This is not a Super Bowl that features a buffet of longtime NFL household names.
Drake Maye’s MVP contention initiated his stardom, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s rise to becoming the NFL’s receiving champion was just as unprecedented.
Smith-Njigba hit 1,700 yards for only the 15th time in the Super Bowl era. Sam Darnold fed him with double-digit targets in nine of all 17 regular season games and he caught a score in eight of them.
When Seattle needs him, Darnold peppers him.
On the sport’s grandest stage, Smith-Njigba gets a New England secondary that ranks last in defending opposing WR1s. Despite ranking within the top seven teams in defense against wide receivers overall, the Patriots allowed an average of 7.3 receptions and 103.5 yards this season to top targets.
Smith-Njigba’s route running is what has set him apart; he manufactures separation and seemingly turns man coverage into free yards on demand. He’s used everywhere from the slot, outside, motion — even out of the backfield, which is what eliminates any plans for shadow coverage.
He’s the most influential skill player of this Super Bowl cast, which can only translate to his prop-betting popularity. There are several ways to bet on his impact via usage and production, but it’s hard to find a more concrete market than his receptions prop.
Smith-Njigba’s line remains at 6.5, which is where it has resided most of the season. Starting at a price of -139, the heavy action on this mispricing pushed it to -154 odds at FanDuel.
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He caught seven balls per game in the regular season, clearing his receptions prop 12 times.
Smith-Njigba enters Levi Stadium now hot off 10 catches for 153 yards in the NFC Championship against the Rams.
Zach Charbonnet’s absence from the backfield has only added more to Smith-Njigba’s plate, so jacking his line up to 8 for plus money here becomes a worthy play.
With two top defenses, this projects to be a low-scoring affair. He’ll have a spoonful of Christian Gonzalez all night, so I’m more skeptical to bet on yardage volume notwithstanding his explosive play potential.
But even if the production from AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year comes from low aDOT, Darnold is sure to target him.
THE PLAY: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ Receptions (+118, FanDuel) | Super Bowl MVP (+550, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
