Sports bettors know all too well about regression.
No matter how hot a team is, the betting market will often catch up. And we have a prime example of that on Monday Night Football with the Denver Broncos hosting the Cleveland Browns as 6-point favorites.
That is the largest that Denver has been favored all season. In fact, the Broncos have not been this big of a favorite since Week 2 of the 2022 season – a stretch of 44 games.
But the Broncos are one of the league’s biggest surprises with a 7-5 mark that has them in the playoff picture. That is a far cry from what oddsmakers anticipated.
Denver entered the year with a win total of 5.5, which was barely above the league-low 4.5 for the weak Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots.
With those unexpected wins have come point spread covers. Denver is tied with the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers for the NFL’s best mark at 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Keep in mind the point spread is designed to have a 50/50 outcome so teams should not outperform the market at this rate.
Browns vs. Broncos odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | +6 (-110) | +220 | Over 42 (-110) |
| Broncos | -6 (-110) | -275 | Under 42 (-110) |
Browns vs. Broncos predictions
However, every season usually has an extreme outlier or two. For example, last year, the Lions went 12-5 ATS. In fact, over the past decade, each season’s top performer has posted a cover percentage of about 70%.
This exercise is tough because of pushes, a small sample size and the regular season expanding from 16 to 17 games.
But the overarching gist is that all teams don’t finish the season 9-8 or 8-9 ATS. There will be teams that cover 11 to 13 games.
So, this brings us to tonight’s game.
Are the Broncos going to finish the year as one of those special teams or are we about to see regression? Is this point spread of 6 a sign that the betting market is catching up to them?
Specifically, is now the time to fade them? After all, we all want to buy the dip or sell the rip.
I do not think we are there yet, although there is a slight tax.
I actually like the Broncos as a regular play. The main reason is that their rookie quarterback is evolving with a steep learning curve. So while the stubborn betting market is slowly adjusting Denver’s preseason perception and applying a tax, I do not think it is adjusting at the same rate that Bo Nix is improving.
Meanwhile, Denver’s opponent is also a little trickier to assess. The Browns were a dumpster fire with Deshaun Watson at quarterback but have shown flashes with Jameis Winston. However, those are merely spurts.
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The 3-8 Browns are coming off their version of a Super Bowl win, defeating the rival Steelers at home in primetime with Watson doing snow angels.
I do not expect a similar level of execution and focus in Denver. The Broncos are more polished and ironically, I think we are selling the rip on Cleveland.
PICK: Broncos -6 (-115, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
