We’re down to the final four.
The calendar has turned, and the NFL playoffs have nearly reached their dazzling conclusion as we look to crown an NFC and an AFC champion.
The Broncos are in a tough spot, according to oddsmakers, with the Patriots opening as 5.5-point road favorites, a line that has held steady at most sportsbooks as of Monday.
Although bet365 sportsbook is hanging Patriots -4.5, a full point lower than most books, the number five is generally considered insignificant when betting against the spread.
Meanwhile, the Rams can be had as field goal underdogs on BetMGM to the Seahawks, who hold the ever important home-field advantage in Seattle.
Below, we target some of the early betting lines for Conference Championship weekend and find the value spots where we hope to snag positive closing line value.
Last week, we snagged 49ers +7.5, Bears +4, and Patriots -2.5; the last two won, and each reflected positive line movement by the weekend.
Conference Championship early predictions
Rams +3 (-120, BetMGM) at Seahawks
Of course we’d prefer to get a +3.5 hook, but I don’t think that’s coming anytime this week. The Rams opened at +1.5 on Sunday and have been bet up 1.5 points by sharp bettors taking advantage of the highly liquid NFL betting market.
I suspect the buyback to come rather quickly as BetMGM was the only book I could find that was hanging Rams +3.
Regardless, the Rams have given the Seahawks all they could handle this season, winning 21-19 in November, then falling short by one point in Seattle in a 38-37 overtime loss a month later.
That’s tough to stomach for the Rams and they are not playing their best football right now.
Still, these two teams are very evenly matched with each game finishing within a field goal.
All things considered we’re targeting the Rams +3 and if there is some line movement, these games have been so close that it could prove valuable by game time Sunday.
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Broncos +5.5 (-110, BetRivers) vs. Patriots
I was hoping this line would move to Patriots -6, but that doesn’t look likely either. The Broncos won’t have their starting quarterback Bo Nix, who is out with a broken ankle, and backup Jarrett Stidham represents a significant downgrade in quarterback play.
It will be a significant undertaking for the Broncos’ coaching staff to get Stidham ready to play the biggest game (hopefully, for them, two games) of his career, but Sean Payton is a guy we can trust to get them there.
Denver’s lookahead line had this game at near pick ’em status, so while I agree that Stidham is a significant downgrade for an offense that I already view as below average, I think that five points is where the line needs to be drawn as an overreaction to the injury.
The Broncos’ defense is elite and Payton will look to make this one ugly, with field position as the key component.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
