From an on-the-court schematic perspective, I’m worried about Ohio State’s frontcourt rebounding corps.
The Buckeyes have allowed 29 offensive rebounds through their first two games (223rd nationally in defensive rebounding rate), which doesn’t bode well against the Aggies, arguably the nation’s best offensive rebounding squad.
Additionally, I’m still unsure if the Buckeyes have enough spacing to keep lanes open for Thornton ball-screen sets.
The Aggies play a switch-everything compact defense while mixing in zone looks, generally forcing opponents to beat them over the top.
Yes, Ohio State is shooting nearly 50% from 3 in the young season, but that’s bound to regress and likely not indicative of the true shooting talent on the squad.
Recommendation: Texas A&M -4 (-115, Bet365).
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
