Set your Week 14 fantasy football lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every game on the slate.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Start: Jonnu Smith
Smith leads the Dolphins in target share (21.5%), first-read share (26.3%) and designed targets since Miami’s Week 6 bye. He leads all pass catchers in first downs per route run over that span. He’s been fantasy’s TE1 over the last three weeks, and Smith should remain busy Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Sam Darnold
Darnold has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his past six games. He gets a Falcons’ defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with an NFL-low 15 sacks this season. Minnesota has a healthy 26.5-point implied team total in this fast-paced matchup, and the Vikings have struggled mightily rushing at the goal line. Darnold is a top-10 QB this week.
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New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tracy Jr. lost some touches last week, but he bounced back with a 71% snap share, including a goal-line score (a week after losing snaps after fumbling). The rookie is getting 5.0 YPC, and he’s been fantasy’s RB16 since Week 8. Game script should stay manageable against a depleted New Orleans team, and Tracy Jr. could see added work with Malik Nabers dealing with a groin injury. Saints’ opponents have the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation over the last month, so Tracy Jr. is a top-20 back this week.
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sit: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard still saw a 79% snap share last week, but he lost 9-of-21 RB opportunities. Hubbard’s 67% rush share was his lowest since Week 2, as rookie Jonathon Brooks saw more work during his second game back from injury. Facing the league’s best defense is an even bigger concern this week. The Eagles have ceded just 241 yards per game over the last two months, which is 65+ yards fewer than the next best.
Philadelphia hasn’t allowed one running back to rush for 100 yards all season, and the Eagles just held Derrick Henry out of the end zone last week. The Panthers have a league-low 16.5-point implied team total and are 13-point underdogs, so game script will be a challenge. Hubbard is the RB22 in “expert consensus ranks” and admittedly may be needed during a week with six byes, but search for alternatives if possible.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sit: Nick Chubb
Chubb has scored three touchdowns over the last two games, but he finished with a season-low nine rush attempts last week — the same as Jerome Ford. Chubb has run just 20% of the routes since Ford returned four games ago, and he plays on a Cleveland offense with a high pass rate over expectation with Jameis Winston starting. Chubb has averaged an anemic 3.0 YPC since returning from another multi-ligament surgery, and he gets a stout Pittsburgh defense allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start: Cade Otton
Otton has been quieter over the last two games, but he could be busier Sunday. Mike Evans missed Thursday’s practice with hamstring and calf injuries, so he may be limited if he’s able to suit up at all this week. Otton has been the TE25 (5.9 fantasy points per game) during games with Evans this season, but he’s been the TE1 by a mile (16.1 fpg) without him (h/t FTN).
Emerging star running back Bucky Irving also missed practice Thursday, and though he returned on Friday, it remains to be seen if he’ll be limited at all in Week 14. Chris Godwin remains on IR, so Otton should see good volume against a Raiders’ defense getting shredded by tight ends; opposing TEs have averaged 8.6 catches, 101.2 receiving yards and 1.2 TDs over the last five games against Las Vegas. Raiders’ opponents have by far the highest PROE over the last month. Fire up Otton in fantasy lineups this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Start: Calvin Ridley
Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (776) and has averaged 8.5 targets and 82.7 receiving yards over six games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Will Levis has gotten 8.3 YPA while averaging 240.0 passing yards and 1.8 TDs over four games since returning from injury, so Tennessee’s passing offense has life.
Ridley gets a highly favorable matchup this week in a revenge game against Jacksonville’s league-worst pass defense that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Ridley’s target rate jumps from 18.2% versus zone up to 27.9% against man coverage, which the Jaguars have used at the league’s second-highest rate. Ridley is a borderline top-10 WR this week.
Sit Tank Bigsby, who lost 16-of-24 RB opportunities to a now healthier Travis Etienne Jr. coming out of Jacksonville’s bye last week. The Jaguars have the second-lowest implied team total (18.5 points) this week with Mac Jones starting.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Sit: Geno Smith
Smith is third in the league in passing yards per game (270.1), but he has just two multiple passing TD games all season. DK Metcalf missed practice Thursday with a shoulder injury, so he could be missing or limited Sunday. Moreover, the Cardinals have fielded one of the league’s most improved defenses lately (along with Seattle’s).
Arizona has yielded just four total touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last six games and the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five. These teams combined for only 22 points when they met just two weeks ago, and another lower-scoring, slow-paced matchup could be in store Sunday.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Start: Khalil Shakir
Shakir saw seven targets last week, but that actually marked a seaso- high in target share with Josh Allen attempting only 17 passes in a snowstorm. More volume should be there Sunday in a matchup indoors with this weekend’s highest total (49.5 points). Shakir ranks eighth in target share (29.1%) and 10th in yards per route run (2.51) this season. His target rate leaps from 18.3% against man up to 29.5% versus zone coverage, which the Rams have used at the league’s fourth-highest rate (77.1%) this season. He also ranks top 15 among 131 WRs in fantasy points per route run (0.50) versus zone. A healthy Rams’ offense could push Buffalo, so start Shakir this week.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Start: Isaac Guerendo
Guerendo suddenly went from waiver wires to a top-10 fantasy back this week after Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down with season-ending injuries. Guerendo has averaged the fourth-most YPC (5.9) this season and has fresh legs. The rookie needs to work on his vision and is far from a complete back, but while Mason might be the league’s slowest RB, Guerendo might be the fastest (giving him more fantasy upside).
The Bears have yielded the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but Chicago has ceded the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FP to RBs over the last five games. The 49ers offense isn’t the same without Trent Williams and a banged-up Brock Purdy, but San Francisco owns a healthy implied team total (24.5 points) and should have a favorable game script as four-point favorites. Patrick Taylor will also see work, but Guerendo belongs in fantasy lineups.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sit: Justin Herbert
The Chiefs’ pass defense has taken a step back recently, but Herbert still might be in a tough spot Sunday night. Ladd McConkey looks iffy with shoulder and knee injuries, and his absence would be felt harder against a man-heavy K.C. defense. Herbert took five sacks on just 23 pass attempts against an Atlanta defense that entered with a league-low 10 sacks mainly because no other receivers could get open last week.
Moreover, Herbert has gotten 8.4 YPA with a 106.9 Passer Rating versus zone coverage, but he’s gotten just 6.2 YPA with a 76.9 Passer Rating against man, which Kansas City uses at one of the league’s highest rates. The Chargers have one of the lowest implied team totals (20.5 points) this week, and fantasy managers starting Herbert will be hoping McConkey can go.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Start: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle saw 25-of-29 RB opportunities and set career highs in snap share (71%), carries (22) and rush yards (112) last week. He sports an 8.2 Utilization Score over the last two weeks, which is historically borderline RB1 territory. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most EPA/rush and the fifth-most RB rushing touchdowns this season, and Dowdle should see a heavy workload with CeeDee Lamb banged up. He’s a top-15 RB this week.
