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ESPN
Jan 15, 2026, 02:38 PM ET
The Australian Open kicks off on Sunday, with defending champions Madison Keys and Jannik Sinner both in the draw. But can either repeat? Sinner is a lot more likely to — but will have No. 1-ranked Carlos Alcaraz to contend with as they continue their epic rivalry.
And on the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Amanda Anisimova are the top four players in the world right now, with Sabalenka a two-time champion in Melbourne already.
We polled our experts for their picks — and best betting tips.
Who do you think will win the women’s singles title, and why?
Jake Michaels: Sabalenka’s unbeaten run at the Australian Open came to a dramatic end in last year’s final, but there’s still no doubt she remains the greatest hard-court player on the women’s tour. The 27-year-old world No. 1 has played in the final of the past six hard-court majors, winning four of them. Sabalenka arrives in Melbourne in a rich vein of form, having just taken out the Brisbane International without dropping a set. At this point, it would be a shock if she wasn’t raising the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup in two weeks’ time.
Jarryd Barca: It might be the safe pick, but Sabalenka deserves clear favoritism. The world No. 1 is chasing redemption after last year’s heartbreak in Melbourne, and her physical power gives her a genuine edge over most of the field. She carries expectation, but she has proved she can handle the pressure on the biggest stages before. That said, Elena Rybakina is definitely a danger. She’s striking the ball really well, recently had a 13-match winning streak before her quarterfinal exit in Brisbane, and beat Sabalenka twice in 2025. She’s a former finalist in Melbourne, too, and is definitely equipped enough to go deep again.
Bill Connelly: It’s really difficult to pick against Sabalenka. She has won 20 of her past 21 Australian Open matches, she has begun 2026 in torrid form — she beat Keys, Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk without dropping a set (or even getting to 5-all in a set) in Brisbane — and the next highest-seeded player in her quarter is Jasmine Paolini, against whom she has won 10 straight sets. She still might have to survive Gauff in the semis (she’s only 6-6 all time versus the American), and whoever emerges from a loaded bottom quarter of the draw, be it Rybakina, Swiatek, Naomi Osaka or someone else, will be supremely battle-tested. But this is Sabalenka’s to lose.
D’Arcy Maine: Clearly Sabalenka is the favorite here, and for good reason, but Gauff should certainly be in this conversation. Also entering the tournament riding some momentum, Gauff finished 2025 with the title in Wuhan and recorded an impressive 6-4, 6-2 victory over Swiatek in the semifinals at the United Cup. While no one has an easy path in Melbourne to the final — and Marketa Vondrousova (third round), Muchova or Emma Navarro (fourth round), and Mirra Andreeva or Elina Svitolina (quarters) could be tricky — Gauff still has a more favorable draw than others and will likely set up a clash with Sabalenka in the semis.
Gauff has proved — on multiple occasions — she can beat Sabalenka while the stakes are highest and this could be no exception. Gauff thrives in the underdog role. Making her first Australian Open final, and even claiming the title, feels well within reach.
Who do you think will win the men’s singles title, and why?
Michaels: To this point of his career, the Australian Open hasn’t brought out the devastating, ruthless best of Alcaraz. Not only is the tournament the only major the Spaniard has yet to win, it’s one he has — somewhat incredibly — never advanced past the quarterfinal stage at. Last season on tour was Alcaraz’s most impressive, winning 71 matches, including titles at Roland Garros and Flushing Meadows. He’s primed for Melbourne Park and hunting the career Grand Slam. You’d be brave to bet against him!
Barca: I can’t wait for the moment Alcaraz finally completes the career Grand Slam, and it absolutely could happen this year, but I still have too much faith in Sinner on hard courts. The Italian continues to hit new heights almost every time he steps onto the court — his speed, baseline power, composure and mental toughness still unrivaled. It’s easy to see why the world No. 2 is chasing a threepeat in Melbourne, and after the way he closed out his 2025 season, which included beating Alcaraz to claim a second straight ATP Finals title in Turin, it’s difficult to see anyone stopping him.
Connelly: Last we saw either Alcaraz or Sinner playing in a real match, Sinner was topping Alcaraz, 7-6, 7-5, indoors in Turin. In the past 12 months, Sinner is 49-2 against players not named Alcaraz (and one of those losses was a third-set retirement), while Alcaraz is 52-3 against non-Sinners over the past nine months. They have distanced themselves so thoroughly from the rest of the field that it’s almost impossible to envision someone else winning a Slam in the near future. The edges in the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry have shifted back and forth a few times, but Sinner has won two of the past three (completed) matches in the series, so I’m going to lean ever so slightly in the Italian’s direction.
Maine: My initial reaction here was to flip a coin between Alcaraz and Sinner. Of course, no other man has won a major title since 2023 and they’ve played each other in the previous three Slam finals, and we all get it. They are clearly the best two players in the world and the men to beat.
But even during the height of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic‘s dominance, others did occasionally break through. So, in part just to keep it interesting here, why not Daniil Medvedev? After a dismal 2025 season, he looked resurgent in Brisbane last week and got a much-needed confidence boost with the title. If he could potentially escape Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round and Alexander Zverev in the quarters, he would set up a clash with Alcaraz in the semis. Sure, Alcaraz is, well, Alcaraz, but this is his first tournament without longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. Medvedev is also a three-time finalist in Melbourne. If Medvedev could win that one, maybe he could rediscover the same magic that helped him beat Sinner in the 2024 Wimbledon quarterfinals. Why not, right?
Which player outside of the top 10 could surprise in the next two weeks?
Michaels: Okay, he’s only just outside the ATP’s top 10, and he’s hardly an unknown name in tennis circles, but why can’t Medvedev rediscover his best this fortnight? After a woeful 2025 season, in which he won just one match at Grand Slam level, Medvedev began the new year brightly by taking out the Brisbane International. He’s a three-time finalist at Melbourne Park, appears rejuvenated under his new coaching team, and, as always seems to be the case in Australia, will fly dangerously under the radar.
Barca: To even consider looking past Sinner and Alcaraz you need to look at players with genuine weapons, maturity and belief — those that can really pounce if a favorite slips. Medvedev fits that mold perfectly. He has made three finals in Melbourne for a reason, has already won a title in 2026, and he has a reasonable 7-8 record against two-time defending champion Sinner. He has the tools to do it, so long as he brings the right temperament. Keep an eye on Jiri Lehecka, too. The world No. 19 picked up three top-10 wins in 2025, and it took Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic to stop him in three of last year’s Grand Slams.
Connelly: Medvedev is a clear threat, especially since he landed in Zverev’s quarter, the exact place you want to land for a solid run. Learner Tien is in that quarter, as well, and he’s 3-2 all time against Medvedev and Zverev (and beat Medvedev in Melbourne last year). They’re both worth watching.
On the women’s side, the tour is so deep that any number of players in the double digits could make a run. But I’m looking primarily at two names. No. 17 Victoria Mboko enters the Australian Open on another hot streak, having rebounded from a post-breakthrough funk (she battled injury and lost five of seven after winning the WTA 1000 summer event in Montreal) and reestablished great form. She’s one of the few players who can match Sabalenka’s power, and the two could end up playing in the fourth round. Meanwhile, No. 19 Karolina Muchova landed in Gauff’s quarter, and while she has had almost no success against the American, she’s a three-time semifinalist in hard-court Slams, and she beat the otherwise torrid Rybakina in Brisbane. Anytime she’s healthy and in rhythm, she’s a threat.
Maine: There are so many women who could surprise, and with the depth of the tour, it’s almost certain someone ranked outside of the top 10 — and likely well outside of the top 10 — will do just that. But, as silly as it sounds in some ways, it feels worth mentioning that two-time Australian Open champion Naomi Osaka is here. The No. 16 seed ended the 2025 major season with a semifinal appearance at the US Open — her best result since coming back from maternity leave at the start of 2024 — and seems to have gotten her confidence and hard-court swagger back. She could potentially face Swiatek in the fourth round and if that is anything like their iconic match at the 2024 French Open, we would all be in for a treat — and perhaps a different result this time around.
Betting tips
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Who is your women’s pick to win?
Pamela Maldonado: Aryna Sabalenka (+185). Yes, she’s the favorite. Yes, it’s boring but yes, it also makes the most sense. Her draw minimizes early pressure, her serve creates free points in Melbourne conditions and her hold rate separates her from the field. Sabalenka can avoid long rallies, which preserves energy across a full tournament schedule. When the surface rewards serve-plus-one tennis and the bracket avoids elite returners early, the shortest price can still be the right one.
Andre Snellings: Any American Player (+250). If I were picking a single player to win I would pick Sabalenka, but DraftKings gives us this very interesting hedge bet. There was an American woman in all four Grand Slam finals last year, including 2025 Australian Open winner Madison Keys. Keys, No. 3 seed and 2025 French Open champion Coco Gauff, two-time 2025 major finalist Amanda Anisimova and 2025 US Open semifinalist Jessica Pegula are all among the top 11 favorites to win on DraftKings. Gauff and Anisimova are each favored to win their quarters and reach the semifinals, and both Anisimova and Keys have big hitting styles that are conducive to the fast courts of Melbourne Park.
Who is your men’s pick to win?
Maldonado: Jannik Sinner (-120). Gross. I wanted to pick Carlos Alcaraz at +185, but Sinner is the one I keep coming back to. He’s 22-4 here with two titles because he doesn’t bleed energy early. Short point, clean serving patterns and no emotional detours. Alcaraz can outplay him on a given day, but over seven matches, Sinner breaks less. This price accounts for surviving the fortnight, which is why the market stopped debating talent and priced inevitability in Melbourne.
Snellings: Jannik Sinner (-120). Sinner’s record on hard court over the past two seasons looks like a misprint: 92-6, including three championships and a finals appearance in the four hard-court Grand Slams. He and top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz have turned the Grand Slams into their own private one-on-one tournament, having won the past eight majors in a row with four wins apiece. While Alcaraz won the 2025 US Open, Sinner is the better and more consistent of the two on the surface. And the courts at Melbourne Park play faster than at the US Open, which plays further into Sinner’s strengths and makes him nearly unbeatable on the surface.
What is another bet that stands out on the women’s side?
Maldonado: Back to the futures market, Amanda Anisimova (+900) caught my eye. This is a surface and draw play. Her flat ball takes time away, which matters in Melbourne when conditions speed up. The quarter is volatile, the top seeds there leak and Anisimova’s ceiling in clean hitting matches is Slam-winning high. You’re betting on variance for you. At this number, you need timing and one hot week.
Snellings: Naomi Osaka to reach the semifinals (+700). Osaka was once the best hard-court player in the world, winning four of the six hard-court Grand Slams (between the 2018 US Open and the 2021 Australian Open) before stepping away from the tour for mental health reasons and to have a baby. Osaka made huge strides in her comeback last season, making the final of the WTA 1000 level Canadian Open before reaching the semifinal at the US Open. According to DraftKings, Iga Swiatek (+140) is favored to come out of this quarter, but if Osaka is playing at her level, she still has the big-hitting game that can defeat any player on this surface.
What is another bet that stands out on the men’s side?
Maldonado: Daniil Medvedev to win the second quarter (+200). Betting is about looking for mispriced items, and I consider this one of those. He’s off to a hot start in 2026: 5-0, winning Brisbane, while also leading Alexander Zverev head to head 14-8 (they could meet in the quarterfinal). This quarter is about who can absorb pressure over five sets. Medvedev’s return profile, elasticity, and willingness to extend rallies forces opponents to hit extra balls. Zverev’s serve keeps him alive but once matches drag, his return doesn’t apply enough stress, making him vulnerable with his draw path. Over a section built on attrition, Meddy survives more often. At plus-money, that’s the bet.
Snellings: Alex De Minaur to reach the semifinals (+900). De Minaur is the Australian top seed, carrying the hope of the home country in this tournament, and has been loudly knocking on the door to make his first Grand Slam semifinal for the past two years. De Minaur has made the quarterfinal in five of the past seven Grand Slams, including the 2025 Australian Open. He is in the quarter with No. 1 overall seed Carlos Alcaraz, but this is Alcaraz’s least successful major tournament. In fact, Alcaraz has never made the semifinal at the Australian Open himself. While De Minaur has a tough draw, this could be the tournament where he finally breaks through and wins one of those major quarterfinal appearances.
Who is your favorite long shot bet to win the women’s title?
Maldonado: Not much of a long shot in terms of odds, but Mirra Andreeva (+1600) stands out. She has early ball control and return depth — huge strengths. Her section is unstable at the top leaving a cracked door. Because she doesn’t rely on serving hatred or streaky winners, she can excel by taking time away, which travels over two weeks. Plus, she’s unusually mentally steady for a younger player: no panic when matches get tight.
Snellings: Victoria Mboko (+3500) burst onto the scene last year at age 18, highlighted by a win at the WTA 1000 level Canadian Open in which she defeated Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka along the way. Mboko was voted the 2025 WTA Newcomer of the Year and is off to a hot start this year with an upset victory over 2025 Australian Open champion Madison Keys in the Adelaide International quarterfinals. Mboko’s game is built on power with a big serve and forehand that can play well on the Melbourne hard courts, and she supplements that power with excellent movement around the court. She may not have much experience, but she has the game of a future Grand Slam champion … and the future could be now.
Who is your favorite long shot bet to win the men’s title?
Maldonado: This is a true long shot, so don’t come for me: Hubert Hurkacz (+100000). I just laughed at that myself. He has the serve dominance and short point control. That’s his entire profile. Literally. His quarter is loaded with names, but not killers — and that’s a difference. Over five sets, his serve holds value when form dips and that keeps variance on his side. Is he the best player? No. Can his game survive seven matches with minimal leakage? If his serve is on fire, yes.
Snellings: Novak Djokovic (+1600). It’s amazing that we’ve so quickly reached the point where Djokovic is a long shot to win the Australian Open. Djokovic is the most dominant player in Australian Open history, having won 10 of the 14 times he has played the tournament, including four of the past six. Djokovic reached the semifinal of all four Grand Slam tournaments last year, and has made the semifinal at Melbourne Park each of the past two years. Where age has slowed him has been in durability, with several of those semifinal exits (including both in Australia) coming amidst rumor of injury or illness. If Djokovic can stay healthy and fit for the full two weeks, he still has the game to beat anyone — including Sinner and Alcaraz — at the Australian Open.
