I’m hesitant to back James Franklin in another big game.
Franklin-led teams are 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the spread against top-five teams. Franklin’s Lions haven’t beaten a top-five opponent since October 2016, losing 11 straight during the stretch.
That said, how “big” is the Big Ten championship game? Both teams are in the College Football Playoff regardless of result, and I’m unsure if Oregon wouldn’t rather be the five-seed, playing the 12-seed in the first round and the ACC or Big 12 Champion in the second.
Regardless, the matchup is favorable.
The Nittany Lions have pivoted to a more rush-heavy approach in recent weeks, and they should have no issues running all over a surprisingly weak Ducks rush defense. Oregon ranks outside the top 70 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, Rush Success Rate allowed, and Defensive Line Yards.
If Penn State can run the ball, it can keep Drew Allar out of obvious passing situations and help neutralize Oregon’s ferocious pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense is elite at all three levels. The only way you can beat the Lions is over the top, where they’re vulnerable to deep passing plays.
But Oregon isn’t overly explosive. Dillon Gabriel doesn’t have the strongest arm, and he lives in the short-to-intermediate area — his seven-yard average depth of target ranks 148th out of 154 qualified FBS quarterbacks.
Gabriel also struggles mightily under pressure, so maybe Penn State’s equally deadly pass rush can force the Heisman Candidate into a few key mistakes.
The pick: Penn State +3.5.
Texas (-3) over Georgia
Yes, Texas got bullied by Georgia in Week 8.
Nevertheless, there’s enough evidence to believe the Longhorns will improve mightily upon that first head-to-head performance.
For starters, there have been 54 instances of two teams that played in the regular season re-meeting in the conference title game. Among the losers, 36 improved their scoring margin in the second meeting (67 percent) by an average of 7.7 points.
I also think the first head-to-head meeting was closer than the 30-15 score indicates. Georgia only outgained Texas by 24 yards, and Texas generated five more first downs. The time-of-possession battle was dead even. Three lost fumbles sunk the ‘Horns, and they should see better luck in the second battle.
Of greater importance to this handicap is Georgia’s inconsistent play. Effort on a week-to-week basis is an issue, and the Bulldogs are consistently behind early in games. They have the most wide receiver drops in college football (36), and their rush defense is surprisingly weak, which doesn’t bode well in a matchup with the Longhorns’ improving rush defense. As an aside, watch out for Arch Manning packages as the Bulldogs struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks.
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Health has something to do with the inconsistency. The Bulldogs are banged up, specifically on the offensive line, so they’ve struggled to run the ball and protect Carson Beck, and that doesn’t bode well in a matchup with the Longhorns’ elite front seven.
Last week: 1-2. Texas A&M (L), Vanderbilt (L), Air Force (W)
2024 season: 22-17.
