The conversation around NFL awards is entrenched around gambling, with sportsbooks — in eligible states — taking bets on every single one as we race toward the end of the season.
Aaron Schatz, the creator of football super-statistic DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and a voter of those finicky awards, wasn’t so sure that this is necessarily a good thing.
“I want to say this without criticizing my fellow voters. I feel like the rise of gambling on these awards has come with a rise in the narrative of these awards,” Schatz told The Post. “And the narrative almost becomes a runaway freight train that no one can stop.
“I think we are moving toward a world where people win these awards unanimously or close to unanimously every year because a sort of general narrative will set that player X is the player that deserves the award, and that player will win all of the votes or almost all of the votes.”
New York is one state that has punted on awards voting altogether, not allowing wagers on many events, including the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight, and any other outcome that isn’t directly related to on-the-field play.
Most other states do allow betting on NFL awards, and the odds are now getting wildly out of whack entering the final three weeks of the regular season.
Last year, Lamar Jackson closed as a -10000 favorite to win NFL MVP, while years past have seen similar closing odds.
“This is a little weird. There are some years where it shouldn’t be like that. There are some years where there are three or four good candidates where it would be good for all four candidates to get votes,” Schatz said.
All odds below are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
2024 NFL Awards prediction update
MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | -1000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +700 |
| Saquon Barkley | 14/1 |
| Jared Goff | 25/1 |
| Joe Burrow | 150/1 |
Schatz’s current MVP list appears to be Allen, Jackson, Saquon Barkley and, surprisingly, Joe Burrow, who has put up herculean-type efforts to keep his team in the playoff hunt.
However, that Allen freight train is just as intimidating as when he surges upfield.
“I think at this point, the only world where Josh Allen does not win MVP is where Lamar Jackson has a couple of amazing games on national television the next two weeks, or if Saquon Barkley breaks the rushing record, and even then I don’t think he will win,” Schatz said. “It just seems like the world has decided who will win the MVP before the 50 of us have voted.”
He added: “Burrow is an MVP candidate; he’s Ernie Banks. If they go 9-8, Burrow was probably so good that he will be up there with Allen and Jackson.”
Defensive Player of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| TJ Watt | -275 |
| Patrick Surtain | +500 |
| Nik Bonitto | 14/1 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 25/1 |
It’s hard to tell right now due to injuries, but it’s typically a pass rusher award.
Schatz added that Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto commands candidacy.
“We’ll have to see what happens now over the last three weeks because of injuries,” Schatz said.
Offensive Player of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | -400 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | +400 |
| Josh Allen | 14/1 |
“The idea that this award is the second-best quarterback award is stupid,” Schatz said.
His prevailing sentiment on the award is to make quarterbacks ineligible for the award and make it running backs and wide receivers only.
“Since MVP is pretty much a quarterback award at this point, this award should be for the non-quarterbacks.,” he added.
If Barkley breaks the rushing record, that’s where we lean here.
But Schatz also mentions that he will vote for Lions offensive lineman Penei Sewell and proposes an offensive lineman award for the league.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jared Verse | -200 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | +200 |
This one could come down to a battle between a Ram in Jared Verse and an Eagle in Quinyon Mitchell.
“I think this one is interesting because of how many people on the panel are analytically driven,” Schatz said. “With Mitchell, you want to look at all of his coverages, and with Verse, you want to look at all pressures, not just sacks.”
“Brandon Thorne keeps this thing called true pressure rate that keeps the quality of pressure and Verse is very high in that. It shows that he has an impact that goes far beyond just the sacks he has.”
Offensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | -2500 |
| Bo Nix | +1000 |
| Brock Bowers | +1200 |
While quarterbacks lead the oddsboards, Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is making his push.
“Bowers is a great candidate,” Schatz told The Post.
Whether it matters is up in the air, as he his prior comment about betting awards creates a pseudo-divisiveness with winners and losers.
The betting odds seem to overwhelmingly support Jayden Daniels as bettors reacted hard and fast to his prowess as the Commanders’ breakout quarterback.
Coach of the Year
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kevin O’Connell | -200 |
| Dan Campbell | +350 |
| Dan Quinn | +800 |
| Mike Tomlin | 12/1 |
| Sean Payton | 15/1 |
| Andy Reid | 18/1 |
This field has plenty of strong contenders.
“This is the award where it seems there is no narrative,” Schatz said on Coach of the Year. “I have no idea where this award goes, and there are so many great candidates.”
We’ll see how this season ends up playing out, since the Vikings could still win out and grab the top seed in the NFC.
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Comeback Player of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | -800 |
| Sam Darnold | +800 |
| Tim Patrick | 16/1 |
| Damar Hamlin | 30/1 |
The odds suggest that Sam Darnold is not able to bet on here.
“The AP has made it clear that thet want this to be an award for a player that is coming back from adversity off the field, not ‘I sucked,’” Schatz said. “I do think Burrow is the leader.
“I think what would be really good is to have another award, like the NBA does, called Most Improved Player, and unfortunately, we will not have that in time for Sam Darnold to win. In future years, I would love to have most improved player award.”
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
