The Boca Raton Bowl epitomizes betting the bowl season, with James Madison facing Western Kentucky as seven-point favorites.
News regarding transfers and weather has shifted the betting odds in both directions, which has become the nature of the beast in recent years.
The Over/Under has slowly trickled down from 53 to 51.5, and I fully agree with the line move and am playing the Under. The only concern is that lower-tier bowl games often have aggressive play-calling on fourth down and similar reckless decisions. However, the variables all indicate we are headed for a low-scoring affair.
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | -7.5 (-110) | +225 | Over 51.5 (-105) |
| Western | +7.5 (-110) | -275 | Under 51/5 (-115) |
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky prediction
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
First, both starting quarterbacks have enrolled in the transfer portal. Second, neither of these passing offenses are all that impressive even when they had their starting signal-callers. And third, wind and rain should inhibit the passing game.
James Madison opened as a seven-point favorite and that moved as high as 9.5, once the betting market learned Hilltoppers starting QB Caden Veltkamp entered the transfer portal. However, the Dukes then officially lost their starter to injury, causing the line to shift to 6.5.
After that, we saw a bizarre twist. Veltkamp announced he will play in the bowl game, even though he remains in the portal. That is strange to me and I would be surprised if he played the entire game. The market essentially agrees, as that announcement did not shift the market. A very sharp play at one sportsbook is what moved the market from 6.5 points to seven.
“The Dukes and their 30th-ranked rushing offense at 190 yards per contest should take kindly to a Western Kentucky run defense that surrenders 221 per game and is near the bottom of FBS,” professional sports bettor Paul Bovi told Only Players. “James Madison will be clearly motivated in never having won a bowl game since executing the leap from FCS in 2022. Coach Bob Chesney will be experiencing his first bowl game in 24 years of coaching.”
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Chesney replaced Curt Cignetti, who left for Indiana last offseason, bringing several players with him in the transfer portal. However, it’s WKU that has the transfer issue this year with 10 starters and several reserves but we are unsure who is missing this game.
I often like to fade teams that lost their conference championship game and will do so here by betting against the Hilltoppers. But my main play is the Under.
PICK: Under 51.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
