While the majority of the media ecosystem has spent the first few days of Operation Epic Fury bickering over a predicted “forever war,” the real danger to the Iranian people, the United States, and the greater Middle East is being ignored.
As impressive as the United States and Israel’s achievement is, we can’t afford for it to be momentary, can’t let outside forces take the opportunity to reassert control in a chaotic situation.
The smoking crater that was once the top of Tehran’s Islamic regime, where they spent decades proudly chanting “death to America,” will not remain empty. There is not just one faction, one starry-eyed underclass “yearning to breathe free,” that stands ready and organized to safely take the reins. In reality, monarchists, Marxists, ethnic minority groups, secular republicans, and “moderate” — that is, slightly less brutal — regime officials are already preparing to vie for control.
The most popular of these factions in Western media is headed by the 65-year-old son of the deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the heir to the former Pahlavi dynasty, Reza Pahlavi. The chants “Javid Shah” (“Long Live the Shah”) have been heard in Iran, but diaspora surveys show support for him at only 31%. That’s the biggest majority so far, but his support is far stronger outside the nation than inside of it — and he has no militia ready to back him between the Elburz and Zagros mountains.
Far more concerning is the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a group that has rebranded itself as a “democratic” resistance force but carries a troubling legacy of Marxist-Leninist ideology and violent extremism. Led by Maryam Rajavi from exile in Albania, the MEK was founded in the 1960s as an opposition to the Shah, engaging in bombings against both Iranian and American targets before turning against the post-revolution Islamic Republic. Their alliance with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, which included attacks on their fellow Iranians, has cemented their reputation as traitors in the eyes of most citizens, eroding any domestic legitimacy.
Today, through the National Council of Resistance of Iran, they claim underground networks and a vision for secular governance, but reports of cult-like practices — such as enforced divorces, mandatory ideological indoctrination, and isolation from the outside world — raise alarms about their true intentions. With minimal popular support inside Iran and a history of prioritizing power over principle, the MEK’s attempt to fill the current vacuum could ignite factional violence, impose a new form of authoritarian control masked as democracy, and destabilize the region further by alienating key allies and inviting prolonged internal conflict.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo bewilderingly framed the MEK as “Iran’s democratic opposition … ready to step up and lead.” He was immediately mocked for promoting the openly Marxist group as the path forward for Iranians. China and Russia will most likely attempt to funnel weapons and resources to the MEK, which could quickly result in an effort to massacre ethnic minorities like the Kurds.
This is the ethnic group that the Trump administration will most likely support should Iran begin to Balkanize. Over the past year, Iran has struggled immensely with the Kurds along its western border with Iraq, and of the factions inside the collapsing Iran, this is the only one other than the regime itself that has the force of arms.
With their history of bitter treatment by Tehran and their relationship with the United States and Israel, the Kurds would be likely to split away. It’s unclear if the Khuzestani Arabs — the native Arab ethnic group inhabiting Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan Province — would temporarily ally with the Kurds to aid in this, or if Kuwait might assist the neighboring rebels — but the Trump administration is already in talks over potentially arming or training the Kurds, per the Wall Street Journal this morning.
While the Iranian regime’s standing orders for provincial leaders are to govern and defend pseudo-independently for the foreseeable future, Tehran cannot deploy reinforcements to fight the Khuzestani Arabs and Kurds effectively. It’s unclear whether the Baloch separatists — a Sunni native ethnic group that primarily inhabits Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan Province — such as Jaish al-Adl, would be able to seek resources in the east, bordering Afghanistan, as the Pakistani-Afghan war is currently stealing attention and resources.
The only other likely possibility is another collaborationist council or parliament and a new regime blending some of the rebels and representatives of dissident groups with former Islamic Republic officials. As we’ve seen in Syria and other recent “go along to get along” regimes, these often trade birthright for a bit of stew and act as satellite states for Russia or China.
Kurdish groups, the MEK, and the regime hold roughly all of the firearms in the country. Rest assured that bad actors will funnel arms to whichever group is willing to take orders and give them exclusive access to Iran’s oil and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow transit checkpoint through which 20% of the world’s entire petroleum supply flows.
The greatest danger is that outside powers will flood arms to those who have no interest in a non-authoritarian form of government, stealing the gift of victory from the United States and Israel to the Iranian people.
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Tony Kinnett is the national correspondent for The Daily Signal and host of its flagship nationally syndicated radio/TV show and podcast, “The Tony Kinnett Cast.” Follow him on X @TheTonus.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.
