Most bowl games have unique narratives, and the Hawaii Bowl fits that to the highest degree.
San Jose State coach Ken Niumatalolo returns to his native state, where he played high school ball and also started at quarterback for the Warriors. He also began his coaching career with UH as a graduate assistant.
Adding even more significance is the recent passing of Niumatalolo’s father, Simi, about 10 days prior to kickoff.
San Jose State is a three-point favorite over South Florida and the total has trickled up to 63.5. I agree with that line move and am playing the Over.
San Jose State vs. South Florida odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose State | -3 (-110) | -150 | Over 63.5 (-110) |
| South Florida | +3 (-110) | +125 | Under 63.5 (-110) |
San Jose State vs. South Florida prediction
8 p.m. ET, ESPN
My rationale starts with the pace. Of 134 FBS teams, the Bulls rank No. 1 in fewest seconds per play, while the Spartans rank 12th. Defensively, they both allow over 26 points per game. Both teams push tempo and this has all the makings of a track meet.
One concern is San Jose State standout wide receiver Nick Nash opting out of this game. The former quarterback led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. That will undoubtedly leave a void in the Spartans offense but the metrics indicate the high pace will still exist.
I have no opinion on the side but The Action Network’s Collin Wilson makes a solid case for underdog USF at +3.
“USF has a heavy rush explosive advantage. [Quarterback] Byrum Brown is practicing and would add to that advantage,” Wilson told Only Players via text message, referencing Brown’s potential return from injury. “[San Jose State] offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann has to completely change pass packages without Nash and should have a slow start.”
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Neither team had a winning record in their respective conferences I would classify as weak. The Spartans were more competitive against the better teams but they are also missing Nash, and Brown may return for the Bulls. That’s why I have to pass on a spread winner.
PICK: Over 63.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
