College basketball owns Saturdays, and this weekend is no different.
One of the biggest regular-season amateur basketball games of the year will tip off at 3 p.m. ET, when No. 4 Arizona faces off against No. 2 Houston.
The two Big 12 rivals will face off in what certainly looks like a crucial measuring-stick game, with the Cougars favored by 5.5 points across the betting market.
A big reason for the massive line in this game of two teams that should be a coin flip is that the Wildcats are expected to be without their star forward, Koa Peat.
Peat is batting a lower-leg muscle strain that forced him to miss their win over BYU on Wednesday, and he is also expected to miss Saturday’s game against Houston.
Kelvin Sampson’s group hosts the Cougars on Saturday with a fully healthy squad and is the rightful favorite in this contest.
Arizona vs. Houston prediction
The Wildcats are coming off a 75-68 win over a solid BYU squad earlier this week, where guard Anthony Dell’Orso posted a career high 22 points as he took on an expanded role with Peat out.
That’s something that certainly won’t take Houston by surprise, considering their defensive prowess on the perimeter.
Guard play is the linchpin for the Cougars, as Brayden Burries leads Arizona in points this season.
That’s your offensive outlook, but where Peat will be really missed is on defense, considering he can guard anyone on the floor as a forward for Arizona.
Houston, which is again led by its guard play, punishes mismatches, with Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp leading its backcourt.
The Cougars prefer a high-pressure style, challenging the other team’s defense in one-on-one matchups.
From a betting perspective, I watched every minute of BYU vs. Arizona, and the Wildcats really struggled to stop allowing open shots from the perimeter.
That will be bad news against Houston.
Still, the betting line of 5.5 is a bit high for me, considering I would have this near a coin flip if Peat were playing. For what it’s worth, KenPom has Arizona rated higher than Houston.
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For this game, I’m targeting the over 139.5 on DraftKings, which is about two points lower than projected on the betting market.
THE PLAY: Over 139.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
