There’s a less-obvious type of fantasy football lineup advice that I feel more folks should be aware of this time of year; if you are debating between lineup choices, go not only for the player who’s slated to play in the more high-scoring game (projected, of course), but also consider the player who has the most to play for, in real life.
Take the Broncos and Chargers tonight, for example. According to NFL.com, the Broncos currently have a 91% chance of making the playoffs; with a win or tie, Denver secures a playoff berth. With a loss, their chances drop to 85%. The Chargers are in a similar boat; they’re currently at an 87% chance. With a win, 97%; with a loss, 72%.
Both teams would be sitting pretty with a win, but the sweating starts with a loss. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, this matchup itself doesn’t ring exceptionally well for a fantasy football bonanza.
Nonetheless, it’s another game to take into account, so let’s go to the tale of the tape.
Should we be worried about Ladd McConkey being stranded on Surtain Island?
In the intro above I mentioned how this game, while very important to the teams on both sides, is a bit devoid of viable fantasy talent. In fact, the quarterbacks and their No. 1 targets are probably as good as it gets.
That brings us to McConkey, who has a claim of being the best rookie wide receiver this side of Brian Thomas Jr.
McConkey has fought through injury the past three weeks to deliver three straight double-digit fantasy performances. He’s been Justin Herbert’s first-read target more often than not and has shown the route-running and after-catch ability that made him a coveted wide receiver prospect coming out of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Of course, if you pull up McConkey in your fantasy app, you’ll see a glaring red “Den (30th)” next to his name. Not what you want to see next to any of your players in the fantasy playoffs.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a problem all season, and a big part of that is due to the play of outside cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has been a problem for opposing receivers this season; according to PFF, he ranks third among 216 cornerbacks in overall positional grade and second in coverage. He has four interceptions on the season.
But take heart, McConkey managers. The rookie has one thing working for him: he’s been a slot savant all season. McConkey has played in the slot on over 70% of the Chargers’ passing snaps this season, meaning that if L.A. implements that same usage, McConkey will dodge Surtain’s outside coverage for the vast majority of his reps. And, considering the Chargers are devoid of many threatening weapons on offense, it would behoove them to use motion and move McConkey around as much as possible in this game.
So, while McConkey’s ceiling might be lower than usual considering the overall matchup, he should offer the same safe floor he has pretty much all season. He has clear WR2 upside in this game.
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Starting Stone could be a Smartt move
(Sorry, I had to.)
The tight end position has once again let us down this season. We had hoped for a position that could offer 10+ points a week spread through a variety of options. Instead, we’d be happy to get six points in a given week. Unless you have Brock Bowers, Trey McBride (can someone PLEASE get that man a receiving touchdown) or George Kittle, chances are you likely have had your fantasy ears peeled for a higher-upside option.
If you’re struggling to fill your tight end spot, perhaps Stone Smartt could be of service tonight.
The 6-foot-4 Smartt has received a promotion on the Chargers offense of late, thanks to an injury to starting tight end Will Dissly. Justin Herbert and the offense has prioritized tight ends this season, especially with the emergence of Dissly, so naturally, our curiosity was struck when Smartt was named the starter. It was a bit surprising to see Smartt immediately jump into a large workload, collecting five of six targets for 50 yards. But considering the lack of threatening receiving options on the Chargers, maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise.
If Smartt played any other position, this would be a desperation start. But if you need help at TE and need a floor play with room for more (thanks to the playoff narrative surrounding this game, of course), consider Stone Smartt, who’s available in 96% of leagues. Keep in mind, however, the Chargers are activating Hayden Hurst off IR for tonight’s game. I still think Smartt will be in the lead for snaps, but Hurst could cut into some work, especially in heavy personnel.
Could Bo Nix be a playoff hero?
Bo Nix’s evolution this season from an age-based punchline to a viable — maybe even above-average — NFL starter has been wonderful to see. The same goes for him in fantasy. Nix has done damage on the ground, through the air and both at the same time at separate points this season. And sure, there have been some questionable moments — he’s coming off back-to-back games with multiple interceptions — but for the most part, Nix has been a solid start this season.
Recall back in Week 6, the last time the Broncos faced the Chargers, Nix put up 21.74 fantasy points, throwing two touchdowns and running for 61 yards on the ground. You’d expect that Nix would want to repeat that performance or surpass it, what with this essentially being the battle for second in the AFC West.
This Chargers defense was once very fearsome, but it just allowed Baker Mayfield to light it up for 288 yards and four passing touchdowns, good for 29.02 fantasy points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton will likely be pulling out all the stops to crush his division rival, and Nix should be a direct beneficiary of that.
If you made it to the fantasy semifinals with Bo Nix, then you were probably going to start him tonight anyway. So take this as your stamp of approval of him for the remainder of the playoffs, both in Week 16 and then in the fantasy championships, when Nix will square off against every quarterback’s dream — the Cincinnati Bengals defense.
