Let’s not beat around the bush: The Lakers aren’t NBA title contenders.
At least, not yet.
And don’t kid yourself either, because you already knew they weren’t, despite having flashes of being the type of team that could play deeper into the NBA calendar.
Yes, the Lakers — with a 27–17 record after Saturday’s road win over the Dallas Mavericks for their third victory in four games — are jumbled up with a few other Western Conference teams in the standings, and aren’t too far behind the No. 2 spot.
Yes, they’ve had significant injury misfortune: LeBron James sidelined for training camp, the preseason, and the first 14 regular-season games due to sciatica; and Austin Reaves playing just two games since mid-December because of calf injuries.
Because of their misfortunes in player availability, the Lakers have had their three best players in Reaves, James and Luka Dončić for the same game just eight times out of the 44 they’ve played so far.
Speaking of Dončić, the Lakers also have an MVP-quality player, which is historically necessary for championship contenders.
And yet, as of right now, they aren’t contenders.
Not like the Thunder. Or the Nuggets. Or the Spurs. Or the Eastern Conference team of your choice, since that conference does have to be represented in the NBA Finals.
The Lakers’ defense? Not good enough, ranking No. 25 across the league — which is an improvement on that end of the floor after they picked up their play over the last week.
Their offense? Very good, ranking No. 9, but not great like it needs to be to compensate for their poor perimeter defense, and far from the heights expected of them with Dončić, James and Reaves on the roster.
The roster? Not balanced enough with players consistently effective on both ends of the floor, or that complement one another.
Their effort and execution? Not consistent enough, which is why 15 of their 17 losses have been by double digits, and they have a negative point differential on the season, which can often be a better indicator of the quality of a team instead of their record.
Do you know what true contenders are? Consistent.
The Lakers are still figuring out who they are on a nightly basis.
“For the group as a whole, the effort and execution piece is probably the biggest two things,” Lakers Coach JJ Redick said Saturday. “I’ve used the word ‘consistency’ a lot. We’re just looking for that. Because again, we’ve shown that we can execute on both ends. And we’ve shown that we can have effort on both ends. It’s just a matter of consistency.”
The good news for the Lakers is that despite their obvious flaws, many of which were evident before they even played their first game, they’re closer to being contenders than it often feels.
Here’s what needs to happen to help them go from pretenders to contenders:
First, when Reaves makes his return to the floor, which appears to be imminent and could be during the Grammy road trip, do NOT go back to the starting lineup of Dončić, Reaves, James, Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton.
Although it only played a small sample of minutes (85), that unit was responsible for the team’s slow starts to games from mid-November through mid-December. It performed poorly on both ends of the floor, leading to a minus-19.9 net rating.
The Lakers’ current starting lineup, with Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia in place of Reaves and Hachimura, hasn’t been great (minus-1.6 net rating), but it’s been good enough because it has balance. And the players are slotted into roles they’re better suited for defensively. When fully healthy, Smart, who’s been the team’s best defender this season, should start in place of Hachimura, who can still be valuable in a reserve role.
It’s a shame the Dončić-Reaves-Smart-James-Ayton lineup has only played three minutes.
The Lakers also need to be elite offensively. Very good or borderline great isn’t good enough for a team that’ll have its defensive struggles, even if Smart is in the first unit and more balanced lineups are used throughout the game.
The team can get closer to reaching its offensive ceiling if the players are more consistent with being organized offensively, which includes running plays/sets. It’s proven to be when the Lakers are at their best.
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As for the roster?
It’s obvious that a trade for a two-way wing/guard is needed. A player better than Smart who could guard bigger wings while also being a reliable 3-point threat.
The Lakers aren’t as far from being contenders as some might think. But if they don’t fix their obvious issues, we’ll be back here in early May talking about their season in the past tense for the third consecutive year.
