We are witnessing a new era in the NFL.
Sure, the vestiges of the past are still around — 40-year old quarterbacks Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers both played this season — but the two teams in the AFC Championship are essentially new blood.
The Patriots and Broncos have made the playoffs once each since 2020 and now one of them will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Oddsmakers have the road team favored in this game and with good reason. The Broncos will start backup Jarrett Stidham in the championship game because starting quarterback Bo Nix is out for the season with an ankle injury. That flipped the hypothetical betting line between these two teams from Broncos -1.5 to Patriots -4.5.
Patriots vs. Broncos odds, prediction
The Broncos secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to a relentless defense. They led the NFL in sacks with 68, 11 more sacks than the next team and put tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But their pass defense shut down offenses, too. They allowed 187.2 passing yards per game, seventh-fewest in the league, and ranked third in passes defended.
That unit will have its hands full trying to stop one of the faces of this new era of the NFL, Drake Maye. The second-year quarterback has made an amazing leap this season, leading the league in QBR, and completion percentage while tossing 31 touchdowns.
Maye also took 47 sacks during the regular season — fourth-most in the league — and he’s been dropped 10 times in the playoffs. That will be the matchup to watch in this game, especially with the cold temperatures and potential for snow in the forecast. Maye’s ability to escape the pocket and run should be enough to prevent him from being in too much danger.
Ultimately I think the Patriots have the edge here. They’ve been awesome on the road with an 8-0 record away from Gillette Stadium, including a 7-1 record against the spread. In those games, the Pats covered the spread by an average of 8.3 points per game. They’ve also had two tough tests leading into this game to give their young quarterback experience in big situations.
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On the other side of this game, the Broncos have a quarterback with no experience in these types of games. Stidham’s teammates have been praising his preparation in practice, but at some point the Patriots defense will force Stidham to make the plays to beat them. That’s what usually makes the difference in these high level games.
I’m going with the Patriots to cover here and make their return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2018.
The Pick: Patriots -4 (-105, theScore)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
