A quarterback change can shake things. In the case of Pitt, it’s spelling the end of its dream season.
But for UAB, it’s given the Blazers a shot in the arm and made them a fun watch, at least if you’re an Over bettor.
Clemson at Pittsburgh
Last week, Clemson took its show on the road and put the Virginia Tech offense in a box. Neither Kyron Drones nor Collin Schlee could connect on anything downfield.
In the end, Hokies quarterbacks finished 16-for-37 for 188 yards with a pair of interceptions. Given Pitt’s questions at quarterback Saturday, I foresee a similar outcome.
Eli Holstein remains a game-time decision for Pat Narduzzi due to a head injury. If Pitt is forced to turn to backup Nate Yarnell, Clemson’s defense will swarm.
The statuesque quarterback was forced into action last week against Virginia and the Wahoos pressured him into two interceptions.
Virginia registered pressures on seven of Yarnell’s 17 dropbacks, often without bringing more than four rushers. That bodes well for the Tigers’ defense, which ranks eighth in defensive Havoc.
When Clemson has the ball, I’m bullish on a breakout performance from Cade Klubnik and his receiving corps.
Garrett Riley has unlocked Klubnik’s potential this season, essentially flipping his big-time throw/turnover-worthy throw ratio year-over-year.
Instead of settling for check-down throws, Klubnik is pushing the ball downfield and doing it successfully. His PFF passing grade has jumped up from 74.4 on intermediate throws to 91.4 this season.
He has witnessed an even larger jump (66.2 to 91.8) on throws of 20+ yards downfield.
This is how you beat the Pitt defense, testing it deep.
The Panthers have surrendered 35 throws of 20+ yards this season, placing them 110th nationally in terms of aerial explosives allowed.
Backing Dabo Swinney in ACC play has been a profitable endeavor since he took over in 2009.
The Tigers have covered 59% of their conference games under Swinney, which is the second-best ATS conference win rate among Power Four programs (behind K-State).
I see no reason to sit this one out, especially given Pitt’s offensive dropoff should Yarnell get the start at Acrisure Stadium.
Recommendation: Clemson -11.5.
UAB at Memphis
This game has the potential to blow past this total. Let’s start with the fact that both teams are extremely comfortable playing in high-scoring games.
Memphis’ AAC games have averaged 68 total points.
And that’s taking into account a stinker from USF in Bryce Archie’s first start when Memphis won, 21-3. In the Tigers’ other five AAC games, an average of 77 points have been scored.
And then we get to UAB, which has either lit up scoreboards or been lit up themselves over the course of the season.
Dating back to mid-September, UAB has either scored or allowed 35 points in all but one game.
The Blazers have also raised their ceiling by handing the keys of the offense to Jalen Kitna.
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He’s been bombing away as a starter (42 attempts per game), and he’s challenging teams downfield.
Jacob Zeno, the incumbent starter, was a check-down merchant who had one of the lowest aDOTs (average depth of target) in college football.
Kitna’s aDOT is north of nine in his past two starts, and he gives UAB a chance to break this game wide open with the vertical passing game.
When Memphis has the ball, Mario Anderson will thrive against a horrific UAB run defense (123rd in success rate).
Super Mario has eight touchdowns in his last four games, and he’ll flirt with three against a defense that allows more than 230 yards per game on the ground.
Recommendation: Over 62.5.
