The expanded College Football Playoff didn’t erase the flaws of the system. It produced new ones.
It incentivizes teams to play soft schedules, greatly undervaluing strength of schedule and strength of record. It has no solution for the imbalanced schedules created by conference realignment. It allocated half of the first-round byes to a pair of teams ranked ninth (Boise State) and 12th (Arizona State) in the nation. It will hold four games in the best environments imaginable, then shift to blander neutral sites.
It is still the best postseason college football has ever created.
It is a new world, beginning Friday at one of the most iconic venues (Notre Dame) in the sport, in freezing conditions long foreign to college football’s postseason, featuring a team (Indiana) that would never have previously been given a chance to compete for a national championship.
The Hoosiers (11-1) set a school record for wins in Curt Cignetti’s first season as head coach, winning 10 games by at least two touchdowns behind the nation’s second-highest scoring offense (40.3 points per game) and sixth-ranked defense (15.7).
Indiana (+7) arrives for the in-state battle with nothing to lose. The greater pressure falls on Notre Dame, a dark-horse title pick, which has suffered three home losses as a heavy favorite in Marcus Freeman’s three seasons.
Cinderella has the opportunity it has been denied for more than a century. Cignetti — an assistant coach for 27 years and lower-level head coach for 14 years — has the reward for a life spent on the sideline.
“Google me,” Cignetti has said on multiple occasions. “I win.”
PENN STATE (-8.5) over Smu
James Franklin owns a 1-15 record against top-five teams, but the Nittany Lions could win their first national championship in nearly four decades without facing one of them. Penn State opens the bracket’s most favorable path with the weakest team in the field. The Mustangs will be overpowered in the trenches.
Clemson (+12) over TEXAS
The Longhorns hold significant advantages at numerous positions, but turnovers could close the gap. Quinn Ewers has been shaky all season, throwing picks in seven of his 11 starts — including three interceptions in his past two games — while Texas has been limited to fewer than 21 points in three of its past four games. The Tigers rank 11th in the nation in takeaways, averaging nearly two per game.
OHIO STATE (-7.5) over Tennessee
The overreaction to the Buckeyes’ loss against Michigan wasn’t surprising. Neither should a potential title run by the team that won at Penn State, destroyed Indiana and should have won at unbeaten Oregon. The best defense in the nation has allowed more than 17 points only twice in the past two seasons. Against SEC opponents .500 or better, the Vols barely cracked 20 points per game.
Onto the bowls …
Cure: Ohio (-4.5) over Jacksonville State
Both conference champions lost their head coaches to greener pastures. The Bobcats will be just fine without offensive-minded Tim Albin, riding their eighth-ranked defense to their seventh straight cover.
Gasparilla: Tulane (+10) over Florida
The Green Wave lost quarterback Darian Mensah to Duke, but backup Ty Thompson — a former five-star recruit, who previously played behind Bo Nix at Oregon — is using the bowl as a transfer portal showcase against the nation’s 98th-ranked pass defense.
Myrtle Beach: COASTAL CAROLINA (+10) over Utsa
The Chanticleers will be without the only two quarterbacks they used this season, but host a team that went winless on the road this season. Coach Tim Beck summed up the new reality of the sport: “This isn’t a program. Each year, you just build a team.”
Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois (-3) over Fresno State
Neither team will have its starting quarterback, but the Huskies at least have a backup with more than five career pass attempts, plus a top-10 pass defense.
Hawaii: San Jose State (-3.5) over South Florida
Nick Nash leads the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. The Bulls’ 133rd-ranked pass defense could make it his biggest game yet.
GameAbove Sports: Toledo (+7) over Pittsburgh
The Panthers haven’t won a game since October. Now, they may be forced to insert redshirt freshman David Lynch — who has thrown nine career passes — under center.
Rate: Rutgers (+7) over Kansas State
The Wildcats often looked unmotivated in their failed pursuit of a Big 12 title. Don’t expect them to match the energy or focus of the Scarlet Knights, who are 6-2 in bowl games under Greg Schiano.
68 Ventures: Bowling Green (-7) over Arkansas State
The Red Wolves allow more yards per play (6.9) than all but three teams in the nation. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. — who leads all tight ends with 100 receptions and 1,342 receiving yards — has the perfect matchup to improve his draft stock.
Armed Forces: Oklahoma (-4.5) over Navy
The Sooners will be shorthanded, but enough superior talent remains to slow Navy’s triple-option attack. Oklahoma ranked fourth in the nation in yards allowed per carry (2.9).
Birmingham: Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Vanderbilt
The Commodores had a memorable season, but faded on the final turn, dropping four of their past five games. Haynes King — who led an upset over Miami and near-stunner at Georgia — has the edge in the head-to-head dual-threat matchup with Diego Pavia.
Liberty: Texas Tech (+2) over Arkansas
The Hogs — who went 3-6 against Power Four opponents this season — are so pumped that coach Sam Pittman is returning next season that five offensive starters entered the transfer portal. Texas Tech, featuring the nation’s seventh-ranked offense, covered three of four games as an underdog this season.
Holiday: Syracuse (-14) over Washington State
The Cougars will be without their offensive coordinator and at least seven starters, including star quarterback John Mateer. First-year Orange coach Fran Brown wins before kickoff: “We don’t opt out around here. We play football.”
Las Vegas: Texas A&M (-3.5) over Usc
The problem with being a wunderkind is it sets you up to become the oldest 41-year-old in college football. If you’ve sold stock in Lincoln Riley, you’ll want to buy some in Mike Elko.
Fenway: UConn (+2.5) over North Carolina
The Tar Heels — who have seen multiple starters enter the transfer portal — went 1-7-1 against the spread as a favorite this season. Bill Belichick’s final years with New England prepared him well for what’s ahead.
Pinstripe: Boston College (+2.5) over Nebraska
The Cornhuskers accomplished their mission — despite losing five of their final six games — ending their seven-year bowl drought. Who knows what Bill O’Brien’s first season would have looked like if Grayson James took over sooner. The FIU transfer led the Eagles to three wins in their past four games.
New Mexico: TCU (-13) over Louisiana
The Horned Frogs’ Josh Hoover ranked seventh in the nation in passing yards, leading an offense that averages more than 430 yards per game. The Ragin’ Cajuns won’t be able to keep up with third-string, true freshman Daniel Beale — the owner of 98 career passing yards, no touchdowns and a 38.5 completion percentage — taking snaps.
Pop-Tarts: Iowa State (+3.5) over Miami
Even if Cam Ward runs wild, the Hurricanes defense will find a way to let him down again against the only team in the nation with multiple 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel).
Arizona: Colorado State (+3) over Miami (Ohio)
RedHawks coach Chuck Martin rarely steps up during bowl season, losing four of his five trips with Miami, including the past two seasons.
Military: N.C. State (-5.5) over East Carolina
The Wolfpack leaned on their backfield down the stretch, rushing for an average of 210 yards over the final four games. That does not bode well for the Pirates, who have allowed an average of more than 271 yards rushing in their past four losses.
Alamo: Colorado (-3) over BYU
Deion Sanders earns points for encouraging the Heisman Trophy winner, Travis Hunter, and his son/potential No. 1 NFL draft pick, Shedeur, to put on one more show.
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Independence: Louisiana Tech (+16.5) over Army
Since facing a parade of some of the nation’s worst defenses in the season’s first two months, the Black Knights have averaged less than 21 points in their past six games. Army caught a bad break with a change in opponent, facing Tech’s top-20 run defense, rather than a soft Marshall front.
Music City: Missouri (-3) over Iowa
The Tigers achieved the quietest 9-3 campaign imaginable, suffering their only losses to teams that spent the final week of the regular season in contention for a playoff spot. The Hawkeyes — following another on-brand season, ranking 119th in the nation in total offense — do not share the DNA of the opponents that give Missouri trouble.
Best bets: Indiana, Penn State, Boston College, Missouri
This season: 120-103-1 (19-25-1) (entering Thursday)
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30
