Basketball is alive and well in the state of Texas.
It’s not quite the heyday of the mid 2000s when all three teams from the Lone Star State were legitimate title contenders, but the Southwest Division figures to be run by a Texas team for the foreseeable future.
The Spurs are currently in the lead in the division standings by a thin margin over the Rockets. Their rise to the top of the Western Conference has been fun to watch. The Spurs had modest expectations entering the season with a 44.5-win total, and they are already over 30 wins through 47 games.
It has been a great early-season story, but I’m not sure how long they can hold off the competition in their division. The Rockets may trail the Spurs in the standings, but their metrics are much better this season.
The Rockets have the third-best point differential (+7.3) in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Spurs are sixth (+4.9). The Rockets rank fourth in offense, and the Spurs rank ninth.
Sure, the Spurs have a one-man defense with Victor Wembanyama on the court, but when he’s on the bench, the team’s defense is slightly above average. That’s key considering his size, frame, and history of injuries.
He’s already had to miss 14 games this season, and each time he returned, the Spurs were cautious and brought him off the bench for multiple games before inserting him back into the lineup. Wemby has played 30 or more minutes in a game just three times since his initial injury in November.
If he isn’t on the floor, it’s tough to expect the Spurs to reach their ceiling; they’ll still be a formidable team (just ask the Thunder), but as the season wears on, the margins will get thinner and thinner with him off the floor.
The Rockets’ defense is much more balanced, even when you take a solid defender and elite rebounder like Steven Adams off the floor. He’s out indefinitely with an ankle sprain, but the Rockets have Dorian Finney-Smith available to bolster their defense. On the offensive end, Kevin Durant is proving that he can still carry playmaking duties despite not having an experienced point guard on the team.
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Looking at the remaining schedule for both the Spurs and Rockets also tells an interesting story. Compared to the Rockets, the Spurs have a tougher remaining strength of schedule — they still have to face the Thunder once, the Pistons twice, and the Nuggets three times.
The Rockets, who have the best home record in the NBA, have the most home games remaining on their schedule for the rest of the season. As a bonus, the Rockets have played two fewer games than the Spurs, which gives Houston a little more room to catch San Antonio in the standings.
As of this writing, the Spurs are -230 favorites to win the Southwest Division at BetRivers with the Rockets listed at +175. That line feels mis-priced considering how close the standings are already. I’ll gladly bet on the Rockets now before they start to make their late-season push.
The Pick: Rockets Win Southwest Division (+175, BetRivers)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
